Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

User avatar
kramer
Posts: 8852
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:38 pm

Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by kramer » Fri Jun 07, 2013 5:05 pm

From the Moscow west (San Francisco) US Federal Reserve:
Fed study: Tax hikes, not spending cuts, are slowing the recovery
Surprisingly, despite all the attention federal spending cuts and sequestration have received, our calculations suggest they are not the main contributors to this projected drag. The excess fiscal drag on the horizon comes almost entirely from rising taxes. Specifically, we calculate that nine-tenths of that projected 1 percentage point excess fiscal drag comes from tax revenue rising faster than normal as a share of the economy.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/2531410

Remember, the people in charge now are the same ones that say rising fossil fuels costs that lead to higher energy costs are bad for the economy while pushing for more expensive and intermittent green energy as a way to boost unemployment.
“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

- Scientist James Lovelock

User avatar
Troglodyte
Posts: 16607
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:33 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Troglodyte » Fri Jun 07, 2013 8:10 pm

Give it up, Kramer, the obots won't even touch that one..
I don't suffer from any mental illnesses.. I enjoy them..

User avatar
John Q. Public
Site Admin
Posts: 19497
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:56 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by John Q. Public » Fri Jun 07, 2013 11:35 pm

I don't know why they would. It doesn't seem to make much sense. Or have anything to do with the article or the Fed publication.

But I did like the first line of the article - "Why is the Obama recovery the weakest recovery since the Great Depression?"

Uhhh... lemmee think. :-k
Don't look at me, I just work here.

User avatar
Wabash
Posts: 24327
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 7:29 am
Has thanked: 2 times

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Wabash » Sat Jun 08, 2013 2:58 am

John Q. Public wrote: Uhhh... lemmee think. :-k
I can think of numerous reasons. GOP obstructionism being the biggest one.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

User avatar
Vilepagan
Posts: 12519
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 8:07 am

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Vilepagan » Sat Jun 08, 2013 3:59 am

Troglodyte wrote:Give it up, Kramer, the obots won't even touch that one..
There's no reason to read past the first line. It reveals the post is as meaningless as your comment.
There is no fire like passion, there is no shark like hatred, there is no snare like folly, there is no torrent like greed. - The Dhammapada

User avatar
Fordama
Posts: 18139
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 3:12 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Fordama » Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:27 am

I guess the ideas of past tense, present tense, and future tense, have confused the original author.

And yes, Kramer, I did just read the actual Federal Reserve Bank document rather than let some journalist tell me what to think.

In the near future, increased tax revenues will have more of a drag than spending cuts. The spending cuts have have had their major effect on the growth already. Now the increased tax revenues will start having more of an effect than any more spending cuts. And now--and this is very important if one considers oneself a fiscal conservative:

"The federal deficit is projected to decline faster than normal over the next three years, largely because tax revenue is projected to rise faster than usual."

The federal deficit will be declining. Going down. Reducing. Getting smaller.

That, in the long run, will be a good thing.

Fordama
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

User avatar
John Q. Public
Site Admin
Posts: 19497
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:56 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by John Q. Public » Sat Jun 08, 2013 7:22 am

You remember the deficit, don't you? It was all the (out)rage just a month or so ago.
Don't look at me, I just work here.

User avatar
Fordama
Posts: 18139
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 3:12 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Fordama » Sat Jun 08, 2013 7:28 am

John Q. Public wrote:You remember the deficit, don't you? It was all the (out)rage just a month or so ago.
I guess that was last season's faux outrage.

Fordama
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

User avatar
Wabash
Posts: 24327
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 7:29 am
Has thanked: 2 times

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Wabash » Sat Jun 08, 2013 7:49 am

John Q. Public wrote:You remember the deficit, don't you? It was all the (out)rage just a month or so ago.
I also remember the conservative predictions that Obama was going to wreck the economy during his first term.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

User avatar
Troglodyte
Posts: 16607
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:33 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Troglodyte » Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:15 am

Fordama wrote:"The federal deficit is projected to decline faster than normal over the next three years, largely because tax revenue is projected to rise faster than usual."

The federal deficit will be declining. Going down. Reducing. Getting smaller.

That, in the long run, will be a good thing.
The article leaves out one teensy little bit of reality..
Our fearless leaders will spend every dime they even think might be there.. Twice
Screw the deficit.. their new pork proposals could mean a few more votes back home.
I don't suffer from any mental illnesses.. I enjoy them..

User avatar
Troglodyte
Posts: 16607
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:33 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Troglodyte » Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:19 am

Wabash wrote: I also remember the conservative predictions that Obama was going to wreck the economy during his first term.
He already did.. The cost and effects of Obamacare are just now starting to kick in.
Even worse, if Team Obama has their way, the coverage will extend to illegal (provisional) immigrants.
I don't suffer from any mental illnesses.. I enjoy them..

User avatar
John Q. Public
Site Admin
Posts: 19497
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:56 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by John Q. Public » Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:28 am

Troglodyte wrote: The article leaves out one teensy little bit of reality..
Our fearless leaders will spend every dime they even think might be there.. Twice
Screw the deficit.. their new pork proposals could mean a few more votes back home.
But the Fed paper didn't. And it contradicts what you say, at least for the time being.

