‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Bick
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Bick » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:13 am

Market historically retreats about 50% of the run-up. I've been in short term treasuries / CD's for about a year now.

Start doing your homework to go long at around 22,000. Lot's of high quality companies will be on sale.

Or you can wring your hands and say the market is down 50% because of Trump tariffs.

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Wabash
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Wabash » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:51 am

I can also keep my portfolio in Fixed Income and hard assets like real estate.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Bick » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:36 pm

Equities have outperformed the fixed and RE investments by nearly 2 to 1 over the long haul, and a proper balance of fixed, real and equities based on your investment horizon generally gives you the best overall return. But given my lack of success at making any point in this forum, I wouldn't know where to begin to try to convince you of this.

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Wabash
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Wabash » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:39 pm

My portfolio works just fine. My RE holdings all have positive cash flows. Couple that with my holding the title on my primary domicile. I have everything else in Fixed Income because I'm too lazy to constantly review and re-balance the portfolio.

If I were much younger I would be looking at your suggestions very seriously. But I'm old and cranky.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by MDDad » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:06 pm

...a proper balance of fixed, real and equities based on your investment horizon generally gives you the best overall return.
Those five words can't be emphasized enough. When I was advising families on their finances, I never stopped being amazed at how many people in their 50's and 60's still wanted to stay in equities looking for the big score, or refinance their homes into new 30-year loans. It was age-denial at its worst.
But given my lack of success at making any point in this forum, I wouldn't know where to begin to try to convince you of this.
It's not that you don't make your points, you do. But on this forum, all points, regardless of how valid, are dismissed out of hand by the other side.

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Wabash
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Wabash » Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:32 pm

MDDad wrote:QR_BBPOST I never stopped being amazed at how many people in their 50's and 60's still wanted to stay in equities
Got out of equities long ago. Since I only re-fi'd my RE holdings to acquire more RE it worked out pretty well.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Wabash
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Wabash » Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:44 pm

Bick wrote:QR_BBPOST Or you can wring your hands and say the market is down 50% because of Trump tariffs.
I think tariffs are only part of why the market is down.

The real problem is Trump and the tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. They are now almost exactly a year old.
They were frittered away as corporations used their tax savings to buy back their own shares of stock, and the wealthy used theirs to gamble in the stock market. These steroids wore off as soon as the spending stopped. The rest of us are left holding the bag of a giant deficit.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Omar Bongo » Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:46 pm

MDDad wrote:But on this forum, all points, regardless of how valid, are dismissed out of hand by the other side.
I'm surprised and a little sad to learn you think that way...
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by MDDad » Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:20 pm

I think that's partly because you're part of the vocal majority here.

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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by John Q. Public » Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:58 pm

Speaking of "I'm a tariff man," I see Don's authorizing a second round of bailouts... er, I mean "Market Facilitation Payments" for farmers. Catering to that 30% who'd still vote for him, blowing off the rest.
Don't look at me, I just work here.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Omar Bongo » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:29 pm

MDDad wrote:I think that's partly because you're part of the vocal majority here.
Okay...
MDDad wrote:But on this forum, all points, regardless of how valid, are dismissed out of hand by the other side.
So conversely, would you agree that you feel this way because you're part of the "minority" here?

I don't think there are "sides", per se, here. And I don't think all points are dismissed out of hand, which is basically saying that zero thought goes into the decision...and isn't the "validity" of a point a personal judgement, rather than an absolute?
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

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Omar Bongo
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Omar Bongo » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:31 pm

Sorry if that's off-topic...just wanted to finish my point
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

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Wabash
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Wabash » Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:49 am

John Q. Public wrote:QR_BBPOST I mean "Market Facilitation Payments" for farmers. Catering to that 30% who'd still vote for him, blowing off the rest.
Whoa!! Isn't that socialism?
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Bick » Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:37 pm

Wabash wrote:QR_BBPOST I think tariffs are only part of why the market is down.

The real problem is Trump and the tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. They are now almost exactly a year old.
They were frittered away as corporations used their tax savings to buy back their own shares of stock, and the wealthy used theirs to gamble in the stock market. These steroids wore off as soon as the spending stopped. The rest of us are left holding the bag of a giant deficit.
Always good for a laugh to listen to media based financial pundits try to explain what just caused the market to go up or down, especially when they say it with such conviction. Downright comical to read a lay person do it.

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Wabash
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Wabash » Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:54 pm

Even better when someone claiming expertise doesn't see it for the reality that it is.

