Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

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Lionhunter
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Lionhunter »

dont be that guy wrote:
Sorry, I assumed that they weren't going to try and run De La Salle's offense again this year.
Well, you may be right, for all I know. I was just wondering if I missed something.
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junior
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by junior »

[. They picked a horrible year to schedule DLS. Servite is starting over with a new staff and offense and DLS has crazy talent, a soft schedule (so Servite will be highlighted on the schedule), and they will be firing on all cylinders by game 6. With the best talent in Servite history, they lost by 40.[/quote]

Why do you name the 2013 DLS schedule as "soft"?

9 of the 10 teams DLS plays made the playoffs in 2012. They eliminated the 3 worst teams from their 2012 schedule. Granted, most Spartan fans were hoping for a nationally ranked OOS opponent. This is a good schedule, hardly "soft".

I am not the biggest fan of Cal preps but here is the SOS based on 2012 ratings from Cal preps:
DLS- 41.8
SM- 48.2
MD- 45.9
SJB- 46.8
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by BuckW »

Actually Lionhunter SM returns 3 starters from last seasons O-line (Will Sorenson 6'5", 325; Austin Maihan 6'4", 275 and Ryan Kilander 6'2", 275.
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Lionhunter »

BuckW wrote:Actually Lionhunter SM returns 3 starters from last seasons O-line (Will Sorenson 6'5", 325; Austin Maihan 6'4", 275 and Ryan Kilander 6'2", 275.
Riley Sorenson was the starter...He's gone. Will wasn't a starter last year, was he? Kilander started at DT, and saw a lot of action on the O-Line, but I don't think he started there. I'm guessing Maihen did start replacing Bunte.
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by BuckW »

Kilander started at guard on O-line. Will started several games last season. Mailhan didn't replace Bunte he beat him out and sent him to Mission with his tail between his legs. SM's line will be the strength of the team.

As far as Sweet moving to WR out need is far from the truth. WR is actually one of SM's deepest positions even more so now with the transfer from Lakewood. I was excited about Sweet with his speed and arm getting the ball on every snap but the Soph QB has a chance to be outstanding. We will see how it works out.
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Lionhunter »

BuckW wrote:
As far as Sweet moving to WR out need is far from the truth. WR is actually one of SM's deepest positions even more so now with the transfer from Lakewood. I was excited about Sweet with his speed and arm getting the ball on every snap but the Soph QB has a chance to be outstanding. We will see how it works out.
Are you sure about McNichols? I heard MD might challenge it. And are you including La Bonte with his whopping 4 catches last year?
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Luca »

BoscoBandWagon wrote:Luca (and others),

bosco has had a total of two transfers of lower level players into Bosco this year. I don't know if anybody will show up between now and Aug. but doubt bosco will not be starting any transfer from another school.

as a matter of fact they have denied 2 Div 1 high profile kids that wanted to transfer into the school. (that I know of)
Toa Lobendaun who is a USC commit. His dad came out and told the papers that his son was transferring to Bosco since he was fired as the HC at Lakewood. But Bosco denied him because the kid has taken extra classes to graduate early but bosco does not let kids graduate early. Surely cheating Bosco can change their policy for a Div 1 USC commit can't they??? NOPE
and the sm transfer from Lakewood also wanted to come into to join his buddies. I am not going to bash the kid but lets just say I didn't know SM's tuition is that cheap (free) and it's academic requirements are that low???? Good for them ...............

oh and luca thanks for the annual don't jserra post.
after 7 years of making the same post (just changing the names of their players) it looks like you closer the ever from guessing right. finally jserra "kinda" has a shot at the playoffs.
For what it's worth, I likewise "doubt Bosco will not be starting any transfer from another school." The question is: how many?

I have no idea how many football transfers Bosco has acquired or lost in the last three years, lower level or otherwise. I don't think anybody on this board has kept up with the traffic and hence I have no way of knowing what players they have at what positions for the coming season. Since the topic of this thread deals with the anticipated performance of teams for next year and I'm unfamiliar with Bosco's current roster that's why I said what I did.