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/econo ... 13-16.html
Don't look at me, I just work here.

User avatar
Troglodyte
Posts: 16607
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:33 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Troglodyte » Sun Jun 09, 2013 9:08 am

John Q. Public wrote: But the Fed paper didn't. And it contradicts what you say, at least for the time being.

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/econo ... 13-16.html
I didn't see a contradiction in there at all, John..
When a few more tax revenue dollars flow into IRS each bureaucrat and politician will point at those same dollars and demand that "their" sequestration cuts be restored. To them this is not an increase in federal spending, but merely returning spending to "normal" levels.
There is never a thought that they could live within the sequestration cuts, or that they could audit their spending practices and eliminate inefficient programs. "Happy days are here again...Wheeee.."
I don't suffer from any mental illnesses.. I enjoy them..

User avatar
kramer
Posts: 8852
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:38 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by kramer » Sun Jun 09, 2013 2:01 pm

Fordama wrote:I guess the ideas of past tense, present tense, and future tense, have confused the original author.

And yes, Kramer, I did just read the actual Federal Reserve Bank document rather than let some journalist tell me what to think.

In the near future, increased tax revenues will have more of a drag than spending cuts. The spending cuts have have had their major effect on the growth already. Now the increased tax revenues will start having more of an effect than any more spending cuts. And now--and this is very important if one considers oneself a fiscal conservative:

"The federal deficit is projected to decline faster than normal over the next three years, largely because tax revenue is projected to rise faster than usual."

The federal deficit will be declining. Going down. Reducing. Getting smaller.

That, in the long run, will be a good thing.

Fordama
How did you miss the very last sentence? Here it is:
"Given reasonable assumptions regarding the economic multiplier on government spending and taxes, the rapid decline in the federal deficit implies a drag on real GDP growth about 1 percentage point per year larger than the normal drag from fiscal policy during recoveries."

We're trading GDP growth for deficit reduction which is basically what the article is saying.
“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

- Scientist James Lovelock

User avatar
Wabash
Posts: 24327
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 7:29 am
Has thanked: 2 times

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Wabash » Sun Jun 09, 2013 3:10 pm

kramer wrote: We're trading GDP growth for deficit reduction which is basically what the article is saying.
That's always a dilemma when an administration tries to be fiscally responsible.

Something Obama's predecessor never did.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

User avatar
Fordama
Posts: 18139
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 3:12 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Fordama » Sun Jun 09, 2013 7:24 pm

kramer wrote: We're trading GDP growth for deficit reduction which is basically what the article is saying.
Yep. It't the hard choice that the last Republican President refused to make.

Ronald Reagan failed to make that hard choice. George HW Bush and Bill Clinton did make it. W Bush did not.

Reagan and W left the nation with skyrocketing, out of control spending. GHW Bush and Clinton left us with well managed budgets. It appears that Obama is headed that direction as well. Pretty tough considering it is Obama's administration that has had to pay for the war that Bush kept off the budget.

Fordama
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

User avatar
kramer
Posts: 8852
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:38 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by kramer » Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:04 am

kramer wrote: We're trading GDP growth for deficit reduction which is basically what the article is saying.
Fordama wrote:Yep. It't the hard choice that the last Republican President refused to make.
So why did you respond earlier with this?:
"I guess the ideas of past tense, present tense, and future tense, have confused the original author."
“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

- Scientist James Lovelock

User avatar
John Q. Public
Site Admin
Posts: 19497
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 5:56 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 2 times

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by John Q. Public » Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:24 am

Fordama wrote: I guess that was last season's faux outrage.

Fordama
Maybe we need to start some kind of Outrage Tracker for our forgetful friends. It was only a month and a half ago that the deficit outrage mysteriously vanished.
Don't look at me, I just work here.

User avatar
Fordama
Posts: 18139
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 3:12 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Fordama » Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:25 am

kramer wrote:

So why did you respond earlier with this?:
"I guess the ideas of past tense, present tense, and future tense, have confused the original author."
Because he got those confused, that's why--as I explained in my original post.

Fordama
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

User avatar
Fordama
Posts: 18139
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 3:12 pm

Re: Fed study: Tax hikes are slowing the recovery

Post by Fordama » Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:40 am

John Q. Public wrote: Maybe we need to start some kind of Outrage Tracker for our forgetful friends. It was only a month and a half ago that the deficit outrage mysteriously vanished.
It's all about Obama, to the right.

If he saved a basket of kittens from drowning in a lake they'd complained that the fish didn't have enough food.

They hate him because he keeps co-opting their ideas and policies.

He favors cap and trade--the conservatives' solution for removing pollutants.

He supports killing terrorists--got Bin Laden in the progress. That chaffs their buts.

He supported the individual mandate for health care--straight from the Heritage Foundation.

He's kept Guantanamo Bay open--it's killing them that they can't complain about him moving terrorists.

He's used their beloved Patriot Act--how dare he allow the intelligence community to gather information in the fashion that they supported!

Now the deficit may be going down--he's Hitler!

Fordama
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

Post Reply