Wow -interesting prep football ranking

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eskimow
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by eskimow » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:37 pm

Play Mid season, when teams have had a chance to gel. ( DLS always best at the end of season, it takes DLS kids longer to master the execution and the blocking techniques of the veer).

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by MDDad » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:03 pm

Omar Bongo wrote:I'm assuming the Monarch's rating gets an extra bump because of the huge margins of victory De La Salle compiles against the James Logans and Antiochs up north

Instead of assuming, you might want to educate yourself as to how much thought is put into trying to make the computer comparisons as fair as possible:

"Single game performance rating adjusted to 15 points above or below (depending upon win/loss) the rating of the opponent instead of using the true margin of victory. This is done in order to properly credit the win itself as being the most important thing-- short of doing that, a 1-point win would nearly be equal to a 1-point loss, and of course it is not. The actual number used for this, again currently 15, may fluctuate over time as it is derived by analyzing the margin of victory of every game played nationally and taking the 40th percentile of all those margins. (Capped at 15 to avoid early-season small sample size anomalies.)

**Single game performance rating may have been adjusted to 30 points above or below (depending upon win/loss) the rating of the opponent instead of using the true margin of victory. This is done so as to not reward teams for scheduling/running up the score against vastly inferior opponents. The actual number used for this, again currently 30, also may fluctuate over time as it is derived by analyzing the margin of victory of every game played nationally and taking the 63rd percentile of all those margins.


Please note that double-asterisked (and grayed out) games are considered to be less "true results" when ratings are created by the system because the margin of victory needed to be artificially decreased for the reasons mentioned above. As such, performances without the double-asterisk (truer results) are weighted much more heavily by the system in order to create the season rating for each team than are results involving mismatched teams. In other words, in cases where it appears a team is taking a hit to their rating simply because they played a very weak team...the hit indeed exists (and it's important that it does because we strongly believe in strength of schedule) but it is not as large as it appears at first glance. The rating for a team generally just ends up being roughly the average of those non-grayed out games."


I'll take that over some guys jawing around a table...

http://calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2018/trend. ... a_Ana,_CA)
While long, that post makes a good point. For computer-based rating algorithms to withstand the test of time, they have to be fairly sophisticated and accurate over the long term. Guys like Ned Freeman (high school football), Jeff Sagarin (multiple sports) and Bill James (baseball) have proven track records that evidence the thought and fine tuning they've put into their models. I'd take them every time over guys like USAToday voters who readily admit they've never seen most of the teams they rank.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by dont be that guy » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:14 pm

Omar Bongo wrote:In order to be the best you've got to play the best...

I doubt any other HS football team in history has faced let alone beaten the murderer's row the Monarchs did this season
No doubt, but MD didn't win their league, they got trounced in a league game, and forfeited a game. So maybe there is some doubt.

If we are talking hypotheticals (like a National Championship) it could be argued that Bosco has a claim for #1. After all, they are 1-1 against MD on the season and the point differential in those games was significant.

I'm still not convinced that MD would win a 3rd game against Bosco, but it would have been more interesting than watching DLS fumble all over the field.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Omar Bongo » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:05 am

You didn't refute anything I said, so I guess you agree with it.

And you're right, they didn't win their league. But they did win the CIF Championship and the State Championship...how is this possible?

And yes, the 12-0, #6 team in the nation team lost 3 fumbles, so you're trying to say what, exactly...they stink?

I think one could make a case for 3 teams as National Champs: MD, Bosco and IMG. But MD has the best resume by far.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by dont be that guy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:19 am

I know that you’ll find this hard to believe but I do agree with you. Toughest schedule I’ve ever seen.

But amongst all the MD backslapping and complaining of officiating (in a game MD won?) I wanted to point out that voters across the country will see a team that lost 2 games (one by forfeit and another in a rout) and didn’t win their league. Yes, they had a great playoff run but they weren’t the best team in their own league?

Don’t be surprised if a 16-0 team from Texas gets a few votes. They beat every team in front of them, the Monarchs did not.

Again, it’s all hypothetical. Anything could happen.

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by MDDad » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:18 am

But amongst all the MD backslapping and complaining of officiating (in a game MD won?) I wanted to point out that voters across the country will see a team that lost 2 games (one by forfeit and another in a rout) and didn’t win their league.
And that's part of the problem -- voters across the country see a team's record and often not much else, and that's a weak and lazy basis for ranking teams. And let's remember that forfeit for using a kid on six extra point kicks was a game Mater Dei won by four touchdowns on the field.