If for some reason you find this offensive - as you do with so many comments regarding the school - then you might be better served by posting elsewhere where a consideration for hypersensitive feelings trumps actual observations. You are free to interpret every post with a zero-sum analysis if you choose, but don't delude yourself into thinking that I share your high school bandwagoner us-versus-them approach to HSFB. I haven't played in a long time and it's no more than a hobby for me.

If you would trouble yourself to actually research comments before commenting on them, you would know that I have never predicted success in league play for JSerra over the last five previous seasons. I have predicted outcomes of zero or one league wins. I don't recall ever before predicting that they would win even two games in league. And zero to one is exactly what they have done for the last five years. If you consider that a "don't overlook" warning, you're too emotional....... Luca
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Luca »

Lionhunter wrote: Riley Sorenson was the starter...He's gone. Will wasn't a starter last year, was he? Kilander started at DT, and saw a lot of action on the O-Line, but I don't think he started there. I'm guessing Maihen did start replacing Bunte.

Buck is correct. Kilander was a starter all year long at OG and played only occasional DT. Soph Will Sorenson started a few games – I can't remember how many – when someone got injured. I do remember him playing alongside his brother for the Trabuco game. That was interesting to watch . When I first saw him I thought he was just a big body endomorph. But he actually moves reasonably well for his size and has acceptable - not impressive - mobility. He won't be helping out much downfield but he can open holes.

Soph Maihen was a legitimate sophomore starter and is the reason why the returning, projected starter transferred out in the first place. Of the entire group he has the most potential and has an extraordinary frame. The last time I saw the kid he was maybe 6'5" and probably 270 + and looked fairly thin.

Of the two new o-line starters I briefly watched one a few months ago - Schwenke is his name - and he's another big frame and about 6'4" or 6'5" and 260 pounds plus. Pretty athletic and had surprisingly good feet, I thought. I could be wrong. I don't know much about the other new starter.

Kerry was never a starter, by the way.

I know next to nothing about the projected sophomore QB other than he's tall - 6'3" or better - and less about his mobility or arm strength. Switching Kyle Sweet to wide receiver would give them a real breakaway threat, but he would be more difficult to defend at QB.

The above notwithstanding............We're still looking at Mater Dei and Bosco as the favorites........Luca
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Lionhunter »

Luca wrote: Buck is correct. Kilander was a starter all year long at OG and played only occasional DT. Soph Will Sorenson started a few games – I can't remember how many – when someone got injured. I do remember him playing alongside his brother for the Trabuco game. That was interesting to watch . When I first saw him I thought he was just a big body endomorph. But he actually moves reasonably well for his size and has acceptable - not impressive - mobility. He won't be helping out much downfield but he can open holes...Luca
Thanks Luca. My sources were limited to the OCVarsity preview, and the AimSportsTV highlights of the SM/Servite game. I guess Santa Margarita has a little more returning than I thought. It's going to be interesting, this year for sure...LH
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Luca »

Lionhunter wrote: Some good points about the Friar coaching staff, and their schedule. I am puzzled by your points concerning Servite vs. SM and Servite vs. J Serra however.

I think it's safe to say that you want to see Servite lose those two games, and I want to see them win both games. With that in mind, do you not think that predicting a SM victory (in part because they beat the Friars by three TDs) while not predicting a Servite victory over J Serra (who lost to Servite by four TDs) is a bit incongruous? Perhaps I'm guilty of the same thing in reverse, because I think Servite wins both.

My thoughts are that both J Serra and Servite return a ton of starters, both had excellent JV teams (JS as Champs by virtue of a 21-20 win over Servite who finished 9-1), so both should be better this season. So the strength of the two, relative to each other, may be unchanged, leaving the 28-0 game last year as the main factor in my prediction.

As to the game with SM, my thoughts are that Servite will be much improved, and, the Eagles will have a drop off this season. They lost that entire monster O-Line, RB Wolpin, and are moving Sweet back to WR because not only can the new QB handle the job, but also because, I believe they really need Sweet at WR.

Also they've lost their entire DB corp including O'Brien, two of three LBs and two of the four DL.

