As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decrease

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Brooke
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As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decrease

Post by Brooke »

New information has been released about the impact of foreigners on American incomes. Sorry John, I don't see how to cut this down without omitting vital information.

As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decrease

According to a new memo from the Congressional Research Service, as the foreign-born population increased in the United States from 1970 to 2013, the lower 90 percent of income earners saw their wages decline.

Here are the facts:

* Between 1970 and 2013, the estimated foreign-born population in the United States increased from 9,740,000 to 41,348,066, respectively, an increase of 31,608,066 persons, representing a percentage increase of 324.5 percent.

* The reported income of the bottom 90 percent of tax filers in the United States decreased from an average of $33,621 in 1970 to $30,980 in 2013 for an aggregate decline of $2,641 or a percent decline of 7.9 percent.

* The share of income held by the bottom 90 percent of the U.S. income distribution declined from 68.5% in 1970 to 53.0% in 2013, an absolute decline of 15.5 percentage points.

The memo comes on the heels of a Center for Immigration analysis of Census data which found that in the next eight years the foreign-born population will reach a record high 51 million and will account for 82 percent of U.S. growth.

The U.S. already admits one million immigrants, a half million immigrant students, 700,000 guest worker foreign workers, and 70,000 refugees and aslyees (persons seeking or granted political asylum).
http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?A ... UlPAr.dpuf
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Wabash »

Decreasing wages have more to do with driving down the price of wages via outsourcing than immigration policy.

That's capitalism.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by MDDad »

Brooke, please take it from someone who worked with these kinds of numbers for many years: This is a bad study. First, because it asks us to assume that correlation necessarily means causation. And second, because it guides us into concluding that new immigrants have pulled down the wages of existing Americans. While that may or may not be true, it certainly isn’t evidenced by the study.

Let me show you how the arithmetic works: John Doe, Joe Smith and Jack Jones all live on the same block. They each earn $40,000 a year and are in the lowest 90% of American wage-earners. The next year, they each get promoted and receive a generous 10% raise to $44,000 a year. However, Juan Gonzalez also moves onto their block. He is an immigrant, and whether he’s legal or illegal is irrelevant. He picks lettuce and mops hotel bathrooms for a living and makes $15,000 a year. Now all four of them are in the lowest 90% of American wage-earners. Even though John, Joe and Jack got great raises, the average pay of this lowest 90% has dropped from $40,000 a year to $36,750.

So rather than pulling down the wages of actual Americans, immigrants are much more likely to have lowered the annual incomes of the lowest 90% of wage-earners by adding their lower incomes to the pool and diluting the average. Intentionally or not, it's unfortunate that the study offers no data on what happened specifically to non-immigrant incomes.

I’m all for studies that provide causative links between social and economic issues, but I can't tolerate sloppy or dishonest ones.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Brooke »

This study has to do with foreign workers in the USA which includes workers in the USA on H-1B programs for example. Did you take those into account?

I do appreciate your time and effort, by the way, but you shouldn't automatically assume that I am stupid. :)
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Parrotpaul »

Opinions vary.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by crayegg »

You obviously have no clue as to MDDad's point, so there is evidence....
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by MDDad »

Brooke, whether or not the study included H-1B workers is also irrelevant. The conclusion should have been the same: That when very low-wage-earning immigrants, legal or illegal, permanent or guest-worker, are added to the pool of the lowest 90%, the mean will go down. That will be true even if the wages of existing Americans goes up. The study accidentally or conveniently left that out.

I could do a similar study that results in findings something like this: "The reported income of the bottom 90 percent of tax filers in the United States decreased from an average of $33,621 in 1970 to $30,980 in 2013 for an aggregate decline of $2,641 or a percent decline of 7.9 percent." During that same period, the number of blacks, Hispanics and women promoted into executive positions in American companies increased by 500%(?). Unless I add detail, I will be leading you to the conclusion that the promotion of minorities causes the pay of wage-earners to drop. That's dishonest and/or lazy, and it's what the subject study did.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by John Q. Public »

And in that same time period, immigrants caused the lower 90% of wage earners to start driving smaller cars, wear more man-made fabrics, ride shorter surfboards and they almost killed the canvas sneaker business. But they did wonders for LA's air quality. Absolutely bogus "study."

