'Historic' Tax Refunds Will Extend Retail Boom into 2019

[Vilepagan]

Source of the post Remember those "crumbs" Nancy Pelosi was talking about?

Wasn't she talking about Republicans?

[John Q. Public]

I had to go back and re-read the article the Professor quoted. The source was Bloomberg, BTW, and not MSN, which should have been noted in the OP.

The law cut tax rates for some individuals, but lots of Americans haven’t seen all those savings flow through to their paychecks, according to Wells Fargo & Co. That will be made up during a “historic” refund season early next year, with, for example, a household earning $45,000 a year realizing 70 percent of its tax benefit, the bank said Friday in a research note.

Note that the income bracket is a little low, and it said that people in that bracket would receive 70% of their benefit from their refunds but it also said people with incomes from $55,000 to $75,000 would get "as much as half" of their benefit from it. Could it be that the people being adversely affected are in the middle bracket and people in the lower bracket could get a benefit? Or were the article and the Wells Fargo analysts just wrong? Or are the early reports wrong? How could the analysts have missed the part about the IRS, possibly for political reasons, adjusting withholdings down? And why would politicians target a bracket that's probably mostly hourly workers who would be likely to attribute a (not large) bump in their paychecks to simply getting more hours instead of their taxes going down?

The article also said that Home Depot had looked at its employees' paychecks and that only 1% of them had adjusted their withholding, so... uh oh. Or not. Maybe we have to wait till April to find out which of the stories is correct.

[Wabash]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say those getting lower refunds are not taking advantage of the new deductions for their private jets.

[John Q. Public]

IF taxes really are lower, which I have no way of telling, personally, having the savings not be reflected as bigger refunds is about as boneheaded as it gets.

[SK80]

Actually you want the lowest refund, the government holding YOUR money and paying NO interest to you is not optimum for the tax payer. A smaller refund means the government took less from you.

[John Q. Public]

The Census Bureau confirms my parking lot survey.

Sales at retailers fizzled in December and posted the biggest decline in nine years in a worrisome sign for the U.S. economy, according to a long-delayed government report.

Retail sales sank 1.2% in December, the U.S. Census Bureau said Thursday. It’s the largest drop since September 2009, a few months after the end of the Great Recession.

~snip~

The disappointing drop in sales battered stocks in early Thursday trades, but many economists were skeptical that sales were quite the disaster the report seemed to indicate.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retai ... 2019-02-14

The report includes a 3.9% drop for internet sellers and a 3.3% drop for department stores. Car sales were up 1% and home centers were up 0.1%. Early reports aren't always especially accurate.

[crayegg]

It's the middle of February, this is an early report on last December? Why was the report "long delayed" I wonder....

Oh, government shutdown, duh.

[Vilepagan]

Source of the post Remember those "crumbs" Nancy Pelosi was talking about?

Yeah...do you?

Looks like Nancy might have been on to something.

[Ruelas]

I can hardly believe Nancy Pelosi is on to anything at all. She's as out of touch as they get.

[Tommy Tar]

The first quarter 2019 went very well.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/stock-m ... tions.html

Dow rises 100 points after strong earnings from broad range of companies.

Stocks rose on Tuesday as Wall Street cheered stronger-than-expected quarterly profits from some of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 100 points higher, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite traded about 0.8% higher. The Nasdaq 100, which includes the 100-largest companies in the composite index, hit a record high.

“Among the key companies that have reported, most of them have beaten expectations,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. “That means we’re probably going to escape an earnings recession. That will be key for the market to rally from here.”

Dow members Coca-Cola and United Technologies reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Tuesday. Their shares rose 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively.

Twitter shares jumped 16.3% on its stronger-than-expected results. The social media company said its monthly active users totaled 330 million, more than a FactSet estimate of 318 million.
=snip=

[SK80]

"The first quarter 2019 went very well." ~ TT

Yes indeed it did, just checked my SEP IRA account, all time high today!

Very happy with my long term holds in the retail sector as well, WMT and TGT.

My inbox and newsfeed regarding my investments and the economy were lit up all day, every day for the week......

US MARKETS
S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally to record closing highs after strong earnings from broad range of companies
PUBLISHED TUE, APR 23 2019 • 1:56 AM EDT UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallied on Tuesday to notch record closing highs as Wall Street cheered stronger-than-expected quarterly profits from some of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies.

