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Did Iran Just Blink?

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Professor Fate
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Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Professor Fate » Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:10 pm

Late January 2017 - Iran fires mid-range missile, capable of carrying nukes.

Feb 3rd - The US places sanctions on Iran.

Feb 3rd to Feb 6 - Iran holds large scale military exercises and hurls threats at the US, and readies another missile launch on the same launch pad used in the January launch.

Feb 7th - Iran removes the missile from the launch pad.

Looks to me like they blinked. The Iranians are obviously aware that President Trump is most definitely not President Obama.


Things under Obama got a lot worse before they started to get better – and they only started to get better after the GOP took over half of Congress and put the brakes on spending.

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Fordama
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Fordama » Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:57 pm

They gave up their entire nuclear weapons program in a treaty three years ago. That is blinking.

This is just as likely if not more likely a technical issue, seeing how their last launch self destructed.

Fordama
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

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Professor Fate
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Professor Fate » Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:08 pm

First of all, no they didn't. They only delayed it 15 years. (That is if they obey the agreement).

Secondly, yes it may be a technical issue, or it may not be.

BTW, it blew up, yes, but you don't know that it self destructed, or if the Iranians destroyed it intentionally. Maybe they learned what they wanted to learn by then, and/or were concerned that it might be going astray at the end.
Things under Obama got a lot worse before they started to get better – and they only started to get better after the GOP took over half of Congress and put the brakes on spending.

MDDad
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby MDDad » Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:08 pm

Fordama wrote:They gave up their entire nuclear weapons program in a treaty three years ago. That is blinking.

Or another way to look at it is they delayed their entire nuclear weapons program in exchange for a bunch of cash and a huge jump-start to their economy.

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Wabash
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Wabash » Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:03 pm

Either way they didn't JUST blink.
I'm not saying you're stupid. I'm saying you have bad luck when it comes to thinking.

We only started hearing about fake news when we elected a fake president.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Omar Bongo » Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:41 pm

in exchange for a bunch of cash

By "a bunch of cash" you mean their money that we basically stole from them 35 years ago
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broman
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby broman » Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:06 pm

Thirty Five year delay/pause in nuclear program vs. failed/scrapped missile test. :roll:

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Omar Bongo
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Omar Bongo » Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:24 pm

Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, etc. have shown that if you don't mind getting whacked, threatening people with a stick is a largely ineffective tool for modifying behavior...but it does make the whacker feel a little better
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John Q. Public
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby John Q. Public » Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:42 pm

Professor Fate wrote:They only delayed it 15 years. (That is if they obey the agreement).

And if we back out of it...?
Don't look at me, I just work here.

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Professor Fate
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Professor Fate » Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:48 pm

Wabash wrote:Postby Wabash » Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:03 pm

Either way they didn't JUST blink.

Wabash...Do you ever get tired of being wrong? They did blink, according to Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, chief of the Revolutionary Guard's aerospace division. Hajizadeh, claimed that yesterday Iran launched a shorter range surface to surface missile that, he said, destroyed a target 155 miles away.

Meanwhile, the semi-official Tasnim news agency quoted Hajizadeh as saying the Revolutionary Guard had prepared a ballistic missile for civilian purposes but plans to launch it were canceled after a threat by the United States.

"We have prepared a ballistic missile for carrying a satellite for civilian purposes ... but some people sent it to the warehouse after a threat by the Americans. This behavior is humiliating," he said.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/new ... li=BBnb7Kz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7BC_7aXxEA

I'm doing the Biff Tannen strut right now Wabash. ROFL
Things under Obama got a lot worse before they started to get better – and they only started to get better after the GOP took over half of Congress and put the brakes on spending.

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Wabash
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Wabash » Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:08 pm

Fake news.

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Fordama
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Fordama » Thu Mar 09, 2017 4:54 pm

So they backed down by actually launching a pair of military ballistic missiles instead of an unarmed civilian ballistic missile.

And a day after North Korea launched missiles in the general direction of Japan.

Oh yes, Trump really has these guys cowed.

