2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Sixth Man
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2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Sixth Man » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:35 am

New Year. New thread. It should be an interesting year in the Sunset with the departure of Marina and CDM coming in. Where will they fall in terms of divisions? Edison DII, Los Al DII or DIII, CDM DIII, FV DIV or V, HB and NH DVI or DVII. No new coaches this year but new QBS at Edison, Los Al, CDM, and FV. Returners at Harbor and HB should tighten up the league a little bit.



SK80
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby SK80 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:16 pm

6Man do u know when the divisions are decided.... --:--

Sixth Man
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Sixth Man » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:27 pm

The register published them at the beginning of June but I am unsure when CIF decides.

Trenchdad
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Trenchdad » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:36 pm

Buddy connected to LBP says Los Al Coach-Fenton in running for HC.

Sixth Man
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Sixth Man » Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:41 pm

Untrue. Coach Fenton is not leaving Los Al nor has he put his name in at any other job. Bick will confirm this as he is close to the program and knows Coach Fenton personally.

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:59 pm

Trenchdad wrote:Source of the post Buddy connected to LBP says Los Al Coach-Fenton in running for HC.


I think it's a slam dunk he goes under the following conditions:

Either the pay is more than $5k a year, or he can get Raul Lara's old graveyard shift job at LA County probation

They move the campus close enough he can get there on his bike in 5 minutes from home

They get a booster club that's half as good as the current one at Los Al

They get support from the school district and admin like there currently is @ Los Al

They get enough kids to come out for football to actually be able to field a JV team

Change the colors from green and yellow (makes him nauseous) to pretty much anything else

He gets a selfie w/ Snoop.

Yeah, I think it's a slam dunk. Probably why he just signed another 2 yr deal to play LBP. He was looking for a target on his back when they play the Griffins.

Sixth Man
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Sixth Man » Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:46 pm

Like I said. Untrue

TheFan
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby TheFan » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:50 am

Future OC Buckeye/Griffin ?

downtothewire
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby downtothewire » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:18 am

Los Al likely dropping to D3.

SK80
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby SK80 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:23 am

DTW is that an assumption on your part or coming from coaches whom have a notion --:--

downtothewire
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby downtothewire » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:31 am

Just assumption but based on that formula they used to determine where teams will fall. I haven't heard anything. But their strength of schedule and playoff loss certainly will hurt them when looking at what other programs did last year

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:43 am

Done the preliminary math on 2018. It will be close, but I think they'll stay in D2. There's a metric called "Power Points" that isn't really very easy to figure out. It's another function of strength of schedule.

Prelim D2

Norco 474.71
Oaks Christian 474.12
Calabasas 473.99
Upland 469.68
Notre Dame/SO 468.69
Edison 463.95
Poly/Long Beach 452.33
Heritage 451.50
Rancho Verde 450.09
Cathedral 445.80
Tesoro 444.83
Los Alamitos 440.52
Lompoc 438.45
Great Oak 437.56
La Habra 436.31
Capistrano Valley 436.30
Westlake 435.20
Sierra Canyon 433.96

MDDad
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby MDDad » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:48 am

Bick, you show Alemany and Long Beach Poly dropping down from Division 1, so what two teams move up? Edison and Valencia?

downtothewire
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby downtothewire » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:03 am

I think Loyola would drop as well.

The power points metric is completely baffling

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:46 am

MDDad wrote:Source of the post Bick, you show Alemany and Long Beach Poly dropping down from Division 1, so what two teams move up? Edison and Valencia?


I goofed up on the sort, and had Edison in D1. Just LBP dropping and Valencia moving up. Alemany stays in D1.

I think this is a close representation of what the Power Point values are now that the divisions are numbered and sorted by strength.

