Wow -interesting prep football ranking

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Playthegame
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Playthegame » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:09 pm

No team deserves the Nation number one more than MD. This year coaches and players did a remarkable job, personal opinions aside. From the stand point of Football, brilliant season. IMHO this years accomplishments exceeded last year given talent, adversity, and injuries.

Now even more, can't wait for next season...we have purpose...

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by MDDad » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:35 pm

Joefutbol, one more point. If the tiny community of Allen TX can come up with $60 million dollars to build this for their local high school, I have to believe they could come up with $50,000 to fly their team to play tougher opponents.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by joefutbol » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:44 pm

MDDad wrote: I agree. But that's no reason to ignore the strength of a league when ranking teams.
I agree. But I don't think a team should be penalized because they aren't in a tough league or don't have enough money to fly out and play IMG Academy. That's when the computer bias shows and the human element is important. In situations like De La Salle in its first 19 years under Lad, for instance, was it fair they shared the national title with Mater Dei in 1994? The computer would say no.
MDDad wrote: I agree. And in this comparison, Mater Dei has never traveled across the country...to beef up their strength of schedule or for any other reason.
No, but teams like Bosco, De La Salle, Edison, Servite, and a host of others have. I'm not singling out Mater Dei.
MDDad wrote: It's not elitist to suggest that the quality of teams a school plays should play a large role in where they are ranked relative to each other. Otherwise, undefeated North Dakota State should probably be ranked above two-loss Georgia.
Apples to oranges. Again, that's why those are human rankings. More than one computer poll has Fresno State ranked ahead of LSU and Mississippi State right now. It works both ways.

As far as I know, none of those teams in Texas traveled or played out-of-state opponents. When Mater Dei beats a DLS (or Bishop Gorman) team that came from a region where they absolutely trounced everyone, I'm assuming the Monarch's rating gets an extra bump because of the huge margins of victory De La Salle compiles against the James Logans and Antiochs up north. Of course, it makes it harder to judge how good the teams in Texas are, but it is what it is. Computers are far from perfect, and there are valid arguments on both sides.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by joefutbol » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:48 pm

MDDad wrote: Joefutbol, one more point. If the tiny community of Allen TX can come up with $60 million dollars to build this for their local high school, I have to believe they could come up with $50,000 to fly their team to play tougher opponents.
Sure, maybe Allen. But teams like Trinity don't have two nickels to rub together. That's why DLS flew out there in 2015 and not the other way around. The Spartans lost the game and went on to a ranking of #1 in CA and #1 in the nation in the computer poll. Trinity got bounced in the first round of the 6A playoffs.

cruiser
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by cruiser » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:59 pm

You can go back ond forth on the topic,bottom line - four out of the five major national prep FB
polls currently have MD as #1; and again if it happens to stay that way, I'd take it any day.

BTW, USAtoday at least moved MD up to national#2 in their latest poll today, hmm...

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Playthegame » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:16 pm

I would like to see MD play any Texas team in that facility. Also would be cool to hold the 1 vs. 2 sponsored by USA Today and or any major sponsor...6o million dollar stadium deserves a 60 million dollar game...

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by joefutbol » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:23 pm

Except I thought there was a major crack in the foundation or something like that and they have to rebuild it.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Omar Bongo » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:05 pm

I'm assuming the Monarch's rating gets an extra bump because of the huge margins of victory De La Salle compiles against the James Logans and Antiochs up north

Instead of assuming, you might want to educate yourself as to how much thought is put into trying to make the computer comparisons as fair as possible:

"Single game performance rating adjusted to 15 points above or below (depending upon win/loss) the rating of the opponent instead of using the true margin of victory. This is done in order to properly credit the win itself as being the most important thing-- short of doing that, a 1-point win would nearly be equal to a 1-point loss, and of course it is not. The actual number used for this, again currently 15, may fluctuate over time as it is derived by analyzing the margin of victory of every game played nationally and taking the 40th percentile of all those margins. (Capped at 15 to avoid early-season small sample size anomalies.)

**Single game performance rating may have been adjusted to 30 points above or below (depending upon win/loss) the rating of the opponent instead of using the true margin of victory. This is done so as to not reward teams for scheduling/running up the score against vastly inferior opponents. The actual number used for this, again currently 30, also may fluctuate over time as it is derived by analyzing the margin of victory of every game played nationally and taking the 63rd percentile of all those margins.


