Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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John Q. Public
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by John Q. Public »

The economic numbers might get a bump for this quarter but whether or not it lasts longer is anybody's guess. And since nobody here volunteered that they got one of those $1,000 bonuses (or free Twinkies), I don't know how big that bump may be. Actual raises would make for a trend; bonuses won't. It'll be a good talking point for Republican candidates, though. It worked for Bush.

And then there's the dollar - down, I think, 14% in the last year. Good for exporters, bad for importers and consumers of imports, and bad for the cost of that new trillion dollars of debt. The lower corporate rate might bring some manufacturing back but Carrier didn't seem too excited about it, Apple didn't say anything about making iPhones here and there's still no way Mattel could continue to sell Hot Wheels for a dollar if they stamped them out in this country. That will be a drag on GDP, so it's effects might be seen in the next couple of quarters. Or more. Considering that one of the biggest drags on the dollar is policies that change from day to day or from court case to court case, that trend is likely to continue.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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The economic numbers might get a bump for this quarter but whether or not it lasts longer is anybody's guess. And since nobody here volunteered that they got one of those $1,000 bonuses (or free Twinkies), I don't know how big that bump may be. Actual raises would make for a trend; bonuses won't. It'll be a good talking point for Republican candidates, though. It worked for Bush.

And then there's the dollar - down, I think, 14% in the last year. Good for exporters, bad for importers and consumers of imports, and bad for the cost of that new trillion dollars of debt. The lower corporate rate might bring some manufacturing back but Carrier didn't seem too excited about it, Apple didn't say anything about making iPhones here and there's still no way Mattel could continue to sell Hot Wheels for a dollar if they stamped them out in this country. That will be a drag on GDP, so it's effects might be seen in the next couple of quarters. Or more. Considering that one of the biggest drags on the dollar is policies that change from day to day or from court case to court case, that trend is likely to continue.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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The economic numbers might get a bump for this quarter but whether or not it lasts longer is anybody's guess. And since nobody here volunteered that they got one of those $1,000 bonuses (or free Twinkies), I don't know how big that bump may be. Actual raises would make for a trend; bonuses won't. It'll be a good talking point for Republican candidates, though. It worked for Bush.

And then there's the dollar - down, I think, 14% in the last year. Good for exporters, bad for importers and consumers of imports, and bad for the cost of that new trillion dollars of debt. The lower corporate rate might bring some manufacturing back but Carrier didn't seem too excited about it, Apple didn't say anything about making iPhones here and there's still no way Mattel could continue to sell Hot Wheels for a dollar if they stamped them out in this country. That will be a drag on GDP, so it's effects might be seen in the next couple of quarters. Or more. Considering that one of the biggest drags on the dollar is policies that change from day to day or from court case to court case, that trend is likely to continue.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by John Q. Public »

The economic numbers might get a bump for this quarter but whether or not it lasts longer is anybody's guess. And since nobody here volunteered that they got one of those $1,000 bonuses (or free Twinkies), I don't know how big that bump may be. Actual raises would make for a trend; bonuses won't. It'll be a good talking point for Republican candidates, though. It worked for Bush.

And then there's the dollar - down, I think, 14% in the last year. Good for exporters, bad for importers and consumers of imports, and bad for the cost of that new trillion dollars of debt. The lower corporate rate might bring some manufacturing back but Carrier didn't seem too excited about it, Apple didn't say anything about making iPhones here and there's still no way Mattel could continue to sell Hot Wheels for a dollar if they stamped them out in this country. That will be a drag on GDP, so it's effects might be seen in the next couple of quarters. Or more. Considering that one of the biggest drags on the dollar is policies that change from day to day or from court case to court case, that trend is likely to continue.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by Bick »

John Q. Public wrote: I think this graphic says something about that but I'm not sure what, exactly.
It means Trump is a GENIUS and Obama is a dunce! At least that's some would have us think.

