Playoff Bracket Guesses

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Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by MDDad » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:00 pm

The final CIF poll of the season has been released, and Mission Viejo's loss to San Clemente dropped them all the way to #8. If there are no more upsets this weekend, here's one guess at the D-1 playoff brackets:

Rancho Cucamonga (Baseline 2) at #1 St. John Bosco (Trinity 1)
Mission Viejo (South Coast 2) at Long Beach Poly (Moore 1)

Murrieta Valley (Southwestern 2) at #4 Oaks Christian (Marmonte 1)
Orange Lutheran (Trinity At-Large) at Bishop Amat (Mission 1)

Gardena Serra (Mission At Large) at #2 Corona Centennial (Big VIII 1)
JSerra (Trinity 3) at San Clemente (South Coast 1)

#3 Mater Dei (Trinity 2) at Valencia (Foothill 1)
Chaminade (Mission 3) at Vista Murrieta (Southwestern 1)

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by SK80 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:04 pm

Great consolation prize for SC.... :(

MDDad..., do you think if SC got bumped first round they would go back to D2 or did that MV win likely keep them in D1 next year?
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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by RoadRunner » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:09 pm

MDDad

How about D2? Little help please :mrgreen:
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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by MDDad » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:16 pm

Roadrunner, D-2 is a tougher bitch because if you follow one rule you break another. However, here's a best guess.

Alemany (Mission 3) at #1 Rancho Verde (Ivy 1)
Westlake (Marmonte At Large) at San Juan Hills (Sea View 1)

St. Francis (Angelus 2) vs. #4 Norco (Big VIII 2) coin flip determines home team
Tesoro (South Coast At Large) at Los Alamitos (Sunset 1)

Edison (Sunset 3) at #2 Upland (Baseline 1)
Heritage (Ivy 2) at La Habra (Freeway 1)

Redlands East Valley (Citrus Belt 2) vs. #3 Calabasas (Marmonte 2) coin flip determines home team
Notre Dame (Mission 2) at Cathedral (Angelus 1)

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by MDDad » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:20 pm

SK80 wrote:Great consolation prize for SC.... :(

MDDad..., do you think if SC got bumped first round they would go back to D2 or did that MV win likely keep them in D1 next year?
That's impossible to say, except that one win doesn't determine whether or not a team moves up or down. There are too many other factors involved, and any movement depends on how all the other teams around them do.

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by SK80 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:24 pm

yet the MV is part of the collective "total", "score" "rank" points" etc..... yes a lot goes into it.
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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by dntn31 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:23 pm

Here's my take
Capture.PNG
Capture.PNG (20.09 KiB) Viewed 2288 times
Rationale (going from the top of the bracket down):

#1 Seed: I think they would pair #1/SJB with the following teams in order of decreasing priority: At-Large team/3rd place qualifier/2nd place qualifier. I'm projecting the 2 at-large teams to be Trinity teams so I think they will move to the next tier which only has on viable team: Serra (although there a ton of possible outcomes for the Mission league). If either Serra or Chaminade advances as an At-Large over Servite (via coinflips and a 5-5 record or some other scneario) then I think they draw SJB 100%. If one of them advances as a 3rd place representative I think it is more likely SJB will draw them over a #2 representative.

"#8 Seed": The standard slotting of ranked #1 teams breaks down here as the #8 and #9 teams are non-#1 league reps (MV and OLU). I think they basically swap MV and San Clemente in the 8/10 spots as SC is both the next closest ranked #1 league rep and it preserves the South Coast #1/#2 segregation on opposite sides of the bracket.

"#5 Seed" I think they slot JSerra in the top half of the bracket to honor their #5 seed and slot them against the 2nd lowest "ranked" #1 league rep (Poly - only Valencia and Poly are not ranked in the top 10 of the CIF poll and I have to believe they would "rank" Valencia below Poly).

#4 Seed: Oaks draws Murrieta Valley as the #2 rep from the Southwestern league by virtue of Vista Murrieta being the #7 seed and slotting in the bottom half of the bracket and the need to segregate those two teams on opposite sides of the bracket.

#3 Seed: Since there are 8 #1 teams, Mater Dei will likely draw the lowest "ranked" #1 league rep which is Valencia in order to preserve the first round byes for #1 teams.

"#6 Seed': Bishop Amat draws the lowest "ranked' between RC and MV... which would be RC.

