The coming boom

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Vilepagan
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The coming boom

Post by Vilepagan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:48 am

Accurate prediction or not, it's nice to read something optimistic for a change...

Paul Solman: In 2005, Charles Morris became convinced that a debt crash was inevitable. In 2006, he began his 10th book to make and explain his prediction. In 2007, he delivered the manuscript, and at the beginning of 2008, Public Affairs Books published "Two Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash," which received almost no notice at all until The Economist magazine wrote about it in March. Six months after that, the deluge.

What's remarkable is how well Morris' analysis of the crash, written before the crash, holds up half a decade after it. So when I saw that he was calling his newest book "Comeback," I felt obliged to take a look.

I'll let him take it from here.

Charles Morris: It's the best-kept secret in the economics media: The United States is on the brink of a period of solid, long-term growth rivaling that of the 1950s and 1960s. It is not a finance-driven, self-destructive boom, like the 2000s' housing bubble. No, the new economy will be durably grounded in energy and heavy manufacturing, even though it will take several years to come to full fruition.

Evidence? Dow Chemical has commenced a $4 billion development in new plastics manufacturing in Texas, for example, that will start coming on stream in 2015 and be fully operational only in 2017, but it will be productive for a very long time. This will be a growth cycle with staying power.

Why haven't you heard about the boom? Official economic forecasters, like the International Monetary Fund and the Congressional Budget Office, simply have not factored America's emerging new economy into their forecasts. Instead, they still see us limping along at an average of 2 to 2.5 percent real (after inflation) growth to the farthest horizon -- a hobbled, aging power, borne down by debts and deficits, shorn of its old bounce-back vigor, tottering along just fast enough to stave off out-and-out stagnation.

There is no question that the financial crash has left deep economic scars. But the fundamentals will turn in America's favor and when they do, annual GDP growth should kick back up to at least the 3.3 percent average real growth rate that has prevailed since 1950. That's far from a startling forecast for a recovery, but even at that level, the budget problems that have so paralyzed official Washington will shrink rapidly in the rear-view mirror as tax receipts grow, making debts and deficits shrink. The seemingly crushing post WWII debt -- 120 percent of GDP -- quickly dropped from the radar screens with growth in the 3-4 percent range in the 1950s. So what are the positive portents?


(more)

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/businessdes ... -th-1.html
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afan95
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Re: The coming boom

Post by afan95 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:51 am

hope this comes true.
But there also needs to be a paradigm shift in the workers and even young people realizing that it's OK to have a job in manufacturing or skilled labor. It's OK not to go to college. It's OK to be labeled a "blue collar worker" if it's paying the bills and supporting your family or it's really just the job you want to do.
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Re: The coming boom

Post by not4u13 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:23 am

I completely agree that our workforce needs to change its attitude. For more than a decade now the focus has been on STEM as the only way to survive in the new economy. I have never fully bought into this mantra, but it is hard to ignore. Our schools are pushing College as the only alternative starting in 4th grade. Kids are being asked to pick a career path by the 6th grade and college banners are in prominent display on the campus of most middle schools. There are special programs that focus on finding a pathway to college such as AVID and by the time a student enters their freshman year in HS, they have been asked numerous times to choose their dream school.

That's all well and good, but where is the vocational training that used to be commonplace in HS? It has been virtually eliminated. If you want to learn a trade, it has to be done outside of school. The entire focus of our educational system these days is on college prep. If you are not on the college track, you are labeled, but little is done to help prepare you to get a real job in the real world.

College is not for everyone.
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Troglodyte
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Re: The coming boom

Post by Troglodyte » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:56 am

Right after I got my degrees in physical oceanography and ocean engineering the fields collapsed.
I took a "temporary" job in concrete construction to tide me over. Three years later, when my fields started to open up again, I would have to take a 50% reduction in pay to get back into it.
Instead I got my USCG Captain's license and almost immediately made more than twice as much as the field engineers and technicians were making. I looked into entering the masters program and found the only positions open for them were a few teaching positions and even less lab engineers openings, most at less pay than I was currently making. --:--
Still, having a degree opens up many doors that won't be available to a HS grad, even if it's not in your field of study.
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kramer
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Re: The coming boom

Post by kramer » Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:58 am

Vilepagan wrote:
... the new economy will be durably grounded in energy and heavy manufacturing, even though it will take several years to come to full fruition.
I bet this energy sector he's talking about is natural gas and oil. In addition, I've been reading that companies with manufacturing in other countries are considering moving operations here because of our NG supplies and potential for cheap energy.

