Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Hanna
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Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby Hanna » Sat Jan 12, 2013 9:12 am

The epidemic of long-term unemployment, one of the most pernicious and persistent challenges bedeviling the U.S. economy, is finally showing signs of easing. The long-term unemployed—those out of work more than six months—made up 39.1% of all job seekers in December, according to the Labor Department, the first time that figure has dropped below 40% in more than three years.

The problem is far from solved. Nearly 4.8 million Americans have been out of work for more than six months, down from a peak of more than 6.5 million in 2010 but still a level without precedent since World War II.

(snip)

Total unemployment peaked in late 2009 and has dropped relatively steadily since then, while the number of long-term unemployed continued to rise into 2010 and then fell only slowly through much of 2011. More recently, however, unemployment has fallen more quickly among the long-term jobless than among the broader population. In the past year, the number of long-term unemployed workers has dropped by 830,000, accounting for nearly the entire 843,000-person drop in overall joblessness.

(snip)

The decline in long-term unemployment is good news for the broader economy. Many economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, feared that many long-term unemployed workers would become permanently unemployable, creating a "structural" unemployment problem akin to what Europe suffered in the 1980s. But those fears are beginning to recede along with the ranks of the long-term unemployed.

(snip)

"I don't think it's the case that the long-term unemployed are no longer employable," said Omair Sharif, an economist for RBS Securities Inc. "In fact, they've been the ones getting the jobs." Not all the drop in long-term joblessness can be attributed to workers finding positions. In recent years, millions of Americans have given up looking for work, at which point they no longer count as "unemployed" in official statistics.

The recent drop in long-term unemployment, however, doesn't appear to be due to such dropouts. The number of people who aren't in the labor force but say they want a job has risen by only about 400,000 in the past year, while the number of Americans with jobs has risen by 2.4 million. That suggests at least much of the improvement is due to people finding jobs, not dropping out, Mr. Sharif said.

More..

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 59994.html

(If the link does not open, copy and paste the title onto google)

Seems that many business owners, holding on hiring with the hope that higher unemployment would defeat Obama now accepted the results of the elections)
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John Q. Public
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby John Q. Public » Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:08 am

Hanna wrote:Seems that many business owners, holding on hiring with the hope that higher unemployment would defeat Obama now accepted the results of the elections

Just imagine where we'd be if Congress hadn't manufactured the last 6 months' sluggishness and, yes, "uncertainty."

You know there's a problem when business is sending letters to Congress telling them to cut the crap.

http://waysandmeans.house.gov/uploadedf ... ngress.pdf

(Gotta love Martin Richenhagen's "signature" on Page 3 - especially on a letter to Congress. Must be a busy guy.)
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Wabash
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby Wabash » Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:18 am

Hanna wrote:Seems that many business owners, holding on hiring with the hope that higher unemployment would defeat Obama now accepted the results of the elections)

Interesting that conservatives never seem to blame Obama for good economic news.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

Hanna
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby Hanna » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:17 am

Wabash wrote:Interesting that conservatives never seem to blame Obama for good economic news.


Or Clinton, for that matter, for the surplus that he left, that W decided was his to cut taxes. Even before he embarked on two wars.

I remember shortly after the 9/11 attack, some economist said that we had surplus to be able to ride the temporarily downturn in the economy.

not4u13
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby not4u13 » Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:04 am

Watched 60 minutes last night. The segment on technology talked about why this recovery is different than in the past. Many indicators are that business is back, except they are not hiring at the rates that the recovery of business suggests they should be. The reason? Technology has replaced many of the jobs. Not like before where the jobs shifted.

Interestingly the greater use of robotics cold make it cost effective to bring manufacturing back onshore. The cost per hour to operate and maintain complex robotics is dropping and is starting to approach the wages earned in China and India.