Oh. BTW. The lower 90% is everybody making less than around $175,000 a year. See there, Mr. corporate vice president? You could have bought a bigger McMansion if it wasn't for your gardener.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by broman »

https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentclo ... 01/crs.pdf
Snip from the CRS report
It bears noting that a causal relationship between two variables – whereby change in one variable causes
change in another variable in a systematic or consistent manner – cannot be determined through a simple
graphic representation. Hence, CRS is unable to draw any conclusions or determine any relationship
between two variables by virtue of those variables being presented together in a graph.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by John Q. Public »

The more interesting number - and one that a causal relationship can be shown for - is way at the bottom, where it says the percentage of income held by the bottom 90% fell by 15.5% during that time. But that has nothing to do with immigration. Unless you want to count the immigration of our incomes to somebody else's bank account in the Cayman Islands.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Troglodyte »

On top of Latino immigrants usually being at the very bottom of the wage earners they send $53Billion in remittance south of the border LINK.. Either we're paying them too much, or their poverty is self inflicted.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Parrotpaul »

And it isn't like the Obama Administration is doing nothing about illegal immigrants.


The report suggests two possibilities as to why Mexican immigrants are not sending as much money back home as they used to.

One is the housing market crash of 2008, which had a direct impact on the number of Mexican migrants who could find work in construction. The second is the record number of deportations during President Barack Obama’s administration
.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by MDDad »

JQP wrote:the percentage of income held by the bottom 90% fell by 15.5% during that time. But that has nothing to do with immigration.
That's not true, as immigration is partly responsible for that shift as well. The lower 90% is a real number of people. As you load the bottom of that 90% with increasing numbers of low-earning immigrants, you force the top of that 90% into the lower end of the top 10% range. The entire income curve of the 90% shifts down (as evidenced by the lower average income), and their percentage of total income shifts down as well. Trust me.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by MDDad »

Parrotpaul wrote:The second is the record number of deportations during President Barack Obama’s administration.
How many more times are we going to repeat this myth? Early in President Obama's first term, the metrics for counting deportations were changed to include those detained and turned back at the border. When an apples-to-apples comparison is made, actual deportations made during the Obama administrations are down from previous ones.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by John Q. Public »

MDDad wrote:As you load the bottom of that 90% with increasing numbers of low-earning immigrants, you force the top of that 90% into the lower end of the top 10% range.
True. Except "low-earning immigrants" are only part of the problem. And it's hard to draw any conclusions from a study that only looks at the bottom damn near everybody. Either way, the fact that incomes, regardless of who earns them, have decreased by so much isn't a good sign.

Hey, but it's a beautiful day. Thank an immigrant. Or blame him for it being cloudy. Your choice.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Parrotpaul »

How many more times are we going to repeat this myth? Early in President Obama's first term, the metrics for counting deportations were changed to include those detained and turned back at the border. When an apples-to-apples comparison is made, actual deportations made during the Obama administrations are down from previous ones.

"We" didn't repeat it....Trog's Pew Research story stated that...I just pointed it out. I'd be happy to look at your source as well.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Brooke »

crayegg: You obviously have no clue as to MDDad's point, so there is evidence....
What happened? Are you going to finish your thought or is that it?
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Brooke »

Parrotpaul: And it isn't like the Obama Administration is doing nothing about illegal immigrants.
You were told earlier that the Obama administration lies about the number of deportations because they include illegals turned back at the border. No other administration has done that.

At any other time in this country's history Americans would have been dumbfounded to learn that the U.S. government under the orders from the president had the gall to set up hotlines for illegal aliens to call and complain about agents from three different government agencies that are in place to protect American citizens.

The Homeland Security Department has set up hotlines for illegal immigrants who believe their rights under President Obama’s amnesty policy have been violated.

In a memo announcing the customer complaint line, U.S. Customs and Border Protection asked illegal immigrants to “please tell us about your experience” if they believe they were treated “contrary to the new DHS enforcement priorities.”

The department alerted “stakeholders” last week of three complaint hotlines: one for CBP, which oversees the Border Patrol; one for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which handles immigration laws in the nation’s interior; and one for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which is poised to handle the millions of amnesty applications expected to be filed.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... z3Za9CsHTS
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Parrotpaul »

Then I would conclude the Pew Research report posted by Trog is a bunch of crap. It was Pew who made that statement. Factoring that as a part of their argument would cause the study to be bogus...right?? Go "tell" them what they should do and what is and what isn't accurate.....make sure you show them the Washington Times article. They must have missed it. Let us know how that works out.
Last edited by Parrotpaul on Fri May 08, 2015 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: As Foreign-Born U.S. Population Increases, Incomes Decre

Post by Brooke »

The study addresses the title of the thread, that is, showing how incomes have decreased as the number of foreigners in the USA increase. I fail to see how the study is dishonest or sloppy.

Who else do American workers compete against for jobs in the United States other than foreign workers?
Who in their right mind uses a welcome sign to mean people who would come into their home uninvited, paid by their neighbors who are using their illegal labor, overrun the neighborhood, and refuse to leave?
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