As to the 21-0 game last year, that game was 7-0 until the closing moments of the 3rd quarter until the huge SM O-Line finally wore down the smaller Friars. Again, that O-Line is gone.
Really? I didn't know JSerra's sophomore team had done that well.

The primary reason that I don't see Servite beating Santa Margarita this season is because it's very unusual for a new coach to come in when there is turmoil and produce a winner immediately. I understand that Servite's performance last year was atypical, but I don't buy that it can be laid at the feet of a traditionally successful head coach who for some reason suddenly underperformed.

There were some talented players that I saw for Servite, but they didn't have the necessary size or speed or even very much intensity from the two games I watched. These can all be improved, obviously, but I doubt it can be done in one season with a novice head coach. Coach Welch turned Santa Margarita around quickly, but I think we would agree based on his record that he is an unusually talented head coach........... plus he inherited a roster that few people realized was loaded.

Servite caught Santa Margarita at its nadir last year with an unqualified and inexperienced wide receiver at quarterback. I think by that time that Wolpin the RB was also playing injured. There was no offensive punch or synchrony. And although you probably remember the game better than I do, I never felt the outcome was in doubt. It was an ugly game.

I just don't believe Servite can turn around that quickly.

As regards JSerra, last year's game is an indicator. But I think, again, that Servite will be overmatched as far as coaching with Coach Hartigan vis a` vis Coach Gass. I think too many people overlook the importance of the head coach on outcome. They tend to look at programs, which really are just a reflection of the head coach. No one here is going to believe it, but JSerra at the key offensive skill positions has about as much talent as anyone else in the league. Last year two of their most relied upon linemen missed all or most of the season but will be back along with the returners.

I suspect that part of the reason nobody's ever been impressed with their line play is because they have never been able to two platoon. Some of their worst losses occurred when they simply ran out of gas. But they have enough numbers to two platoon with acceptable size this year. And they have experience. I think they can win one or two league games with an outside chance at a third. The Servite game will be pivotal for them........................Luca
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Lionhunter »

Luca wrote:
As regards JSerra...The Servite game will be pivotal for them........................Luca
And, of course, Servite has to beat J Serra, SM, and O Lutheran in order to make the playoffs as a 3rd place team, because if they lose even one of those games, they'll likely finish 4th. And with their schedule, it's unlikely that their overall record would be good enough for a wild card spot...LH
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Mr. Grady
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Mr. Grady »

I'd put SM's over under at 3.5 wins with a small but real chance for a 5-5, 2-3 at large entry.

This will be Harry's last year at SM. He will go 3-7 or 4-6, resign and resurface at a private program that is trending upward. He'll resurface in 2014 (as a head coach of course) if only because he needs to remain relevant - his raison d'etre. So for those privates amongst you ... if you can afford him...
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Luca »

I dunno, Mr. G. I'm looking at that schedule and I don't see how you envision a 3-7 season. This is the schedule:

Bishop Amat
Bishop Gorman
Dorsey
Carson
Trabuco Hills
St. John Bosco
Servite
Mater Dei
Orange Lutheran
JSerra Catholic

I have to think that Dorsey, Carson, and Trabuco Hills are the three gimmees that you predict (given SM's record against them in recent years). Certainly they are underdogs for now versus Mater Dei and Bosco and I presume Bishop Gorman (though many here seem to think Gorman is overrated next year - I have no idea). This means that you anticipate losses to Bishop Amat, Servite, Orange Lutheran, and JSerra.

Bishop Amat is a solid program but over the last three years they have not been comparable to Santa Margarita.
Servite is coming off a 3-7 record, bringing in a novice head coach and is going to stumble into league play with a losing record and very possibly dispirited.
Orange Lutheran has had an exodus of talent and has struggled for the last two years.
JSerra has managed one victory in five tries and was manhandled last year.

