It can be done, but the Trinity now is a different animal, much better than that old Serra league. I'm still going with Servite at 3-7 based on current data.
And I agree that the bigger joke is that all those Moore league teams are guaranteed spots. Why the hell does the CIF agree with that idiocy? Everybody who's remotely familiar with CIF football knows that the Moore league is nothing more than a pyramid. Who gains from giving them runner-up spots spots when it's a virtually guaranteed loss for each of them?
I'll make a premature shoot from the hip prediction:
Bosco is a lock to take league again.
JSerra is runner-up again. Maybe Mater Dei. (To answer your question, Mater Dei is rarely weak. Over the years they have been very consistent, not uncommonly performing better than you would expect on paper. They have lost the edge they used to have but they are still a traditionally consistent and competitive performer. It's the biggest school in the Trinity with a lot of players and intact coaching staff. No specific inside information, it's just an assessment based on history.)
Santa Margarita takes the number four spot but might edge Mater Dei.
Lutheran and Servite battle for the number five spot and I think I give the edge here to Lutheran because I thought they were actually pretty good last year and they have a returning head coach (I think).........Luca
1. Maxpreps is so riddled with mistakes and inaccuracies, it's a miracle than anyone still considers them a reliable source of information.
2. Picking a league finish in February is a like a kid counting up his toys a week before Christmas. In both cases, mom and dad haven't gone on their shopping sprees yet, and things are bound to look very different when they are done.
3. Beerseach, I've advocated for years that only league champs (and co-champs) get automatic playoff spots with all other spots being selected at-large, but who the hell listens to me? Interestingly, if that were the process this past season, Servite would have still easily made the playoffs.
In boys and girls basketball, the CIF has demonstrated they have the ability to pick the top 16 teams to place in the Open Division playoffs out of a population of 570+ schools, so they can certainly pick the top 16 football teams from a Pac-5 population of 30.
Last time I checked the 2nd place team from the BIGVIII won its first round playoff game...thats more then a lot of leagues can say
And what would the criteria be? How would you pick them? Based of wins? SOS? Good wins? Good losses (this for the Servite faithfull)? State Rankings?
Funny how you bring up CC league The BigVIII....You leave out the Marmonte league who didn`t wini any playoff games...lol...
A reasonable hunch.templar83 wrote:Luca, just wondering, why are you so confident in JSerra?
I think they have the best coaching staff in the Trinity. That in itself counts for a lot.
They're going to have a pretty effective offensive line with two or three returners, Including one highly recruited OT and a likely future top recruit.
They'll have two very good running backs.
I don't know much about the wide receivers but they'll have what is probably a better than average quarterback.
The defense has to be put together but I think they'll be able to improvise.
The program's confidence is up and they have what is likely their best ever freshman class moving up (Bosco was supposed to have a superlative freshman class but, my God, they got crushed by JSerra) with three or four significant contributors in it.
I think they'll be reasonably good, and maybe good enough to take second place...............Luca
It's accessible and it's pretty comprehensive. I don't know any other sites with as much information.MDDad wrote:. Maxpreps is so riddled with mistakes and inaccuracies, it's a miracle than anyone still considers them a reliable source of information.
As Winston said:
"My sources are unreliable but their information is fascinating."
I can't think of anyone..............LucaMDDad wrote:........but who the hell listens to me? .
Picking the right criteria would be an interesting discussion, but it probably belongs in a new thread not entitled "Servite Football 2015".RoadRunner wrote:And what would the criteria be? How would you pick them? Based of wins? SOS? Good wins? Good losses (this for the Servite faithfull)? State Rankings?
Based on wins? Absolutely not, because that would encourage teams to schedule cupcakes in the preseason to start 5-0 going into league. I think that's the last thing we want to do, because one Los Alamitos is enough.
SOS? Absolutely not, because SOS considers only the strength of the opponent and disregards whether you beat them or lost to them. Treating wins and losses the same makes no sense.
Good wins? Possibly, if we define a good win as beating a team that you should have lost to.
Good losses? Absolutely not. I believe there is no such thing as a good loss. Scheduling a team you should lose to, and then losing to them, shouldn't provide any Brownie points to bolster a given record.
State rankings? Not by themselves, because such rankings are too subjective. However, averaging CalHiSports state rankings, L.A. Times Southern California rankings, CIF-SS Pac-5 rankings and Calpreps power ratings has some merit.
Another method that has potential is this: The Saturday morning after the Week 10 games, simply add up the power ratings of every team you beat. That rewards wins, but it also rewards beating better teams rather than cupcakes, and it doesn't award points for overscheduling and losing to far superior teams.
If this method had been used at the end of the last regular season, the Pac-5 playoffs would have looked like this:
Automatic Berths (League Champs)
Corona Centennial, Big VIII champ
Westlake, Marmonte champ
Bishop Amat, Mission tri-champ
Crespi, Mission tri-champ
Gardena Serra, Mission tri-champ
Long Beach Poly, Moore champ
St. John Bosco, Trinity champ
Mater Dei, Trinity, 397.3 points (cumulative power ratings of all the teams they beat)
JSerra, Trinity, 364.4
Alemany, Mission, 296.7
Santa Margarita, Trinity, 234.2
Notre Dame, Mission, 193.3
St. Bonaventure, Marmonte, 164.6
Chaminade, Mission, 147.5
Servite, Trinity, 127.0
Loyola, Mission, 124.8
Norco, Big VIII, 124.4
Corona Santiago, Big VIII, 118.7
Orange Lutheran, Trinity, 113.5
Et tu, Brasi?Luca wrote:I can't think of anyone..............Luca
By the way, did you know the actor who played Brasi in The Godfather once actually worked for the Colombo family in New York City? Here's a tidbit from Wikipedia:
Of course, information in Wikipedia is sometimes no more reliable than what is found in Maxpreps.Montana became involved with the Colombo Organized Crime family in the late 1960s. Tall and very heavily built, his talents were mostly as an enforcer and an arsonist. He would tie a tampon to the tail of a mouse, dip it in kerosene, light it, and let the mouse run through a building, or he would put a candle in front of a cuckoo clock so that when the clock's bird would pop out the candle would be knocked over and start a fire. Eventually, Montana ended up doing time in Riker's Island Prison. Upon being released, as a friend of the family, Montana would act as a bodyguard for many of the senior members of the Colombo Family.