Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

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AsIfYouKnew
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby AsIfYouKnew » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:22 pm

Wabash wrote:One doesn't need formal education on econ to have observed what works and what doesn't. Take it however you want. The reality is the economic theory being pushed by conservatives has been shown to be a complete failure in the last 30 years.


Another complete falsehood.

Tax cuts spurred numerous periods of economic growth, going all the way back to JFK. Your insight into economics is a one trick pony, and that pony has been hobbled.


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AsIfYouKnew
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby AsIfYouKnew » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:23 pm

Wabash wrote:Oh what the heck. Let's tell them.

I was a history major.


How'd that work out for you. :giggle:
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joefutbol
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby joefutbol » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:38 pm

AsIfYouKnew wrote:
Another complete falsehood.

Tax cuts spurred numerous periods of economic growth, going all the way back to JFK. Your insight into economics is a one trick pony, and that pony has been hobbled.


What tax rate is optimal?

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tLIB
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby tLIB » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:48 pm

The Republicans' hands are tied by their pledges not to raise taxes. They have signed documents swearing not to raise taxes ever. Because of that, Obama is the one that has to give in - The Republicans can't raise taxes even if the Chinese invaded the Western United States and the East needed more money to fight a war with them. There can be no negotiation on the tax issue.

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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby joefutbol » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:53 pm

The Democrats should just suggest all taxes be eliminated for 2013.

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AsIfYouKnew
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby AsIfYouKnew » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:04 pm

I think this says it best.

Image
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby AsIfYouKnew » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:05 pm

I am not sure. However, I can tell you that under the Bush tax cuts, the % of total federal revenues paid by the rich went up, not down. Who cares what the actual percentage is if you can get more money out of them? Arguing over whether one's rate should match another's is just sophistry, IMHO.
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tLIB
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby tLIB » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:14 pm

I think we are going to fall off the fiscal cliff. Capital gains taxes will rise to 47 percent. Spending will be cut, except the things the Republicans want cut (Medicare etc). Defense will be cut drastically. And then the President can negotiate a tax cut for the middle class.

But there is a problem. The economy will be hurt. We could enter another recession. A recession will push tax revenue lower and things could get worse for everyone. The debt will also grow even more.

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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby joefutbol » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:21 pm

tLIB wrote:I think we are going to fall off the fiscal cliff. Capital gains taxes will rise to 47 percent. Spending will be cut, except the things the Republicans want cut (Medicare etc). Defense will be cut drastically. And then the President can negotiate a tax cut for the middle class.

But there is a problem. The economy will be hurt. We could enter another recession. A recession will push tax revenue lower and things could get worse for everyone. The debt will also grow even more.


If we really want to erase our debt, isn't this inevitable?

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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby Parrotpaul » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:38 pm

AsIfYouKnew wrote:
Another complete falsehood.

Tax cuts spurred numerous periods of economic growth, going all the way back to JFK. Your insight into economics is a one trick pony, and that pony has been hobbled.


Not according to Henry Blodgett, CEO of Business Insider

You say it is a complete falsehoodf, and Henry Blodgett..well respected Wall Street analyst....says tax cuts don't lead to growth, and he presents his analyis. Now my dilemma here is who do I believe more, Blodgett or AIYK? But without rebuttals to what Mr. Blodgett offers, I would have to come down on his side. He shows the numbers and argues his case pretty well.
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tLIB
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby tLIB » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:44 pm

tLIB wrote: But there is a problem. The economy will be hurt. We could enter another recession.


joefutbol wrote: If we really want to erase our debt, isn't this inevitable?


You are right. Some people say you need to do austerity during the good times, not the recessions. Perhaps Bush's Bubble could have been slowed if he had done that - cut spending and raised taxes - perhaps in 2005.

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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby Wabash » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:58 pm

AsIfYouKnew wrote:
How'd that work out for you. :giggle:

Pretty good. Made a lot of money working for and by myself.

AsIfYouKnew wrote:
Another complete falsehood.

Tax cuts spurred numerous periods of economic growth, going all the way back to JFK. Your insight into economics is a one trick pony, and that pony has been hobbled.

If only economics and history were mutually exclusive you would realize the fallacy of your argument. Yes, JFK lowered taxes to spur economic growth. He lowered them from over 90% to about 70%.

They were later raised to offset the deficits that occurred as a result of that act. Reagan did the same thing during his administration. Lowered taxes and then raised them to offset the massive borrowing caused by the deficits of the budgets he negotiated with congress.

The only pony hobbling that has occurred is the belief that tax cuts create jobs. There is no historical or empirical evidence that shows that to be the case. In fact just the opposite. History has shown the US economy has had higher levels of productivity when the marginal tax rate was above 50%.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby Wabash » Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:05 pm

joefutbol wrote:
What tax rate is optimal?

That's a good question. If you ranked each year since 1950 by overall job growth, the top five years would all boast marginal tax rates at 70 percent or higher. The top 10 years would share marginal tax rates at 50 percent or higher. The two worst years, on the other hand, were 2008 and 2009, when the top marginal tax rate was 35 percent. In the 13 years that the top marginal tax rate has been at its current level or lower, only one year even cracks the top 20 in overall job creation.

We have a current top marginal rate of about 35%. The lowest in decades. Yet we have significant unemployment.