I hope we don't muck this up by force weaning us off of energy sources that have the added benefit of nourishing plants and trees...
“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

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Re: The coming boom

Post by Wabash » Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:11 pm

I do. The byproducts of combustion are carcinogenic. The associated health care costs to society are never factored into the equation.
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Re: The coming boom

Post by Parrotpaul » Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:38 pm

Hydrogen when burned produces water vapor.
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kramer
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Re: The coming boom

Post by kramer » Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:51 pm

Wabash wrote: I do.
Then the boom from energy will go bust.
“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

- Scientist James Lovelock

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kramer
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Re: The coming boom

Post by kramer » Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:55 pm

Parrotpaul wrote:Hydrogen when burned produces water vapor.
But we can't get hydrogen (that would give us the same amount of energy as a gallon of gas) to cost as much as a gallon of gas.

Until somebody can (or make solar panels much more efficient or come up with some other way to produce energy that isn't too expensive), fossil fuels are our cheapest (or one of our cheapest) forms of energy (at least until Obama/Dems tack on a carbon tax or cap-and-trade tax).
“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

- Scientist James Lovelock

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Wabash
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Re: The coming boom

Post by Wabash » Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:12 pm

kramer wrote:Then the boom from energy will go bust.
Only if we don't pursue other energy sources.
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Re: The coming boom

Post by Red » Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:34 pm

Think PBS! :lol:
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Re: The coming boom

Post by Frogger » Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:52 pm

The United States has the potential to be the world's leading energy producer but it will take a shift in the preset way of thinking. There are ways to make the burning of coal much cleaner and we have hundreds of years worth of coal in the ground. There is still oil in abandoned oil fields and a safe way to frack oil shales will be found. There are areas of the country where geothermal energy production is plausible and with our long ocean fronts waves and tides can be harness for an almost free form of energy production.

The government should be offering incentives for refinement of present methods and development of new methods of energy production.

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Re: The coming boom

Post by kramer » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:09 pm

Wabash wrote: Only if we don't pursue other energy sources.
Those "other energy sources" would have to be sources that are competitive with fossil fuels. Hydro power is the only one I know of that is competitive. Wind and solar (when working) will raise energy costs and probably block any boom from happening.

For the record, I would like to see solar panels become more efficient such that they give us cheap energy.
“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

- Scientist James Lovelock

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Re: The coming boom

Post by Troglodyte » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:54 pm

Frogger wrote:The United States has the potential to be the world's leading energy producer but it will take a shift in the preset way of thinking. There are ways to make the burning of coal much cleaner and we have hundreds of years worth of coal in the ground. There is still oil in abandoned oil fields and a safe way to frack oil shales will be found. There are areas of the country where geothermal energy production is plausible and with our long ocean fronts waves and tides can be harness for an almost free form of energy production.

The government should be offering incentives for refinement of present methods and development of new methods of energy production.
First of all we have to get away from the idea that we need 400 horsepower to go down to the market, or work.
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kramer
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Re: The coming boom

Post by kramer » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:41 pm

Who cares is somebody wants to drive to the market in a 400HP car? Isn't this a free country? I know what you're saying and I agree but, we live in a free country meaning anybody can get to the market by any means they want to.
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“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

- Scientist James Lovelock

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Re: The coming boom

Post by John Q. Public » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:51 pm

Red wrote:Think PBS! :lol:
Why? And it better have something to do with the topic.
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Re: The coming boom

Post by Wabash » Sat Jun 22, 2013 6:01 am

kramer wrote: Those "other energy sources" would have to be sources that are competitive with fossil fuels. Hydro power is the only one I know of that is competitive. Wind and solar (when working) will raise energy costs and probably block any boom from happening.

For the record, I would like to see solar panels become more efficient such that they give us cheap energy.
Only if you believe technological advances are static.

When the decision was made to go to the moon, the technology of a vehicle capable of lifting that heavy a payload into orbit didn't exist.

Sadly I see this as a common trait amongst conservatives. If something doesn't exist right now, they believe it will never be possible in the future.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: The coming boom

Post by Troglodyte » Sat Jun 22, 2013 8:01 am

And liberals think that all we need to do is write a law that will fix everything, whether the technology is there or not.
What is needed is support for the technology, not grandstanding with words. Kennedy challenged, Obama decrees...
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kramer
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Re: The coming boom

Post by kramer » Sun Jun 23, 2013 2:36 pm

Wabash wrote: Only if you believe technological advances are static.

When the decision was made to go to the moon, the technology of a vehicle capable of lifting that heavy a payload into orbit didn't exist.

Sadly I see this as a common trait amongst conservatives. If something doesn't exist right now, they believe it will never be possible in the future.
By the same logic, then we should be continuing to use fossil fuels because future technological advances will result in ways to starve the trees and plants (take CO2 out of the air), ways to cool the Earth, and new methods to find even more gas and oil.
“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

- Scientist James Lovelock

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