They beat every team in front of them, the Monarchs did not.

Eisenhower and South Hills were also 14-0 going into their last game. They beat every team put in front of them. Should they have been in the running for a national championship as well?

I think the responsibility of poll voters is to decide who is the best team in the country. If they do that based strictly on won-loss record rather than actually watching a team play, or looking at their body of work and whom they beat, then they are undeserving of that vote.

cruiser
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by cruiser » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:27 am

Well, at the end of the day, MD only has to finish number #1, in only ONE of the five major national
prep FB polls to a a mystical national champion, as of now FOUR out of FIVE,rank MD as national
number #1. Hmm - four out of five and the other lone poll has them as national #2, gee, do we
all see where this might be going...

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Playthegame » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:24 am

Cruiser you keep using the term mystical which could apply to the rankings system, mythical is more suited to the title IMO as there is no National play off series...

Make sense?

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by MDDad » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:30 am

Cruiser, there are actually seven polls that go into determining a consensus #1:

Massey - Mater Dei
Calpreps/Maxpreps Computer (they both use Ned Freeman's rankings) - Mater Dei
Maxpreps Human - Mater Dei
HighSchoolFootballAmerica - Mater Dei
PrepForce - Mater Dei
PrepNation - Mater Dei
USAToday - Allen

cruiser
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by cruiser » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:08 am

Ok. 6 out of 7!

Playthegame
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Playthegame » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:27 am

It should be noted that the games played late in the season should carry the most weight as execution and scheme implementation are most developed, also injuries etc come into play so that depth and over all the components of a season are taken into account. You have to make it to the dance. Football is often a game of inches so all the games should count and what is more valuable a league title or a division title?

USA Today is the least credible of all the polls and has shown an anti Cali bias since it's inception...

eskimow
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by eskimow » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:55 am

Would Allen have won their league if they had to Play MD and Bosco? MD lost to the #1 team in the nation then avenged that loss in a CHAMPIONSHIP GAME! This should give the Championship win more weight than a mid season win.

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jb914
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by jb914 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:03 pm

Playthegame wrote: USA Today is the least credible of all the polls and has shown an anti Cali bias since it's inception...
yea USAToday is like the 5th dentist that doesn't recommend Trident :lol:

The Monarch's won section and state. If MD gets the nod in all the polls or the majority that's what the Cajuns call lagniappe, a bonus

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by RPW » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:21 pm

eskimow wrote: Would Allen have won their league if they had to Play MD and Bosco? MD lost to the #1 team in the nation then avenged that loss in a CHAMPIONSHIP GAME! This should give the Championship win more weight than a mid season win.
Should the use of all caps be weighed more?
I am The Voice of Reason

cruiser
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by cruiser » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:41 pm

jb914 wrote:yea USAToday is like the 5th dentist that doesn't recommend Trident :lol:

The Monarch's won section and state. If MD gets the nod in all the polls or the majority that's what the Cajuns call lagniappe, a bonus

Actually USAToday is very reputable HSFB polling system, been around a while, though those
that do the rankings over the years have turned over and the way they go about it - I'm sure
has deviated possibly from previous processes - it is what it is...

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jb914
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by jb914 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:51 pm

by cruiser » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:41 pm
Actually USAToday is very reputable HSFB polling system, been around a while, though those
that do the rankings over the years have turned over and the way they go about it - I'm sure
has deviated possibly from previous processes - it is what it is...
how does USAT differ? are they "polling" coaches?

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Omar Bongo » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:44 pm

RPW wrote:Should the use of all caps be weighed more?
Yes, RPW!
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Omar Bongo
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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by Omar Bongo » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:53 pm

Actually USAToday is very reputable HSFB polling system

Just to give you an idea of how they scrupulously they pay attention to detail, in their game story they said "Mater Dei senior running back Shakobe Parker ran for three TDs" :lol:

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by cruiser » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:05 pm

Yeah, interesting...

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Re: Wow -interesting prep football ranking

Post by FatherSonHolyHldbcks » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:56 am

jb914 wrote: The Monarch's won section and state. If MD gets the nod in all the polls or the majority that's what the Cajuns call lagniappe, a bonus
Louisiana Lagniappe ... best restaurant in Baton Rouge.

USAT has been trolling private schools all year, even turning Sondheimer Trinity Lg transfer tweets into feature articles!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/usatodayhs ... r-boom/amp

There is no way they were going to crown this MD team the Super 25 champ if they had any other option. An undefeated Texas public school state champ like Allen would be USAT’s 2018 wet dream.

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