Page 2 of 3

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:56 am
by Vilepagan
Bick wrote: Please don't tell me you believe this crap like Wabash does.
Bick, if you wish to make an argument make one, but merely calling a cited article "crap" isn't making an argument.

To answer your rude question, I cited the article to show the volatility of the market, and the fall in consumer confidence in December, both facts which seem not to be in dispute, so yeah, I believe this "crap".

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:22 am
by Bick
Apologies. Decades of listening to financial pundits each and every day cite some "market sentiment" as the reason for movement in the stock market on any given day has led me to conclude it's complete BS. Real money managers concur with me, and vice versa.

Hate to see people buy into it.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:33 am
by Wabash
If Trump were concerned about the market he should have picked someone other than Powell.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:37 pm
by Credo ut intelligam
MAGAnomics rolls on. I'm sure the hyenas will soon rush in to tell us how this is actually a sign of Trump's idiocy and his coming implosion. :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:
Stocks surge after blowout jobs report, Powell’s comments
Stocks surged following a report that the U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in December and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting the central bank would be flexible about future monetary policy moves.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 3.43%, or 84.05 points, as of market close, led by advances in technology stocks. Gains in tech shares also contributed to steep advances for the Nasdaq (^IXIC), which climbed 4.26%, or 275.35 points. The industrials-heavy Dow (^DJI) climbed 3.28%, or 746.81 points, on signals of potential progress toward a trade deal between the U.S. and China.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that the U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December, far exceeding expectations of 184,000. Average hourly earnings also rose, increasing 0.4% over last month and 3.2% over last year. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% in December from 3.7% in November, which was due to an increase in labor force participation.

Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com senior economic analyst, said the U.S. labor market was in a “hiring heat wave” in December.

“There’s a lot to choose from regarding positive developments amid all of the uncertainty, volatility and worries elsewhere in the economy and the broader environment,” he said of the report.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-r ... 41900.html

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:52 pm
by Wabash
Dems were getting blamed after the market declined starting in November. Yet they are not getting blamed for the last two days.

As Omar pointed out on another thread. Four more days like today and we will be back to where we were three months ago.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:34 pm
by Credo ut intelligam
As others have pointed out, the daily Stock Market fluctuations don't give us the best sense of economic health. The jobs report is the big news.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:38 pm
by Wabash
Which I could say is the result of Dems winning big in November.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:24 pm
by Omar Bongo
Credo ut intelligam wrote: the daily Stock Market fluctuations don't give us the best sense of economic health
...but fluctuating monthly jobs reports do?

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:48 am
by Vilepagan
Credo ut intelligam wrote: "There’s a lot to choose from regarding positive developments amid all of the uncertainty, volatility and worries elsewhere in the economy and the broader environment,” he said of the report.
Well put.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:34 am
by MDDad
Wabash wrote:Which I could say is the result of Dems winning big in November.
Yes, Wabash, that really makes sense. The same party that loves to pile more business regulations on top of more business regulations just won control of the House, and that's why employers hired 312,000 people in December.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:49 am
by Wabash
I would agree. That is why they were hired.

Those unemployment numbers are about to take a hit considering the 800,000 federal employees that are not being paid during this bogus shutdown.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:16 am
by John Q. Public
...If it goes longer than 20 working days.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:57 pm
by Red
Holy smoke, my statement came in yesterday! I wondered if it factored in the 750 points this past Friday?

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:46 pm
by Omar Bongo
Any thoughts about the 5000 point loss from October to December?

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 7:16 am
by Vilepagan
You have to love all the "certainty" Mr. trump has brought to our economy...what a genius...

Dow drops nearly 600 points after China retaliates with tariff hikes

China will hike tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. imports, starting on June 1. The goods targeted include a broad range of agricultural products. This comes after President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports last week. China said in a statement that the U.S.′ decision jeopardized the interests of both countries and does not meet the “general expectations of the international community,” according to a Google translation.

Trade bellwether Caterpillar fell more than 3% while Apple dropped 4.9%. Boeing shares also declined more than 5.2% amid speculation the airplane maker could be singled out by China in the trade war.