D1
Tier 1 Win = 50 Loss = 44
Tier 2 Win = 47 Loss = 41
Tier 3 Win = 44 Loss = 38
Tier 4 Win = 41 Loss = 35
D2
Tier 1 Win = 47 Loss = 41
Tier 2 Win = 44 Loss = 38
Tier 3 Win = 41 Loss = 35
Tier 4 Win = 38 Loss = 32
D3-4
Tier 1 Win = 44 Loss = 38
Tier 2 Win = 41 Loss = 35
Tier 3 Win = 38 Loss = 32
Tier 4 Win = 35 Loss = 29
D5-9
Tier 1 Win = 41 Loss = 35
Tier 2 Win = 38 Loss = 32
Tier 3 Win = 35 Loss = 29
Tier 4 Win = 32 Loss = 26
D10-13
Tier 1 Win = 38 Loss = 32
Tier 2 Win = 35 Loss = 29
Tier 3 Win = 32 Loss = 26
Tier 4 Win = 29 Loss = 23

And here's the Bonus Point metric that factors into the Power Point total. This is a lot easier to quantify than the regular schedule metric above.

Playoff wins (bonus points) are awarded for each round that a football team wins a contest. Each round awards additional points based on a formula listed below. The Pac 5 Division and West Valley Divisions have win point total differentials of 10 for each round. The Inland, Southeast and Southwest Divisions have a win point total differential of 10. The Central, Eastern, Northern and Western Divisions have a win point total differential of 10. The East Valley, Mid‐Valley, Northwest and Southern Divisions have a win point total differential of 10.
All first round losses for all 13 division team earn 10 points (bonus points) for making the playoffs.
Pac 5 Division:
1st Round Win = 70 Loss = 10
2nd Round Win = 80
Semi Final Round Win = 90
Finals Win = 100
West Valley Division:
1st Round Win = 60 Loss = 10
2nd Round Win = 70
Semi Final Round Win = 80
Finals Win = 90
Inland, Southeast and Southwest Divisions:
1st Round Win = 50 Loss = 10
2nd Round Win = 60
Semi Final Round Win = 70
Finals Win = 80
Central, Eastern, Northern and Western Divisions:
1st Round Win = 40 Loss = 10
2nd Round Win = 50
Semi Final Round Win = 60
Finals Win = 70
East Valley, Mid‐Valley, Northwest and Southern Divisions:
1st Round Win = 30 Loss = 10
2nd Round Win = 40
Semi Final Round Win = 50
Finals Win = 60
11 Man Football Power Rankings Format for 2016‐2017
Information
2
x 2014 Power Points earned (based on formula provided)
x 2015 Power Points earned (based on formula provided)
x 2014 League Strength (based on Cal‐Preps ranking of leagues 70 to 1)
x 2015 League Strength (based on Cal‐Preps ranking of leagues 71 to 1)
x 2014 School/Team Ranking (based on Cal‐Preps ranking of teams 401 to 1)
x 2015 School/Team Ranking (based on Cal‐Preps ranking of teams 402 to 1)
The point totals for all schools has been added (2014 & 2015 power point totals plus the 2014 & 2015
league strength, and the 2014 & 2015 team rankings) and then divided by two to create the following ranking of all 11‐man football schools.

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TomDrake
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby TomDrake » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:59 am

Oaks should move up to 1. I'm not claiming they'll win it, or that they are D1 year in and year out, but they will be one of the top 17 teams in the SS next year. They have the talent to be in the D1 semis in 2018.

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:16 am

Depending on those pesky power points, they may swap spots with Alemany or Loyola - but I don't see them getting past the qtrs. Top 4 in 2017 likely the same again in 2018 for D1. One of the other Trinity schools might replace Mission, but I don't see Oaks contending up there.

MDDad
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby MDDad » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:54 am

Bick, thanks for posting the formula in its entirety(?) If anyone needed more proof that the CIF is staffed by an absolute bunch of morons, this should provide it. Whoever came up with that formula should immediately be sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

I've dealt with statistics, formulas and algorithms my entire professional life, but that is the most convoluted, overly-complex mathematical abortion I've ever seen...and all for placing high school football teams in their divisions. Unbelievable, not only for its absurdity, but for the fact it completely ignores one critical fact - that a single exceptional class at a school can result in a program placed in a division too high or too low for two years after the class has graduated.

SK80
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby SK80 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:26 pm

Agree @ all MDDad stated. Even I whom is VERY interested checked out half way through. Looks like another government entity at work..... :thumbsdown:

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:55 pm

MDDad wrote:Source of the post Bick, thanks for posting the formula in its entirety(?)


LOL...that was just the Power Points portion of the formula.

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