Please note that double-asterisked (and grayed out) games are considered to be less "true results" when ratings are created by the system because the margin of victory needed to be artificially decreased for the reasons mentioned above. As such, performances without the double-asterisk (truer results) are weighted much more heavily by the system in order to create the season rating for each team than are results involving mismatched teams. In other words, in cases where it appears a team is taking a hit to their rating simply because they played a very weak team...the hit indeed exists (and it's important that it does because we strongly believe in strength of schedule) but it is not as large as it appears at first glance. The rating for a team generally just ends up being roughly the average of those non-grayed out games."


I'll take that over some guys jawing around a table...

http://calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2018/trend. ... a_Ana,_CA)
Last edited by Omar Bongo on Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by MDDad » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:07 pm

joefutbol wrote:I agree. But I don't think a team should be penalized because they aren't in a tough league or don't have enough money to fly out and play IMG Academy.
They shouldn't be penalized for playing in a weak league and not traveling to play top teams, but they also shouldn't be rewarded for those shortcomings with a national championship.
No, but teams like Bosco, De La Salle, Edison, Servite, and a host of others have. I'm not singling out Mater Dei.

But Bosco, De La Salle, Edison and Servite aren't part of this discussion, so what do their trips matter?
As far as I know, none of those teams in Texas traveled or played out-of-state opponents.
And why is that? Tens of millions in community dollars for a high school stadium, but not thousands for a trip?
When Mater Dei beats a DLS (or Bishop Gorman) team that came from a region where they absolutely trounced everyone, I'm assuming the Monarch's rating gets an extra bump because of the huge margins of victory De La Salle compiles against the James Logans and Antiochs up north.
I suppose. And James Logan and Antioch are probably pretty similar to many of the teams Allen plays.
But teams like Trinity don't have two nickels to rub together.
That's sad, but Trinity's financial state is not relevant to this discussion.

We can only judge football teams by whom they beat and how good those teams are. Using those criteria, I don't see how Allen qualifies for a national title. In fact, we could make a case for probably a half dozen teams more deserving than Allen.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Omar Bongo » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:19 pm

Actually, 26 teams according to the computer ratings :2cents:
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Ramon » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:45 pm

Based on Strength of Schedule & results Mater Dei should be the National Champion even if Allen runs the table.,.Just look at all the Top 25 teams beat on the way to D1 & California State Bowl Championships.
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by joefutbol » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:04 pm

Using the computer polls there's a good chance De La Salle never wins a national championship. I disagree with that. That's all.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by cruiser » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:24 pm

joefutbol wrote:Except I thought there was a major crack in the foundation or something like that and they have to rebuild it.

I read that a while back also, can you imagine after all that money spent, there has to be some heads that rolled on that one - I don't know if Allen has played in the stadium this year or not...

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Omar Bongo » Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:54 pm

In order to be the best you've got to play the best...

I doubt any other HS football team in history has faced let alone beaten the murderer's row the Monarchs did this season
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by eskimow » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:46 pm

MD vs Allen
Bosco vs Allen
IMG vs Allen

You have to bet your months paycheck on the winner of each. If you know how to break down film and evaluate position by position, its not even close.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by eskimow » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:01 pm

and Allen has to play all of them in the same season

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by joefutbol » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:14 pm

eskimow wrote: You have to bet your months paycheck on the winner of each. If you know how to break down film and evaluate position by position, its not even close.
I take it you've seen some Allen film. What did you see that formed your opinion?

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by eskimow » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:26 pm

Watched Film and saw them live.
Oline and DBs not even close.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by jb914 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:26 pm

eskimow wrote:and Allen has to play all of them in the same season
I think I'll hold off until the Texas playoffs are done. I'm not sure it's a lock Allen wins out. Just like it wasn't a lock for MD/Bosco.

But, before I'd risk $$ you would have to let us know:

What part of the season do they play? Beginning? Middle? before league play starts?
Where do they play? Texas in August/Sept is an advantage to the Texas team. Just ask DLS.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by joefutbol » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:35 pm

I'd bet money Allen doesn't win out.

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