"#7 Seed": Vista Murrieta draws the highes "ranked' between RC and MV... which is MV

"#2 Seed": Cen10 draws the lowest "ranked" At-Large team from the available pool... which is Servite.

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by FBOC » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:54 pm

Funny in the two above scenarios MV gets easier first round match up than if they were the 5 seed. This depends if they even beat Tesoro. Can't believe just one year removed from BJ I am seriously discussing a possible loss to Tesoro, a loss to a 4 loss SC team and a 7 pt win over Capo who has lost 2 straight after the MV game.

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by Omar Bongo » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:57 pm

Funny in the two above scenarios MV gets easier first round match up than if they were the 5 seed

Which is why it makes more sense to make matchups by CIF ranking/power rating than it does to do it by league finish. You'd rather face the #2 in any other league than the Trinity #3 or #4


Oaks draws Murrieta Valley as the #2 rep from the Southwestern league

Not sure the CIF will be keen to match them up since they already played during the season and the game was over by halftime. Maybe have Murrieta V switch places with Serra? Bosco should play the lower ranked team anyway, Serra is #46 in CA while MV is #72...
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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by FBOC » Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:52 pm

I agree the system needs to change. Are you saying Mission should play Serra instead of Murrieta? Looks like Serra needs to win just to make the playoffs

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by Omar Bongo » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:20 pm

Omar Bongo wrote:have Murrieta V switch places with Serra
Have Serra (CA #46) play Oaks C and Murrieta V (CA #72) play Bosco

Looks like Serra needs to win just to make the playoffs

Yes, good teams in competitive leagues have to battle for a spot whilst champions of weak leagues get a free pass
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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by 2002tony » Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:33 am

FBOC wrote:I agree the system needs to change. Are you saying Mission should play Serra instead of Murrieta? Looks like Serra needs to win just to make the playoffs
There is a good chance Serra is not going to be the 3rd place team out of the Mission but rather an at-large team. There may have to be a coin flip on who is 3rd place since Serra lost to Chaminade. Serra beat Alemany but Almany beat Chaminade and they all may end up with a 2-3 record in league.

If Alemany wins that flip and is named as the 3rd place team then I think Chaminade goes into the pool for at-large bids first and Serra will not make the playoffs.

why - Olu and Nade and possibly MV (if they lose to Tesoro), will get in the pool to be judged first for an At large bid. This will result in Olu getting the first bid because they will have the only 5-5 record of those teams in the pool. ( a league can only have one team at a time in the pool to be judged for an at-large bid )

OLu comes out of the pool, Servite goes into the pool, and again the judging process begins with those teams in the pool. Servite ( or MV if they are in the pool) will get the next bid. If MV was in the pool then they will get the next At-Large bid over Servite and Nade. Servite will get the next bid, leaving Chaminade with the last bid and Serra out of the playoffs.

If Chaminade beats ND this week (and BA beats Alemany) , then Nade becomes the 2nd place team with an auto bid, and ND is the 3rd place team. ND is in Div 2. This will make Serra an at-large team also and most likely Servite will not be in the playoffs.

Why - OLu will get the first At large bid just as they did above, but now that Serra is in the pool to be judged and Nade is not, then Serra's 5-5 record ( basing this on them =beating Loyola this week) will give them the next at-large bid over all teams not 5-5. If MV is in the pool with Servite, MV gets the next At Large bid and Servite is left out of the playoffs.

If Alemany somehow beats BA this week, then Serra is going to be an At Large team also. If Nade beats ND also, then there will have to be a coin flip for 2nd and 3rd. If Nade does not get 2nd or 3rd, then they will be the first team in the pool as an At-large team. This will put Serra out of the playoffs same as above.

Olu would get the bid with a 5-5 record and a higher SoS higher.
Even though Serra may have a overall 5-5 record, they are still behind Chaminade (3-7 or 4-6) in league standings if it comes to head to head placement.
Mission Viejo has the next best SoS between them Nade and Servite. Also a common opponent point over Servite

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by dntn31 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:05 am

2002tony wrote: There is a good chance Serra is not going to be the 3rd place team out of the Mission but rather an at-large team. There may have to be a coin flip on who is 3rd place since Serra lost to Chaminade. Serra beat Alemany but Almany beat Chaminade and they all may end up with a 2-3 record in league.

