Servite Football 2015

Yeahboiyee
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by Yeahboiyee » Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:50 am

Luca, Do you really thing MD is going to be that strong next year? How and why? I think they are in for a disappointing couple of years.

downtothewire
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by downtothewire » Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:52 am

Max preps is wrong. TT won his Div. X title with Crespi in 2004. His first year with Servite was 2005, a 10-3 record, one game away from a championship appearance in his first year.

It can be done, but the Trinity now is a different animal, much better than that old Serra league. I'm still going with Servite at 3-7 based on current data.

Luca
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by Luca » Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:55 am

I was wrong. It was Coach Toner who went 2-8 and then retired. Coach Thomas did have a highly successful first year and I'd forgotten that.

And I agree that the bigger joke is that all those Moore league teams are guaranteed spots. Why the hell does the CIF agree with that idiocy? Everybody who's remotely familiar with CIF football knows that the Moore league is nothing more than a pyramid. Who gains from giving them runner-up spots spots when it's a virtually guaranteed loss for each of them?

I'll make a premature shoot from the hip prediction:
Bosco is a lock to take league again.

JSerra is runner-up again. Maybe Mater Dei. (To answer your question, Mater Dei is rarely weak. Over the years they have been very consistent, not uncommonly performing better than you would expect on paper. They have lost the edge they used to have but they are still a traditionally consistent and competitive performer. It's the biggest school in the Trinity with a lot of players and intact coaching staff. No specific inside information, it's just an assessment based on history.)

Santa Margarita takes the number four spot but might edge Mater Dei.

Lutheran and Servite battle for the number five spot and I think I give the edge here to Lutheran because I thought they were actually pretty good last year and they have a returning head coach (I think).........Luca

beerseach
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by beerseach » Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:26 pm

I think as far as the Pac 5 goes, you reward league champs with a playoff spot then wildcard the rest of it. Its the only fair way to do it....

templar83
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by templar83 » Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:32 pm

Luca, just wondering, why are you so confident in JSerra?

MDDad
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by MDDad » Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:35 pm

Three points:

1. Maxpreps is so riddled with mistakes and inaccuracies, it's a miracle than anyone still considers them a reliable source of information.

2. Picking a league finish in February is a like a kid counting up his toys a week before Christmas. In both cases, mom and dad haven't gone on their shopping sprees yet, and things are bound to look very different when they are done.

3. Beerseach, I've advocated for years that only league champs (and co-champs) get automatic playoff spots with all other spots being selected at-large, but who the hell listens to me? Interestingly, if that were the process this past season, Servite would have still easily made the playoffs.

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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by beerseach » Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:46 pm

Servite would have made it as well as Alemany and no one would have been in an uproar. More deserviong teams would have made it as well over Cabrillo and what ever other awful teams from Centennials league got in...

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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by MDDad » Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:52 pm

The other thing that needs to go is the silly, arbitrary points formula for picking at-large teams.

In boys and girls basketball, the CIF has demonstrated they have the ability to pick the top 16 teams to place in the Open Division playoffs out of a population of 570+ schools, so they can certainly pick the top 16 football teams from a Pac-5 population of 30.

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RoadRunner
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by RoadRunner » Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:09 pm

Servite would have made it as well as Alemany and no one would have been in an uproar. More deserviong teams would have made it as well over Cabrillo and what ever other awful teams from Centennials league got in...

Last time I checked the 2nd place team from the BIGVIII won its first round playoff game...thats more then a lot of leagues can say
" Inter-National Scouting Director for Youth Football"

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RoadRunner
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by RoadRunner » Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:12 pm

so they can certainly pick the top 16 football teams from a Pac-5 population of 30.

And what would the criteria be? How would you pick them? Based of wins? SOS? Good wins? Good losses (this for the Servite faithfull)? State Rankings?
" Inter-National Scouting Director for Youth Football"

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RoadRunner
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by RoadRunner » Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:21 pm

Luca, I'm not sure if I disagree or agree with your statement that a 1-4 Trinity League Servite team making the playoffs is a joke. I ask myself is it a joke? I want to say yes but I can't. Three teams from the Moore league are guaranteed playoff spots same from Corona Centennials league. That to me is the JOKE. Other than LB Poly (who needed a Servite choke job to beat that 1-4 Servite team by 1 point) and Corona Centennial, none of the other teams in either of those leagues would win a game in the Trinity league, except for a once in a ten year blue moon. If it was like basketball where an 0-10 team makes the playoffs 3 divisions down I would understand the frustration. But Servite was still placed in the top division for football and should have beaten a Pac 5 Semi final team (it could be argued anyway). So that being said, I can't totally agree that a 1-4 Trinity League team should not make the playoffs if all other criteria are satisfied. N ot when those other awful sorry azz leagues are gonna take up 4 spots in the Pac 5 every year. Thats not just a joke but a crime...

Funny how you bring up CC league The BigVIII....You leave out the Marmonte league who didn`t wini any playoff games...lol...
" Inter-National Scouting Director for Youth Football"

Luca
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by Luca » Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:00 pm

templar83 wrote:Luca, just wondering, why are you so confident in JSerra?
A reasonable hunch.

