2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII


downtothewire
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby downtothewire » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:59 pm

So what's a Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, etc. team? Are certain divisions slotted into certain tiers? Is that it?

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:35 pm

Tiers are based on the number of wins. Not exactly certain of the ranges, but something like - Tier 1 would be 9+; T2 6-8; T3 3-5; T4 0-2

Taylorgang812
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Taylorgang812 » Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:58 am

Definitely will be interesting to see the incoming freshmen classes at these schools

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TommyTrojan
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby TommyTrojan » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:33 pm

That CIF system also punishes you for playing tougher teams or being in a tough league, while rewarding easy schedules.

A loss against a good team gives you a ton of points (regardless of score) compared to a win over a lesser team. Not to pick on them, but a team like Garden Grove has found a sweet spot where they have a decent non-league schedule, but one that isn't going to give them too many points, while running the table in their league and still not getting many points. Thus they have been able to stay at the bottom of D9 and could even drop down considering their first round loss in CIF.

The new Sunset is likely to hurt its members as well. CdM will no longer get the benefit of lower points from beating Northwood/Irvine/Uni and could see them catapult up rapidly given their strong pre-season. What are the odds that the 3rd place Sunset team doesn't make the playoffs next year? Depending upon the division, they could get left out.

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:59 pm

TommyTrojan wrote:Source of the post What are the odds that the 3rd place Sunset team doesn't make the playoffs next year? Depending upon the division, they could get left out.


Pretty remote. 3rd place team is an auto-qualifier. D 2-6 all have had multiple AL teams the past 2 years.

MDDad
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby MDDad » Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:13 pm

TT & Bick, you both raise good points. Bick, keep in mind that finishing third in the Sunset League indeed makes one an auto-qualifier, but it's only for consideration for a playoff spot. With 15 leagues represented in D-2, and 16 in D-3, being an auto-qualifier guarantees nothing.

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:10 pm

It guarantees you would get in before any AL teams did.

MDDad
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby MDDad » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:45 pm

Yes, but that's only a theoretical advantage. With 15 leagues vying for 16 playoff spots, and with first- and second-place teams taking priority, it will be the rare cold day in hell when a third-place team can assume they're in.

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:56 pm

Not sure I'm following you. If we're talking about a 3rd place team in the Sunset (6 team league), they're in as an AQ before any AL team gets a sniff. Since the new alignment, there's been multiple AL teams in D 1-6. Cart may be before the horse looking ahead to this season, but it's pretty assured the top 3 will be Los Al, Edison and CDM. They'll all be in D2 or 3, so it's a pretty good bet they'd all be in.

DBolts
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby DBolts » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:46 pm

You mean Edison/LosAl/CdM....3rd place finisher likely into playoffs regardless of D2/D3. 3rd place qualifier likely gets 16 seed though...tough draw in either D2 or D3. Tesoro was 3rd place qualifier as the 16 seed in D2 last year. Know better after the rankings come out and seeing how many leagues are in D2 and D3 each. Also look to see if there are any teams that could project to have a big fall off due to prior year graduation or transfers--that makes it easier for 3rd place qualifiers. Look at Buena Park (D3) and La Mirada (D2) from last year.

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:30 pm

I'm pretty sure I had it right. T-shirt I'm wearing right now reads 2017 Sunset Champs, and it's not green or yellow.

3rd place team not necessarily the 16 seed. 8 league champs in D2 last year. Edison was essentially #12 as the second place team in the Sunset last year. CDM was head and shoulders above LM and Arroyo last year.

Tesoro was an AL team - Notre Dame was the other (as a 5th place team). The 15 seed was 2nd place La Mirada. Oddly, REV (another 3rd place AQ team) was treated as a #9 seed, as they played #8 Cathedral.

mdnc1994
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby mdnc1994 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:42 pm

Bick wrote:Done the preliminary math on 2018. It will be close, but I think they'll stay in D2. There's a metric called "Power Points" that isn't really very easy to figure out. It's another function of strength of schedule.

Prelim D2

Norco 474.71
Oaks Christian 474.12
Calabasas 473.99
Upland 469.68
Notre Dame/SO 468.69
Edison 463.95
Poly/Long Beach 452.33
Heritage 451.50
Rancho Verde 450.09
Cathedral 445.80
Tesoro 444.83
Los Alamitos 440.52
Lompoc 438.45
Great Oak 437.56
La Habra 436.31
Capistrano Valley 436.30
Westlake 435.20
Sierra Canyon 433.96


Power-points are taken into account, but if a team is a semi-finalist, they are moving up regardless, but only 1 division, based on how they have done it the past 2 years. Basically, take the bottom 4 of each division, move them down 1, & the top 4 of each division, move them up 1. For the higher divisions like 1 & 2, halve that, so 2 teams move down into D2, Loyola & Alemany, 2 move up, Rancho Verde & St. Francis. I don't believe CIF will bump a team like Capo, from D4 to D2. I may be wrong. Based on that, you can probably expect D2 to look like this:

Loyola (Lowest D1)
Alemany (Lowest D1)
Edison
Los Al
REV
La Habra
Tesoro
Cathedral
Calabassas
La Mirada
Arroyo Grande
Norco
Notre Dame
Great Oak
Upland
Heritage
Rancho Verde (Champion D3)
St. Francis (Runner-up D3)

Based on what they have done the last 2 years, there won't be sweeping changes to the divisions.

