Page 1 of 11

Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:13 am
by Hanna
(snip)

A striking feature of the U.S. stock market is that it persistently does better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones. In a 2003 paper, Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov found that regardless of how they sliced the data, returns were substantially better for Democrats. Since then, with the poor returns under President George W. Bush and the strong returns under President Barack Obama, the effect has only become stronger.

Messrs. Santa-Clara and Valkanov couldn’t come up with a satisfactory explanation for the presidential puzzle. But in new research, University of Chicago Booth School of Business economists Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi think they have come up with the answer.

The two economists created a model where people have a choice between being entrepreneurs and working for the government, and of voting for a political party that favors lower taxes or higher taxes. When risk aversion is low, more people want to be entrepreneurs and to vote for the low-tax party. When risk aversion is high, the opposite is true.

It is a highly simplified version of U.S. politics and economics. But the implications for stock prices are interesting. The low-tax party gets elected when risk aversion is low, and then if risk aversion merely returns to the mean, stocks suffer. For the high-tax party, the opposite is true.

More..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-st ... 1487351985

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:10 pm
by Professor Fate
At the closing bell 2/21/'17 20,743.00
At the closing bell 11/8/'16 18,332.26

+2,410.26 gain since Trump was elected.

Thanks President Trump!

Enough said.

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:24 pm
by Omar Bongo
Can you get Trump to declare victory after one month and go home too?

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:31 am
by Professor Fate
Professor Fate wrote: At the closing bell 11/8/'16 18,332.26

At the closing bell 10/10/'17 22,830.68

Up 4,498.42 since Trump was elected.

Thanks President Trump!

Tired of winning yet?

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:19 am
by joefutbol
What do you predict it will be at by the end of his term?

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:22 pm
by Professor Fate
If I knew that I'd be rich.

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:35 pm
by Professor Fate
The Dow is up another 85.24 today. 22956.96 Yet another all-time high. Who says you can't have your 401K and spend it too?

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:03 pm
by Professor Fate
How about now?

Dow is at 23,836.71

Up 5,504.45 since Trump was elected.

Tired of winning yet?

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:07 pm
by Omar Bongo
In ten months he's broken a multitude of campaign "promises" and accomplished exactly ZILCH, so it's not surprising you're desperately casting about for anything remotely resembling an accomplishment...congratulating Wall Street and corporate fatcats like Trump and his cabinet cronies for manipulating the financial markets so they can stuff their offshore accounts with cash while everything else is going to hell...priceless

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:33 pm
by John Q. Public
Dow up 18.0% since Trump was elected.

FTSE up 16.3% since Trump was elected.

Global Dow up 23.2% since Trump was elected.

DAX up 22.4% since Trump was elected.

Nikei up 22.9% since Trump was elected.

Hang Seng up 31.9% since Trump was elected.

WOOHOO! Way to go, Don! :victorydance:

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:41 pm
by Professor Fate
Omar Bongo wrote: congratulating Wall Street and corporate fatcats like Trump and his cabinet cronies for manipulating the financial markets so they can stuff their offshore accounts with cash while everything else is going to hell...priceless
I am retired now, and have withdrawn 9% of my 401k this year, and yet my balance is higher than it was before those withdrawals. Like I said in an earlier post...Who says you can't have your 401k and spend it too? :thumbsup:

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:47 pm
by Omar Bongo
You already tried this in another thread ...short term memory issues?

Image

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:49 pm
by John Q. Public
Imagine if you'd invested in Asian or European companies, Professor.

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:01 pm
by Professor Fate
Sorry Omar, same answer. You're trying to compare 8 years of Obama to 1 year of Trump.

Secondly, your graph doesn't show all of 2017 to date. It's now almost 24,000, not 21,000 like your graph shows.

Nice Try though Omar. :roll:

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:06 pm
by John Q. Public
As are you. And you're pointing to an under-performing market as your example.

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:10 pm
by Professor Fate
And, the arrow should point to 18, 332.26 which is what it was when Trump was elected on that glorious day, November 8 2016.

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:41 pm
by John Q. Public
Or three years earlier when it first moved into record territory. Fact is, he inherited a long-term bull market that's continued either because of him or in spite of him. And considering that all of the major foreign markets except the UK's (and they've had their own little issues) have out-performed the Dow, I think I'll go with the latter.

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:28 am
by Omar Bongo
Professor Fate wrote:You're trying to compare 8 years of Obama to 1 year of Trump
And you're counting Nov. 2016 - Jan. 2017 twice...is that Trump University math?

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:41 am
by Professor Fate
I am not. 18,332.26 on Nov 8, 2016. And 23,836.71 now.

Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:43 am
by Wabash
He didn't take office till Jan. 20, 2017. His first budget didn't take effect till Oct. 1, 2017. So those gains you tout are the result of Obama era policies.