I think they have the best coaching staff in the Trinity. That in itself counts for a lot.

They're going to have a pretty effective offensive line with two or three returners, Including one highly recruited OT and a likely future top recruit.
They'll have two very good running backs.
I don't know much about the wide receivers but they'll have what is probably a better than average quarterback.

The defense has to be put together but I think they'll be able to improvise.
The program's confidence is up and they have what is likely their best ever freshman class moving up (Bosco was supposed to have a superlative freshman class but, my God, they got crushed by JSerra) with three or four significant contributors in it.

I think they'll be reasonably good, and maybe good enough to take second place...............Luca

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RoadRunner
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by RoadRunner » Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:08 pm

My dark horse in the TL this year is OL....
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Luca
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by Luca » Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:16 pm

MDDad wrote:. Maxpreps is so riddled with mistakes and inaccuracies, it's a miracle than anyone still considers them a reliable source of information.
It's accessible and it's pretty comprehensive. I don't know any other sites with as much information.

As Winston said:
"My sources are unreliable but their information is fascinating."

MDDad wrote:........but who the hell listens to me? .
I can't think of anyone..............Luca

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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by MDDad » Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:28 pm

RoadRunner wrote:And what would the criteria be? How would you pick them? Based of wins? SOS? Good wins? Good losses (this for the Servite faithfull)? State Rankings?
Picking the right criteria would be an interesting discussion, but it probably belongs in a new thread not entitled "Servite Football 2015".

Based on wins? Absolutely not, because that would encourage teams to schedule cupcakes in the preseason to start 5-0 going into league. I think that's the last thing we want to do, because one Los Alamitos is enough.

SOS? Absolutely not, because SOS considers only the strength of the opponent and disregards whether you beat them or lost to them. Treating wins and losses the same makes no sense.

Good wins? Possibly, if we define a good win as beating a team that you should have lost to.

Good losses? Absolutely not. I believe there is no such thing as a good loss. Scheduling a team you should lose to, and then losing to them, shouldn't provide any Brownie points to bolster a given record.

State rankings? Not by themselves, because such rankings are too subjective. However, averaging CalHiSports state rankings, L.A. Times Southern California rankings, CIF-SS Pac-5 rankings and Calpreps power ratings has some merit.

Another method that has potential is this: The Saturday morning after the Week 10 games, simply add up the power ratings of every team you beat. That rewards wins, but it also rewards beating better teams rather than cupcakes, and it doesn't award points for overscheduling and losing to far superior teams.

If this method had been used at the end of the last regular season, the Pac-5 playoffs would have looked like this:

Automatic Berths (League Champs)
Corona Centennial, Big VIII champ
Westlake, Marmonte champ
Bishop Amat, Mission tri-champ
Crespi, Mission tri-champ
Gardena Serra, Mission tri-champ
Long Beach Poly, Moore champ
St. John Bosco, Trinity champ

At-Large Berths
Mater Dei, Trinity, 397.3 points (cumulative power ratings of all the teams they beat)
JSerra, Trinity, 364.4
Alemany, Mission, 296.7
Santa Margarita, Trinity, 234.2
Notre Dame, Mission, 193.3
St. Bonaventure, Marmonte, 164.6
Chaminade, Mission, 147.5
Servite, Trinity, 127.0
Loyola, Mission, 124.8

Just Missed
Norco, Big VIII, 124.4
Corona Santiago, Big VIII, 118.7
Orange Lutheran, Trinity, 113.5

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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by MDDad » Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:35 pm

Luca wrote:I can't think of anyone..............Luca
Et tu, Brasi?

By the way, did you know the actor who played Brasi in The Godfather once actually worked for the Colombo family in New York City? Here's a tidbit from Wikipedia:
Montana became involved with the Colombo Organized Crime family in the late 1960s. Tall and very heavily built, his talents were mostly as an enforcer and an arsonist. He would tie a tampon to the tail of a mouse, dip it in kerosene, light it, and let the mouse run through a building, or he would put a candle in front of a cuckoo clock so that when the clock's bird would pop out the candle would be knocked over and start a fire. Eventually, Montana ended up doing time in Riker's Island Prison. Upon being released, as a friend of the family, Montana would act as a bodyguard for many of the senior members of the Colombo Family.
Of course, information in Wikipedia is sometimes no more reliable than what is found in Maxpreps.

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RoadRunner
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by RoadRunner » Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:51 pm

MDDad....Im ok with that...seems fair...thanks for the response...
" Inter-National Scouting Director for Youth Football"

beerseach
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by beerseach » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:13 am

Roadrunner, you are correct. Throw in the Marmonte league as well. Who was the BigVIII 2nd place team and who did they beat?

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Johnny Utah
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by Johnny Utah » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:49 am

Norco beat St Bonnies.
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beerseach
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Re: Servite Football 2015

Post by beerseach » Mon Mar 02, 2015 12:19 pm

Norco beat St. Bonaventure....ok so they got a win versus the Marmonte League...my bad, I missed that one...

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