If Alemany wins that flip and is named as the 3rd place team then I think Chaminade goes into the pool for at-large bids first and Serra will not make the playoffs.
I'm not entirely sure how it works, as it may differ from league to league, but it might be possible for the Mission league to name two 3rd place teams as the result of coin flips so that both 3rd place teams can go into the playoffs in different divisions. My understanding is that the leagues abide by their own discretion/by-laws to determine their rankings. So if Alemany, Serra and Chaminade all finish 2-3 in league it may be possible. assuming that the league rules allow for it, for the coin flips to only determine a 5th place team. As long as that team isn't Alemany, it's conceivable that you could see one of Chaminade/Serra and Alemany make into the playoffs each as a 3rd place Mission league representative for D1 and D2 respectively.

Also, irrespective of the Mission league outcomes, assuming Serra beats Loyola and SJB beats Servite (which both seem highly likely), then Serra will get into the playoffs no matter what since they will be at 5-5. All 5-5 teams will be selected for an At-Large before any teams under .500 are considered. The tiebreaker criteria only come into play when you are evaluating teams with equal records. So assuming Serra finishes 5-5 Serra would be selected over Servite and Santa Margirta in every conceivable scenario by virtue of Serra's 5-5 record.
2002tony wrote: a league can only have one team at a time in the pool to be judged for an at-large bid
If you're basing your various scenarios where Serra is being left out on the above assertion, I don't think that's actually a rule that is articulated anywhere. The first line item of the At-Large criteria as stated by the CIFSS is that all .500 teams will be placed before any teams below .500:
At Large teams must have a .500 record or better for their complete schedules to be considered.
In the sport of football, in order to alleviate byes, if there are no .500 teams entered or all .500 or better teams have been taken, then the next best record as submitted by leagues will be taken.
However, no team under .500 will be placed until all .500 at-large entries have been placed.

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by MDDad » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:36 am

It's funny how it's almost always the Mission League every year that mucks up the D-1 playoff picture.

In the most likely scenario, three teams will tie for third in the Mission League:
Alemany, 6-4
Serra, 5-5
Chaminade, 4-6

Because Alemany is in Division 2, they will go into their playoffs as the Mission #3 for D-2.

That leaves Chaminade as the Mission #3 team in D-1 because they beat Serra head-to-head.
#3 Chaminade, 4-6
#4 Serra, 5-5

Chaminade should get a D-1 auto bid for finishing as the Mission #3 in D-1. Serra should go against Orange Lutheran for the first at-large spot...and lose. And then Serra should get the second at-large spot over Servite because they will have a .500 record and Servite likely won't.

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by FriarJoe » Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:46 pm

Not that it matters much because all of these teams battling for the last couple of spots will be getting slaughtered, but Servite screwed itself by not being able to find a cupcake to play a 10th game to get them to 5-5. Not sure how that happens knowing you need 5 wins to get in the playoffs.

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by Professor Fate » Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:53 pm

Yeah, I had the same thought(s). Also, not showing up for the Villa Park game killed us. But, like you say the odds are we would get clobbered by Centennial or whoever they would match us up with. We probably have won twice as many games as most people expected this year, but we aren't ready to take on any Div 1 champions.
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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by Omar Bongo » Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:02 am

Servite screwed itself by not being able to find a cupcake to play a 10th game to get them to 5-5

Likely the AD or whoever filled the schedule saw Villa Park and thought "Mmmm, Hostess"
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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by 2002tony » Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:50 am