Trickle down econ only works if those benefiting the most are forced to spend their newly found gains on consumption. Which is the opposite of what happens. Trickle down econ via tax cuts puts aggregate demand into an ever shrinking group. That rabid "commie" Eisenhower explained it best.
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They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Bick » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:45 pm

Wabash wrote:QR_BBPOST Even better when someone claiming expertise doesn't see it for the reality that it is.
Yeah, what you wrote about why the market moved is scientific reality - it was on MSNBC, right? I must be a stock market denier.

And the reason you've chosen not to benefit from your stock market wisdom, and instead put yourself in fixed income securities with no chance of keeping up with inflation is?

My only expertise is that I pay attention to history, and know that no one could possibly know what causes short term market moves.

I can see why Eisenhower's rationale for spending your earnings so the gov't doesn't confiscate it, and spend it for you, is appealing to you. Seems it's the backbone of most liberal thinking. How about if you sell of some of your real estate holdings and CD's, and send the proceeds to Ghana to help fight global warming, I mean climate change? Why should you be able to horde all those assets, and not put it to use serving the greater good in the world?

This is a better guy to quote regarding the market...
Warren Buffett said there’s simply no reliable way of predicting whether stock prices will go up or down over the next week or year, but stocks with high returns on capital will always eventually outperform bonds returning just 3 percent annually.

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Wabash
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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Wabash » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:41 am

Bick wrote:QR_BBPOST And the reason you've chosen not to benefit from your stock market wisdom, and instead put yourself in fixed income securities with no chance of keeping up with inflation is?
Because my primary investment vehicle has been real estate. I've been in the 1% bracket for some time as a result.

Less than 5% of my total portfolio is in my fixed income account.

I do appreciate your advice. I really do.
Bick wrote:QR_BBPOST I can see why Eisenhower's rationale for spending your earnings so the gov't doesn't confiscate it, and spend it for you, is appealing to you. Seems it's the backbone of most liberal thinking.
I keep forgetting. That was an era when conservatives believed in fiscal responsibility. Now they don't.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Bick » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:39 am

Wabash wrote:QR_BBPOST Because my primary investment vehicle has been real estate.
Which of course provides you with expertise regarding why the stock market moves.
Wabash wrote:QR_BBPOST I keep forgetting. That was an era when conservatives believed in fiscal responsibility. Now they don't.
Now if you'll substitute republican for conservatives, I'll agree with this. Ike wanted a balanced budget, and I agree with this. I think tax cuts without cuts in spending is a really bad idea. On the flip side, spending increases without voted on tax increases is just as bad, if not worse.

Here's Ike's position on taxation in context.
And now, our last subject: taxes. In spite of some things that I have seen in the papers over the past 8 or 9 months, I personally have never promised a reduction in taxes. Never.

What I have said is, reduction of taxes is a very necessary objective of government--that if our form of economy is to endure, we must not forget private incentives and initiative and the production that comes from it. Therefore, the objective of tax reduction is an absolutely essential one, and must be attained in its proper order.

But I believe, and I think this can be demonstrated as fact by economists, both on the basis of history and on their theoretical and abstract reasoning, that until the deficit is eliminated from our budget, there is no hope of keeping our money stable. It is bound to continue to be cheapened, and if it is cheapened, then the necessary expenses of government each year cost more because the money is worth less. Therefore, there is no end to the inflation; there is finally no end to taxation; and the eventual result would, of course, be catastrophe.

So, whether we are ready to face the job this minute or any other time, the fact is there must be balanced budgets before we are again on a safe and sound system in our economy. That means, to my mind, that we cannot afford to reduce taxes, reduce income, until we have in sight a program of expenditures that shows that the factors of income and of outgo will be balanced. Now that is just to my mind sheer necessity.

I have as much reason as anyone else to deplore high taxes. I certainly am going to work with every bit of energy I have towards their reduction. And I applaud the efforts of the people in Congress that are going in that way. But I merely want to point out that unless we go at it in the proper sequence, I do not believe that taxes will be lowered.

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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Wabash » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:58 am

The largest increases to the debt (by percent) in the last 40 years have occurred during GOP administrations.

I'm not alone on my opinion of why the market is tanking. You can believe Trump's fiscal policy isn't a reason. I don't share that belief.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: ‘I Am a Tariff Man’ - WSJ Editorial

Post by Bick » Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:08 pm

Agreed. Growing the gov't isn't exclusive to democrats.

You and the rest of your opinion holders must've made a killing being short on stocks during this downslide. Any stocks in particular, or just the indexes? When do you think it's time to cover those positions?


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