This is why the "tax cuts create jobs" sound bite is really nothing more than conservative mythology.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby AsIfYouKnew » Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:38 pm

Parrotpaul wrote:
Not according to Henry Blodgett, CEO of Business Insider

You say it is a complete falsehoodf, and Henry Blodgett..well respected Wall Street analyst....says tax cuts don't lead to growth, and he presents his analyis. Now my dilemma here is who do I believe more, Blodgett or AIYK? But without rebuttals to what Mr. Blodgett offers, I would have to come down on his side. He shows the numbers and argues his case pretty well.


Being a WS analyst does not make one an economist. Finance and economics are not the same thing.

I read his CV. Did you also see this:

Prior to founding Business Insider, Henry was a top-ranked Wall Street Internet analyst. He was later keelhauled by then-Attorney General Eliot Spitzer over conflicts of interest between research and banking and booted out of the industry.
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby Parrotpaul » Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:30 pm

So what? Can you rebut his material?
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby AsIfYouKnew » Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:40 pm

Parrotpaul wrote:So what? Can you rebut his material?


Why?
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby AsIfYouKnew » Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:43 pm

Wabash wrote:That's a good question. If you ranked each year since 1950 by overall job growth, the top five years would all boast marginal tax rates at 70 percent or higher. The top 10 years would share marginal tax rates at 50 percent or higher. The two worst years, on the other hand, were 2008 and 2009, when the top marginal tax rate was 35 percent. In the 13 years that the top marginal tax rate has been at its current level or lower, only one year even cracks the top 20 in overall job creation.

We have a current top marginal rate of about 35%. The lowest in decades. Yet we have significant unemployment.

This is why the "tax cuts create jobs" sound bite is really nothing more than conservative mythology.


You see, this is where history and economics differ. You look at a number on a chart, and say "this happened then, and so did this" and assume there is causation. However, in economics, you have to study things one change at a time. It is not so easy to look at historical data and impute anything from it without rigorous stochastic analysis. But then again, you can go ahead and dismiss the last 100 or so years of economic theory with your trite little sayings. After all, this is a free country.
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby Wabash » Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:52 pm

AsIfYouKnew wrote:
You see, this is where history and economics differ. You look at a number on a chart, and say "this happened then, and so did this" and assume there is causation. However, in economics, you have to study things one change at a time. It is not so easy to look at historical data and impute anything from it without rigorous stochastic analysis. But then again, you can go ahead and dismiss the last 100 or so years of economic theory with your trite little sayings. After all, this is a free country.

I believe there is a causation because no one has yet to prove otherwise. There are numerous examples of the outcome being repeated. You spout a theory that has historical and factual data proving that it leads to an inferior result. I can point to Keynesian policies that are recognized to have improved the economic climate. You cannot.

It is a free country. I choose to live in a country that recognizes that facts matter. As oppposed to the typical conservative lives in a contemporary mindset that ignores facts. It was one of the many reasons why conservatives were so surprised when Obama beat Romney by such a significant margin. Especially given the number of conservative sources who were spouting the belief that Romney was going not only going to win, but win by a landslide.

So it is the same with the conservative beliefs in economic policy. A great example being the belief that raising taxes will kill economic recovery. There is no empirical evidence to support that belief. In fact that seems to be the current conservative stochastic methodology when discussing economic issues.

Live in the bubble. Die in the bubble.
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby AsIfYouKnew » Thu Dec 06, 2012 5:09 pm

Wabash wrote:I believe there is a causation because no one has yet to prove otherwise. There are numerous examples of the outcome being repeated. You spout a theory that has historical and factual data proving that it leads to an inferior result. I can point to Keynesian policies that are recognized to have improved the economic climate. You cannot.

It is a free country. I choose to live in a country that recognizes that facts matter. As oppposed to the typical conservative lives in a contemporary mindset that ignores facts. It was one of the many reasons why conservatives were so surprised when Obama beat Romney by such a significant margin. Especially given the number of conservative sources who were spouting the belief that Romney was going not only going to win, but win by a landslide.

So it is the same with the conservative beliefs in economic policy. A great example being the belief that raising taxes will kill economic recovery. There is no empirical evidence to support that belief. In fact that seems to be the current conservative stochastic methodology when discussing economic issues.

Live in the bubble. Die in the bubble.


You see, there is where you are wrong. There are more serious economic studies pointing to the conclusion that Keynes was not right then there are that he was.

BTW, do you even know what stochastic means? Your use of it indicates that you do not.

This is a typical conversation with you. I actually try to be civil, and you turn it into an ad hominem. I really wonder why I even try. :shrug:
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Re: Where is Obama’s deficit reduction budget?

Postby Wabash » Thu Dec 06, 2012 7:54 pm

AsIfYouKnew wrote:You see, there is where you are wrong. There are more serious economic studies pointing to the conclusion that Keynes was not right then there are that he was.

I bet there are also studies that show Keynes was right on the mark. Harry Truman once stated that he would like to meet a one-handed economist. Keynesian economics was used effectively by both FDR and Reagan. We have empirical evidence proving positive outcomes to their actions.

AsIfYouKnew wrote:BTW, do you even know what stochastic means? Your use of it indicates that you do not.

stochastic

sto·chas·tic adjective \stə-ˈkas-tik, stō-\

Definition of STOCHASTIC

1
: random; specifically : involving a random variable <a stochastic process>
2
: involving chance or probability : probabilistic <a stochastic model of radiation-induced mutation>

AsIfYouKnew wrote:This is a typical conversation with you. I actually try to be civil, and you turn it into an ad hominem. I really wonder why I even try. :shrug:

Funny. Just following your lead. You claim the events and conclusions I cited should not be viewed together given that you believe there is no evidence of causation. Then you make claims doing exactly the same thing. Thanks for making my argument for me.
Last edited by Wabash on Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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