dntn31 wrote:I'm not entirely sure how it works, as it may differ from league to league, but it might be possible for the Mission league to name two 3rd place teams as the result of coin flips so that both 3rd place teams can go into the playoffs in different divisions. My understanding is that the leagues abide by their own discretion/by-laws to determine their rankings. So if Alemany, Serra and Chaminade all finish 2-3 in league it may be possible. assuming that the league rules allow for it, for the coin flips to only determine a 5th place team. As long as that team isn't Alemany, it's conceivable that you could see one of Chaminade/Serra and Alemany make into the playoffs each as a 3rd place Mission league representative for D1 and D2 respectively.
A league may not exceed their auto bid allotments. So if a league gets 3 auto bids, and there is a league 1st and second place teams, and a three way tie for third, only one team can get the 3rd place auto bid. the other teams go into the at large process.
if two teams tie for first and they have 3 auto bids, then both teams can be given the 1st place label if they are in different divisions. If they are in the same Division then the league has to pick which team will be 1st and which team will be 2nd.
dntn31 wrote: Also, irrespective of the Mission league outcomes, assuming Serra beats Loyola and SJB beats Servite (which both seem highly likely), then Serra will get into the playoffs no matter what since they will be at 5-5. All 5-5 teams will be selected for an At-Large before any teams under .500 are considered. The tiebreaker criteria only come into play when you are evaluating teams with equal records. So assuming Serra finishes 5-5 Serra would be selected over Servite and Santa Margirta in every conceivable scenario by virtue of Serra's 5-5 record.
I tried to find the verbiage that use to be in here as a question answer part of the at large application but I didnt see it. In the application for submitting teams for the playoffs you have to list the order and in the at large application the same thing with the order in which teams place. a 5th place team can not be given an at large bid over a 4th place team from that league. (hence the order in which teams can get an at large bid from that league).
if Chaminade is at 4-6 and is the 4th place team and Serra is at 5-5 and the 5th place team, Serra cant get an at large bid until the 4th place team does. That has happen before is why I pointed it out.

I know it says all teams with a 5-5 record but what is missing from that statement is the order in which teams place in league and are submitted.
The order in which teams are considered on the application comes first. That keeps a team from cherry picking their first 5 games and then loses all 5 games in league and is in 6th place but gets into the playoffs because they are 5-5 record and the 4th and 5th place teams dont get in because they had a 4-6 record. League placement comes first. That also means if Chaminade does not get an at large bid over another team from a different league, then neither does Serra.
dntn31 wrote: If you're basing your various scenarios where Serra is being left out on the above assertion, I don't think that's actually a rule that is articulated anywhere. The first line item of the At-Large criteria as stated by the CIFSS is that all .500 teams will be placed before any teams below .500:

I agree, I quickly looked and that is what it says, but as I said above, there is an order to which teams can be put into the pool. That part about "all teams with a 5-5 record" I think assumes that ALL teams "in the pool" to be judged, because Serra is not in the pool to be judged until 4-6 chaminade gets a bid and gets out of the pool.
As i said above that question about the order of who can get the first at large bid from a league use to be in here or it is on the application paperwork.
In the past that is how it worked.

Note:
This type of thing about the order and not being in the pool to be judged has happen with a 8-2 team that did not get an at large bid over two teams that were 6-3-1 and 7-3. The Serra league (now called Mission) use to have just 5 teams in it and only 2 auto bids. So the 3rd ,4th and 5th place teams all went into the pool for the at large bids.

8-2 Crespi team that only lost 2 league games that put them in 4th place. They did not get an at-large bid over two other teams - one was 6-3-1 ( BA the 3rd place team in the Serra league) and a 7-3 Tesoro team that beat out the 3rd place BA team for the first at large bid. There was only 2 at large bids to be given out. Crespi was never in the pool until BA got out and when BA got the last one, that was it.

That is where I based this opinion from.

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by 2002tony » Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:36 am

MDDad wrote:It's funny how it's almost always the Mission League every year that mucks up the D-1 playoff picture.

In the most likely scenario, three teams will tie for third in the Mission League:
Alemany, 6-4
Serra, 5-5
Chaminade, 4-6

Because Alemany is in Division 2, they will go into their playoffs as the Mission #3 for D-2.

That leaves Chaminade as the Mission #3 team in D-1 because they beat Serra head-to-head.
#3 Chaminade, 4-6
#4 Serra, 5-5

Chaminade should get a D-1 auto bid for finishing as the Mission #3 in D-1. Serra should go against Orange Lutheran for the first at-large spot...and lose. And then Serra should get the second at-large spot over Servite because they will have a .500 record and Servite likely won't.
MDDad, I think you may want to re read the note on teams that end in a tie.
A league can not get more auto bids then it has. The Mission league only gets 3 auto bids. If there is a 3 way tie for 3rd, only one of them can get the auto qualifier. The other two teams will be in the at-large pool no matter what division.
I read the playoff note to say only if there are enougth auto bids available for the two teams that tie ( league champions it said) then both teams could go into their own divisions as a league number 1 but also went on to say that no league could get more auto bids then it was allotted.
Did I miss something there?

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Re: Playoff Bracket Guesses

Post by SERVITE888 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:56 pm

Is Servite out of playoff contention?

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