Fordama
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

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Professor Fate
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Professor Fate » Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:05 pm

There are no agreements banning shorter range missiles, Fordama, only medium to long range missiles. (Within the U.S. Department of Defense, a medium-range missile is defined by having a maximum range of between 1,000 and 3,000 km, not 250 km)
Things under Obama got a lot worse before they started to get better – and they only started to get better after the GOP took over half of Congress and put the brakes on spending.

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Fordama
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Fordama » Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:43 pm

Good job of missing the point!
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

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Professor Fate
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Professor Fate » Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:56 pm

One of us did. And Trump is doing just fine with N. Korea. THAAD being deployed...China doesn't like it... China knows it's time to handle the little N. Korean fruitloop, before additional US measures that they also won't like.
Things under Obama got a lot worse before they started to get better – and they only started to get better after the GOP took over half of Congress and put the brakes on spending.

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Fordama
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Fordama » Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:50 pm

Let me know how you like the weather when you go marching into North Korea. My Dad told me it was miserable.

Fordama
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

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John Q. Public
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby John Q. Public » Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:14 pm

Swift-moving Iranian vessels came dangerously close to a U.S. Navy surveillance ship in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, U.S. officials said Monday.

The apparent harassment of the USS Invincible on two occasions, on Thursday and Saturday, came amid Iranian state media reports that Iran had tested its newly acquired S-300 missile air defense system that is designed to intercept incoming missiles.

In addition, Fox News reported that Iran had test-fired a pair of ballistic missiles that destroyed a floating barge over the weekend, but that could not be independently confirmed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 09330fd634

Let me know when the blinking starts.
Don't look at me, I just work here.

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Professor Fate
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Professor Fate » Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:18 pm

A few observations.

First of all, someone tell the Washington Post that the USS invincible won't be built until sometime in the 24th century.
Image
Or were they referring to the ship from 1918?

It is the USNS Invincible. It is an unarmed or lightly armed tracking ship.

Secondly, leave the analysis to the analysts. My brother-in-law is a retired US Naval Intelligence officer. He speaks fluent Arabic (not sure about Farsi). He was stationed in Cyprus, Spain, and Maryland among other places. He picks up things about Iran's behavior that you would not even notice. For example, UN resolution 2231 bars Iran from testing ballistic missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. A UN panel has said it considered ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons to be those that can deliver at least a 500-kg (1,102-pound) payload within a range of at least 300 km (185 miles). Iran will always be saber rattling. They will always push the limits to seem tough. Notice that the most recent missile they allegedly fired, has a max of 300 km, and they made a point of saying it went 250 km. Those distances are not just a coincidence. They wanted to push the limits, without actually violating them...Something that didn't bother them before Trump "put them on notice."

Thirdly, before Iran was "put on notice" by the Trump administration, they fired off a MRBM (medium range ballistic missile) then had another on the pad but chickened out and pulled it.

Also, they were charging US ships and getting close enough to elicit warning shots from the Americans. Now, in the Thursday episode, there were no shots fired, as the Iranian ship (on a parallel course) must not have closed that threateningly on the Invicible (and its three British escorts). In the Saturday incident, they only came to within 600 yards, and then stopped. Supposedly the Invincible then changed direction.

http://www.ibtimes.com/iran-preparing-w ... ck-2503100

Interestingly, the Iranian version says ...the USNS Invincible, a tracking ship accompanied by a group of British ships, was crossing the Hormuz Strait area, when it “changed direction from the international route toward the boats of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy.”
“In an unprofessional move and in a maneuver accompanied by warnings, it approached our vessels at a distance of 550 meters,” Lieutenant Commander Mahdi Hashemi, in command of Zolfaqar battle flotilla, said, as cited by Tasnim news agency.
“Such provocations can have irreversible consequences,” Hashemi said, according to the Tehran Times.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also issued a warning..."

https://www.rt.com/news/379898-iran-us- ... fessional/
Things under Obama got a lot worse before they started to get better – and they only started to get better after the GOP took over half of Congress and put the brakes on spending.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: Did Iran Just Blink?

Postby Omar Bongo » Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:17 pm

What is he gonna do, tweet them into submission?
I thought it would be easier
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