Look around you. Everywhere we go we interact less and less with humans. When was the last time you went into a bank and talked to a person? Self checkout in supermarkets, kiosks in airports, etc. They showed robots in hospitals delivery meals, mail, drugs and other things. Many of these technologies have been around for a long time but are now becoming even more capable and cost effective, meaning businesses can now grow without necessarily having to do any hiring.
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Parrotpaul
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby Parrotpaul » Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:07 am

Now if we can just get people to stop having babies, maybe we will reach an equilibrium between numbers of people needing to make money and numbers of jobs brought back to these shores only to be filled by robots....is there an alternative?
"I think I may say that of all the men we meet with, nine parts of ten are what they are, good or evil, useful or not, by their education." John Locke

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Troglodyte
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby Troglodyte » Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:09 pm

Businesses are looking for workers. The only problem is that most of the jobs available require employees with more background in technical skills. Computer savvy is a must.
Even the sales jobs require knowlege of the product you're selling. The average HS grad doesn't qualify for more than entry level jobs. Workers out of a job for a couple of years are way behind the curve.. Recent grads from one of the tech schools like DeVry have a better chance, stress recent.
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AsIfYouKnew
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby AsIfYouKnew » Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:32 pm

not4u13 wrote:Watched 60 minutes last night. The segment on technology talked about why this recovery is different than in the past. Many indicators are that business is back, except they are not hiring at the rates that the recovery of business suggests they should be. The reason? Technology has replaced many of the jobs. Not like before where the jobs shifted.

Interestingly the greater use of robotics cold make it cost effective to bring manufacturing back onshore. The cost per hour to operate and maintain complex robotics is dropping and is starting to approach the wages earned in China and India.

Look around you. Everywhere we go we interact less and less with humans. When was the last time you went into a bank and talked to a person? Self checkout in supermarkets, kiosks in airports, etc. They showed robots in hospitals delivery meals, mail, drugs and other things. Many of these technologies have been around for a long time but are now becoming even more capable and cost effective, meaning businesses can now grow without necessarily having to do any hiring.


I spoke to two people at my bank today. I do on a weekly basis. I only use the ATM when I can't get cash any other way.

The other side of robotics is that it can skyrocket productivity, but you have to be ahead of the learning curve to get those jobs. The jobs of the simple laborer are going if not gone. It is up to each and every person to educate themselves to get these jobs.
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Tommy Tar
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby Tommy Tar » Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:38 pm

AsIfYouKnew wrote:
I spoke to two people at my bank today. I do on a weekly basis. I only use the ATM when I can't get cash any other way.

The other side of robotics is that it can skyrocket productivity, but you have to be ahead of the learning curve to get those jobs. The jobs of the simple laborer are going if not gone. It is up to each and every person to educate themselves to get these jobs.


No health care, sick days, overtime pay, workers comp or parking spots for robots. :thumbsup:
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Red
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby Red » Wed Jan 16, 2013 6:44 am

I bet the dnc finds a way to turn these robots into UNIONIZED "obots".
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Wabash
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby Wabash » Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:36 am

Red wrote:I bet the dnc finds a way to turn these robots into UNIONIZED "obots".

To quote one of my 10,000 favorite movie lines:

"Who can argue with that?"
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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kramer
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Re: Long-Term Jobless Begin to Find Work

Postby kramer » Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:15 am

Hanna wrote:The epidemic of long-term unemployment, one of the most pernicious and persistent challenges bedeviling the U.S. economy, is finally showing signs of easing. The long-term unemployed—those out of work more than six months—made up 39.1% of all job seekers in December, according to the Labor Department, the first time that figure has dropped below 40% in more than three years.




The long-term unemployed are more likely giving up:

Image
(Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate Civilian labor force participation rate Percent or rate 16 years and over



Notice how the slope of the graph is not as steep as it was during the 80s. And notice that right around 2000 (when Clinton and the Republican congress gave China PNTR), the graph starts to decline.


From the NYTImes:
About 800,000 workers want a job but have simply given up looking, and so are no longer even counted as unemployed. About 1.7 million people have joined the disability rolls since the recession began at the end of 2007, an increase of 24 percent, as workers use the disability program as a backdoor safety net when their unemployment insurance runs out. After searching for a new position for a year, a worker trying to regain employment finds that his chance to do so in the coming month falls below 10 percent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/busin ... d=all&_r=0
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