Asian markets fell broadly. The Nikkei 225 index declined 0.7% Monday while the Shanghai Composite pulled back 1.2%. European stocks also dropped. The Stoxx 600 index fell 1.1% while the German Dax dipped 1.3%.

“Volatility is going to persist. People don’t know what to make of it,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. But “this is more of a re-evaluation of stocks than it is a pure panic. Bonds have rallied over the last couple of weeks, but if this was a panic you’d see people coming a lot more for bonds.”


http://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/13/us-marke ... -more.html

What a bunch of hypocrites are those who decried the "uncertainty" during Obama's presidency and yet remain silent or worse, supportive, of this president.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 8:28 am
by Wabash
Trump has stated that trade wars are easy to win.

Couple that with his renewed demand for more bailouts for those affected by his idiotic trade war.

And.....the massive increase in the federal deficit.

We now know that the so called party of fiscal responsibility is a talking point and not much else.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 10:14 am
by John Q. Public
Wondering if the markets might be reacting to these two tweets on Donald-O-Nomics from yesterday. I want to think that somebody down there knows what they're doing but these are so freaking clueless I can't help but doubt it. They sound like an exam answer by some freshman college student who came to class (drunk) for the first time in a month only to find that they were having a mid-term.


Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2019 1:20 pm
by Al Koholik
I see no mention of the most accurate indicator of a looming recession that has been flashing RED (the color, not my good friend the poster from the opposite side of the ideological chasm) The treasury yield curve which has been inverted (first time this decade) for the last few months. It just, in the last few days, uninverted (by less than one basis point) for the first time since May as a result of the Fed announcing a rate cut at end of July (gee... I wonder why they’re panicking). There has been no more accurate indicator of a looming recession than this curve over the last 40 some years.
Of course when I enlighten my friends on the right to the FACTS of such, as they’re toasting their market windfalls and tax breaks...They retort, “just like a liberal... rooting for a recession”. To the contrary, who the F roots for a recession? I don’t keep my head in the sand when it comes to the future of my company and career no matter who is in office. Let alone worship at the altar of a serial stiffer, defaulter and BK filer who also has very little vested interest in the market. I update my resume and prepare for the inevitability, regardless of leadership, of economic downturn.
Yes, inevitable. Is the right so high on the Trump drug they think we will somehow avoid what history and economic math proves unavoidable within our economic model of free enterprise (please don’t argue excessive regulation, it’s baked into the equation either way)? As sure as the sun rises and sets, so too does EVERY economy.
Outside of that, I find it quite interesting that Trump and his sycophants love to tout the stock market when the FACT is that almost half of Americans have NO vested interest in the market.
Further... here’s a nice little factoid for the fallacious (and fellatious) Trumpists.
We just reached a record milestone for consecutive months of GDP growth, something like 120 or thereabouts and about 110 of job growth. Can anyone tell me how many months Trump has been in office??? 30ish? Hmmmmm... riddle me that oh ye of the TRAGICALLY CONNED CLOWN TROOP (say that 3 times real fast). I know Trump is otherworldly, just ask him, but how did he pull that one off? Growing the economy years before he took office? Truly amazing.
Oh yeah... how’s that debt doing that Trump claimed he could erase in less than one term (via default of course)? Skyrocketing!!! Must be Obama’s fault, like all that economic growth.
Now the question is, will my queries be met with coherent, fact-laden rebuttal and lucid discourse, or the usual Trump/FoxFakeNews broad-stroke diversionary talking points?

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Sun Jul 21, 2019 1:26 pm
by Wabash
I have my bet on the diversionary talking points.

Re: Uncertainty anyone?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:22 am
by John Q. Public
Whoopsies! I saw that the Dow went straight down 150 points so I sez, "OK, wha'd he do?" Well, he announced that the negotiations with China aren't going well and he's slapping another 10% onto the tariffs.

So, my prediction: This is part of his election strategy. Sometime between now and next summer, he'll announce that "significant progress is being made" and he'll reduce or drop the tariffs - maybe just this new ten percent now - and the market will go straight up. Bigly. But the Fed will have cut at least another quarter of a point by then and we'll be sitting on a wildly artificially inflated stock market that has nowhere to go but down if whoever's in charge then tries to normalize it. This is gonna be ugly.