Wouldn't it be great if we could just talk about specific decisions and their impact(s) without first qualifying them along party lines?
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by Wabash »

not4u13 wrote: The tax cut this administration passed (which is the single biggest thing it has done) will certainly help economic growth even if it does horrible things to the national debt.
Clinton raised taxes. By the time he left office unemployment had been reduced and the Dow Jones was 250% higher than when he started. Every GOP representative voted against it and then many claimed Clinton had benefitted from the Reagan economy.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by Bick »

John Q. Public wrote: The economic numbers might get a bump for this quarter but whether or not it lasts longer is anybody's guess. And since nobody here volunteered that they got one of those $1,000 bonuses (or free Twinkies), I don't know how big that bump may be. Actual raises would make for a trend; bonuses won't. It'll be a good talking point for Republican candidates, though. It worked for Bush.
Agreed. One-off bonuses, or "economic stimulus" deals aren't things you can count on, so no likely incremental capital investment / long-term employment will likely result.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by Bick »

not4u13 wrote:I think it's hard to argue that our economy is better now that it was 10 years ago when we were in a recession. History is the best judge of the impact that leadership decisions have on the economy. One thing most people agree on though, the condition of the economy has little or nothing to do with the actions taken during the first year a President is in office. The tax cut this administration passed (which is the single biggest thing it has done) will certainly help economic growth even if it does horrible things to the national debt.
The biggest problem I have with all those claiming "victory" over their decisions, is they rarely, if ever, take into account their overall impact on the country.

Tax cuts without real analysis of the expected impact on the budget and debt is reckless. Spending cuts without real analysis of the impact on those items being cut is short-sighted. I believe it's incumbent upon us to reject the political rhetoric, and become as objective as possible when it comes to governing ourselves.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by broman »

Bick wrote:
Tax cuts without real analysis of the expected impact on the budget and debt is reckless
The core argument of the Trump administration is that the tax cut, deregulation, renegotiation of trade deals will significantly improve growth.

"So we're at 3.3 percent GDP. I see no reason why we don't go to 4 percent, 5 percent, and even 6 percent." President Trump
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/trump-d ... ecast.html
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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John Q. Public wrote: And since nobody here volunteered that they got one of those $1,000 bonuses
Three of my four kids did...all from different companies. The forth probably won't. He works for a public University.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by Bick »

broman wrote:The core argument of the Trump administration is that the tax cut, deregulation, renegotiation of trade deals will significantly improve growth.

"So we're at 3.3 percent GDP. I see no reason why we don't go to 4 percent, 5 percent, and even 6 percent." President Trump
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/trump-d ... ecast.html
If the rate cuts, deregulation, trade deals do spur economic growth (as supply side economists would argue), then this direction would be positive, right? Tax cuts, but higher tax revenue because of growth. Just need a time horizon from which to judge.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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Bick wrote: higher tax revenue because of growth. Just need a time horizon from which to judge.
:yeahthat: On the money as usual Bick.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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Tax cuts by themselves will be a disaster. History shows that. As long as Trump and the GOP overlook the annual trillion dollar deficits the economy will be just fine.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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It's amazing that people are still spouting trickle down economics after decades of its failure.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by Fordama »

Omar Bongo wrote:CES0000000001_2667432_1517722361912.gif

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputSe ... E_cesbref1
Bick can't read graphs.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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Fordama wrote: It's amazing that people are still spouting trickle down economics after decades of its failure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWdd6_ZxX8c
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by Fordama »

Except that it's not an opinion.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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Again, that's just your opinion also. Obviously, many people don't agree with you, or they wouldn't keep saying it.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

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Facts show that trickle down fails for one reason. It puts aggregate demand into too few individuals.

Reagan and Bush made it work by massive infusions of capital in the marketplace.

Tax cuts by themselves, it falls.
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Re: Wages Rise and 200,000 Jobs Added

Post by Bick »

Wabash wrote: Tax cuts by themselves will be a disaster. History shows that. As long as Trump and the GOP overlook the annual trillion dollar deficits the economy will be just fine.
You mean like this? As Ford pointed out, I don't know how to read graphs. Can you explain it?

Image
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