And this you predict despite a head coach who has gone 31-8 in his first three years at the program (at least two of which losses would not have occurred without the injuries last year) and 108-14 in his last nine years. You must see something that I don't....... something disguised........ something damn well disguised .......... .Luca
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by templar83 »

Luca wrote:I dunno, Mr. G. I'm looking at that schedule and I don't see how you envision a 3-7 season. This is the schedule:

Bishop Amat
Bishop Gorman
Dorsey
Carson
Trabuco Hills
St. John Bosco
Servite
Mater Dei
Orange Lutheran
JSerra Catholic

I have to think that Dorsey, Carson, and Trabuco Hills are the three gimmees that you predict (given SM's record against them in recent years). Certainly they are underdogs for now versus Mater Dei and Bosco and I presume Bishop Gorman (though many here seem to think Gorman is overrated next year - I have no idea). This means that you anticipate losses to Bishop Amat, Servite, Orange Lutheran, and JSerra.

Bishop Amat is a solid program but over the last three years they have not been comparable to Santa Margarita.
Servite is coming off a 3-7 record, bringing in a novice head coach and is going to stumble into league play with a losing record and very possibly dispirited.
Orange Lutheran has had an exodus of talent and has struggled for the last two years.
JSerra has managed one victory in five tries and was manhandled last year.

And this you predict despite a head coach who has gone 31-8 in his first three years at the program (at least two of which losses would not have occurred without the injuries last year) and 108-14 in his last nine years. You must see something that I don't....... something disguised........ something damn well disguised .......... .Luca
Perhaps Mr. G is just trying to stimulate conversation. It does seem likely that SM will be, at worst, 4-1, going into league. That assumes they lose to Gorman, which IMO is far from a given. Two of their Trinity league opponents will be particularly challenging, but they at least get Bosco at home. MD at the bowl is tough and SM was beaten there by MD a few years back when SM was much the better team. They should be solid favorites over Servite, OLU and JSerra. So, that leaves them at 7-3 for the season in a worst case scenario, however I would not count them out in any of these games, including the two against the league's supposed favorites.
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Mr. Grady »

SM will have their hands full this year and although they may finish the non-league portion strong they may fade fast afterward. Carson is a gimme and they should be favored against Dorsey and Trabuco Hills, but that presumes they come out of Corona Centennial, Amat and BG healthy and focused and not banged up and demoralized. I worry about the athleticism and depth particularly on the defensive side of the ball and wonder if Amat and BG won't be decisive 42-17 losses. (They are likely going to get exposed vs. Centennial in the scrimmage but their PR machine will explain that away as a meaningless warm-up for Amat.) Their 11 starters on D may be solid and disciplined players as they always are but beyond that they will have question marks.

I also don't see a lot of clear advantages over Trintiy league opponents except the line (over JSerra) and staff (over Servite) unlike last year when their defense was deep and underrated and the line was bigger than any other. Their depth situation from what I've been told is scary and the way they get worked over in practice they have to pray nobody gets hurt in the next two months. Today you'd have to favor them over Servite and you'd have to think JSerra will run out of linemen by Week 10. OLu will run wild until the cows come home and MD and SJB will be bad losses. So, OK, maybe 5-5, 2-3.
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Luca »

Well, that's an interesting scenario and certainly not impossible even considering that no Coach Welch team has lost that much or that badly in nine years (excluding last year to Bosco playing their third string quarterback). The observation that "they should be favored against Dorsey and Trabuco Hills" strikes me as a model of understatement, given that they were 2-1 versus the former even in SM's worst seasons and have outscored Trabuco 90 – 14 in the last two years, but technically you are correct.

I've never heard of a team getting banged up to any degree in a scrimmage, but it's possible.
Bishop Amat has scored 42 points against a prominent opponent once (Notre Dame) in the last four years, but it's possible.
It may seem unlikely that with an offensive line returning three starters and averaging 6'3" and 280 that they won't have any advantages except over JSerra, but it's possible.
They have the most successful coach in the Southern Section over the last nine years but that'll be no advantage except over Servite. Possible.
Orange Lutheran with its 4-11 league record over the last three years will "run wild." Always possible.

Likewise we can't rule out the threat of lightning strikes, spontaneous combustion and terrorist attacks, etc. We'll probably just have to see how things play out........Luca
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by sammy swordsman »

The way I see it is that no one will be running the table in the Trinity this year. With so much parity between Bosco, Md, Sm and Servite, any team can win on any given week. Each team matches up differently and will present unique problems to the others.