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:43 pm

mdnc1994 wrote:Source of the post Power-points are taken into account, but if a team is a semi-finalist, they are moving up regardless, but only 1 division, based on how they have done it the past 2 years


There's a formula CIF uses - to say it's complex might be a major understatement.

mdnc1994 wrote:Source of the post I don't believe CIF will bump a team like Capo, from D4 to D2.


Except that Calabasas went from D5 to D2 in 2017.

MDDad
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby MDDad » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:47 pm

The formulas required to predict the movements of all the planets, stars and galaxies in the universe is child's play compared to the CIF's divisional placement algorithm.

mdnc1994
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby mdnc1994 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:26 pm

Bick wrote:There's a formula CIF uses - to say it's complex might be a major understatement.



Except that Calabasas went from D5 to D2 in 2017.


That's fair to say, but I did add that I could be wrong. Calabasas is the only example of this in the entire section, which makes it an anomaly. This doesn't discount what you say, which is that the formula that CIF uses to determine where to place teams is complicated, but if you look at the rest of the division breakdowns from last summer, my statement is accurate. There may be deviation from this, but it would be difficult to justify bumping a team that not only didn't win it's division, but did not make the final.

BBB
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby BBB » Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:28 pm

mdnc1994 wrote:Based on that, you can probably expect D2 to look like this:

Loyola (Lowest D1)
Alemany (Lowest D1)
Edison
Los Al
REV
La Habra
Tesoro
Cathedral
Calabassas
La Mirada
Arroyo Grande
Norco
Notre Dame
Great Oak
Upland
Heritage
Rancho Verde (Champion D3)
St. Francis (Runner-up D3)


Just for fun, since it is really early and I’m sure unexpected transfers will alter the future discussion, who are the early favorites in D2? Assuming, of course, Oaks Christian and Valencia both move to D1.

La Habra returns a tremendous amount of impressive young talent with a seasoned and accomplished coaching staff. Need to break in some new linemen, but they’re looking very strong at the skill positions on both sides of the ball. My early sleeper pick to make it to the finals.

Calabasas has some impressive young talent too, but a new head coach could throw a wrench in this prediction. If the kids stay, could be a really tough team to stop.

Norco lost Dye but they have Winner Circle Athletics pushing kids their way. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them rise up again, but they will have to figure out their QB situation. Does the transfer kid Illingworth replace the returning starter? RR - what’s your insight on next year?

Upland lost their top RB who graduated, their QB to IMG, and they graduated most of their offensive line. Also lost some of their better DBs too I believe. Too much to overcome? Will more kids jump ship?

Edison and Los Al have way too much to replace. Don’t see them making a deep run.

Does anyone know what Heritage will look like next year?

How about Loyola and Alemany?

mdnc1994
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby mdnc1994 » Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:04 am

I get where you're coming from, but coaching changes & players leaving don't factor in when it comes to rating a team for the upcoming season. It's solely based upon what you have done in the previous years on the field. if it were not, CZIF would have a rating system for student-athelets so that they could accurately evaluate the product on the field, or about to be on the field, in order to offset any discrepancies...

MDDad
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby MDDad » Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:21 am

mdnc1994 wrote:if it were not, CZIF would have a rating system for student-athelets so that they could accurately evaluate the product on the field, or about to be on the field, in order to offset any discrepancies...

A common mistake people make is they imagine the CIF as some sort of omnipotent think-tank with unlimited resources that can come up with things like a rating system for roughly 20,000 kids who play high school football in the Southern Section. They're not. They're 11 mediocre bureaucrats with five "assistants" who do a fair-to-poor job of enforcing the rules (or pretending to) that the member schools vote in. They could no more come up with an effective player rating system than they could put a man on the moon.

Bick
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Re: 2018 Sunset League/DII/DIII

Postby Bick » Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:41 am

mdnc1994 wrote:Source of the post That's fair to say, but I did add that I could be wrong. Calabasas is the only example of this in the entire section, which makes it an anomaly. This doesn't discount what you say, which is that the formula that CIF uses to determine where to place teams is complicated, but if you look at the rest of the division breakdowns from last summer, my statement is accurate. There may be deviation from this, but it would be difficult to justify bumping a team that not only didn't win it's division, but did not make the final.


It would be great if the system were as simple as you outline. Sierra Canyon also seems to have enough to be moved from D4 to D2. A couple other corrections to who you had. One certainly is Arroyo Grande. They're leaving the section with the rest of the Pac-5. La Mirada will likely drop out as well. Downey and Lompoc might have enough to skip from D4 to D2.

If you'd like, PM me and I'll send you the excel sheet with the formula.

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