The broad index closed 0.9% higher at 2,933.68, topping its previous record close of 2,930.75. The S&P 500 also ended the day just below its intraday record of 2,940.91. The Nasdaq closed up 1.3% at 8,120.82. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, gained 145.34 points to close at 26,656.39 and was 1.1% from an all-time high.

Stocks rise on strong earnings
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-april-23-2019-130924911.html

"As of Tuesday, just over one-fifth of the S&P 500’s market capitalization had reported first-quarter results. Earnings were beating by 6.0%, and 78% of companies beat their bottom-line estimates, according to an analysis by Jonathan Golub, chief equity strategist for Credit Suisse. Over the past three years, companies beat their earnings expectations by an average of 5.4%, with 71% exceeding bottom-line estimates."

Retail Sales Surge Lifts Dow Jones
https://www.investors.com/news/economy/retail-sales-surge-april-dow-jones-consumer-strength/

"Retail sales rebounded in a big way in March, surging 1.6%"

The Tale of the Prosperous Consumer-US Retail Sales
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-tale-of-the-prosperous-consumer-us-retail-sales-201904181639

American consumers asserted the right to spend in a grand fashion in March boosting retail sales to the fastest expansion in 18 months as the booming job market put the shutdown marked holiday season to rest.

"Retail sales surged 1.6% last month reported the Commerce Department on Thursday, far ahead of the 0.9% forecast and February’s 0.2% decline. The GDP component control group rose 1.0%, more than twice its 0.4% prediction and its revised 0.3% drop in February."

[Wabash]

Amazing what kind of economy is possible when a trillion dollar deficit is allowed.

[Tommy Tar]

Even after a very hard winter and a 3 month federal government shutdown the US economy grows by 3.2%.

[Wabash]

Being helped along by the trillion dollar deficit incurred by the GOP majority in congress as they walked out the door.

[Tommy Tar]

5/3/19
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/nonfarm ... -2019.html
Hispanic unemployment lowest ever.
Best for women sense 1953
Record jobs for high school dropouts.
US economy is the envy of the world.

Average hourly earnings growth held at 3.2% over the past year, a notch below Dow Jones estimates of 3.3%. The monthly gain was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% increase, bringing the average to $27.77. The average work week also dropped 0.1 hours to 34.4 hours.
=snip=

The average is $27.77 an hour?

Even ex-cons are finding good jobs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/why-com ... rkers.html

[Wabash]

Amazing what kind of economy is possible when a trillion dollar deficit is allowed.

[John Q. Public]

Source of the post Best for women sense 1953

What in the hell kind of claim is that? Hardly any women worked in 1953. And how is it "best?"

"Puzzling" is still the word I'm hearing on the economy. Given the unemployment and productivity rates, wage growth and inflation should both be higher but they're not. We're still in the slow growth trend we've been in since around 2011. Employers seem to have figured out how to get more work out of workers without increasing their pay to the point that it's reflected in prices. Very strange.

And speaking of taxes.... I have a dead car that isn't good for much other than scrap. My choices are to sell it to Pick-A-Part for $350 or donate it to charity. In the past, that would have meant $150 off my taxes but now it just means a $350 good feeling in my heart. The new law must really suck for charities.

[Wabash]

The U-6 unemployment statistic is no longer cited. It used to be cited all the time until recently.

[Vilepagan]

Source of the post 5/3/19
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/nonfarm ... -2019.html
Hispanic unemployment lowest ever.
Best for women sense 1953
Record jobs for high school dropouts.
US economy is the envy of the world.

Hmm...

5/6/19

Stocks fall after Trump threat; Oil drops; Occidental presses

London (CNN Business)1. Trump tariff threat: Global stock markets plunged and oil prices fell after President Donald Trump threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese goods.

The move could reignite a trade conflict between the world's two largest economies following months of relative calm in the markets and solid returns for investors.
US stock futures were sharply lower. S&P 500 futures dropped 1.7%, Dow futures were down 1.8% and Nasdaq futures were off 2.2%. Losses for US crude oil futures exceeded 2%.

www.cnn.com/2019/05/06/investing/premar ... index.html

I guess things were just too good...

The genius that is our dear leader has struck again.

[Tommy Tar]

What are you talking about? The DOW was down only 60 points.