SM - has the coaching edge and enough talent to win if they can control the ball and eat the clock to keep the high powered offenses off the field. SM will play conservative ball control and try to capitalize on turn overs.

MD will be MD and try to use their size on the lines to impose their will. Md made a nice run last year, but there may have been some smoke and mirrors as they turned into a pumpkin in the final. They lost their ability to stretch defenses vertically. MD has been successful lately on the lower levels mainly due to being bigger on he lines. This advantage diminishes as the kids move to varsity, when speed and the skill positions often provide the separation.

Bosco - this team appears to be exceptionally talented. The key for the Braves will be the ability to check egos, limit turnovers and become a "team" . Negro and his staff are the reason Bosco is getting extra consideration. Bosco has had filthy talent before but were unable to harness it and make it gel.

Servite - new staff and a lot of talented juniors = slow start, but will be much improved by week 6 and will factor in the Trimity. The Friars must not get discouraged and stay healthy while navigating through their brutal non league schedule.
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by templar83 »

sammy swordsman wrote:The way I see it is that no one will be running the table in the Trinity this year. With so much parity between Bosco, Md, Sm and Servite, any team can win on any given week. Each team matches up differently and will present unique problems to the others.

SM - has the coaching edge and enough talent to win if they can control the ball and eat the clock to keep the high powered offenses off the field. SM will play conservative ball control and try to capitalize on turn overs.

MD will be MD and try to use their size on the lines to impose their will. Md made a nice run last year, but there may have been some smoke and mirrors as they turned into a pumpkin in the final. They lost their ability to stretch defenses vertically. MD has been successful lately on the lower levels mainly due to being bigger on he lines. This advantage diminishes as the kids move to varsity, when speed and the skill positions often provide the separation.

Bosco - this team appears to be exceptionally talented. The key for the Braves will be the ability to check egos, limit turnovers and become a "team" . Negro and his staff are the reason Bosco is getting extra consideration. Bosco has had filthy talent before but were unable to harness it and make it gel.

Servite - new staff and a lot of talented juniors = slow start, but will be much improved by week 6 and will factor in the Trimity. The Friars must not get discouraged and stay healthy while navigating through their brutal non league schedule.
Sounds like you've nailed it. Bosco needs to become a "team", MD is all smoke and mirrors, SM is well coached and Servite is LOADED with a talented junior class. OLU and JSerra are apparently not worth mention. Oh, and there is complete parity in the Trinity league, except, sadly, for the aforementioned Olu and JSerra. I have to wonder about the other schools' talent at the sophomore and junior level, oh that's right, you covered that, at least in regards to MD, they regress while Servite improves.
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by downtothewire »

sammy swordsman wrote:The way I see it is that no one will be running the table in the Trinity this year. With so much parity between Bosco, Md, Sm and Servite, any team can win on any given week. Each team matches up differently and will present unique problems to the others.

SM - has the coaching edge and enough talent to win if they can control the ball and eat the clock to keep the high powered offenses off the field. SM will play conservative ball control and try to capitalize on turn overs.

MD will be MD and try to use their size on the lines to impose their will. Md made a nice run last year, but there may have been some smoke and mirrors as they turned into a pumpkin in the final. They lost their ability to stretch defenses vertically. MD has been successful lately on the lower levels mainly due to being bigger on he lines. This advantage diminishes as the kids move to varsity, when speed and the skill positions often provide the separation.

Bosco - this team appears to be exceptionally talented. The key for the Braves will be the ability to check egos, limit turnovers and become a "team" . Negro and his staff are the reason Bosco is getting extra consideration. Bosco has had filthy talent before but were unable to harness it and make it gel.

Servite - new staff and a lot of talented juniors = slow start, but will be much improved by week 6 and will factor in the Trinity. The Friars must not get discouraged and stay healthy while navigating through their brutal non league schedule.
I expect it to come down to MD and Bosco, with JSerra, Servite, and SMCHS fighting for 3rd. But I have a feeling there will be a couple of upsets no one saw coming.
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Re: Fact or Fiction on Servite, MD, MV, SM, SJB

Post by Grinder »

1. MD
2. Bosco
3. SM
4,5 OLU or Servite
6. JSerra
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