CAPLAY2020

User avatar
jb914
Posts: 759
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:57 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 10 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

maybe work on reading the thread, coach. i've already said what I think above.
joefutbol
Posts: 5416
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:28 am
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by joefutbol »

Cool. Point me to where you said what you thought about why the Imperial College model was wrong and I'll reread that part.
User avatar
jb914
Posts: 759
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:57 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 10 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

I said Imperial College model was sh*t code. Because it's is. it predicted 2 million deaths in the US. I'd say that's a little off. :lol:

Here is a lengthy discussion you can read while you find your tally sheet.

https://analyticsindiamag.com/the-most- ... criticism/

Also, this engineer has done extensive analysis of the models, etc. if you are interested.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPn4Fs ... A/featured
User avatar
Omar Bongo
Posts: 9812
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:59 pm
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 11 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

joefutbol wrote: The projection I linked that you refuse to reference was the projection using Farr's Law. And that projection showed a peak infection in early May with the virus all but gone by June 10th. So what does that tell you?
I know what it tells me, and it also tells us why he's done all he can to avoid answering your question
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump
User avatar
jb914
Posts: 759
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:57 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 10 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

what do you want me to answer Omar? Why the projection Joefutbol linked was wrong? It was wrong because it was a flawed model that incorrectly predicted the outcome. happy now? :lol:

we now have the same amount of people hospitalized in OC that we did in early April. I know what that tells me Omar.

maybe you and coach Joefutbol can watch the videos i've linked to and learn something.
User avatar
Omar Bongo
Posts: 9812
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:59 pm
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 11 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

Earlier, you said:

"Orange County and all of California peaked cases in July and deaths in August...overall trends are down and have been for the past 90 days."

I'll stick with documented facts such as this which I posted and linked to on page 1 of this thread:

"...the United States has reported its second-highest day of new Covid-19 cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University...Saturday Oct. 20 saw 83,718 new cases, just 39 cases shy of the all-time record that was reported Friday."
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump
User avatar
jb914
Posts: 759
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:57 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 10 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

Here you go Omar.

usp=sharingOrange County / California declining cases/deaths.

But, you are correct. I did call him Dr. Spock, so, you got me there. :lol:
User avatar
watchersince68
Posts: 1613
Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2012 10:56 am
Been thanked: 8 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by watchersince68 »

I have quickly looked at all the posts, I may have missed it. Did anyone bring up the fact the election is just days away and it may one groups last ditch effort to sway the voters? I have been a long disbeliever in the "numbers".
User avatar
jb914
Posts: 759
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:57 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 10 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

My biggest problem with the "numbers" is the "testing" does not apply a threshold to only count symptomatic patients that have enough virus to spread/infect others. it counts people who have recovered or had immunity already, but, still have remnants of the virus in there system which will trigger a positive test.

Also, it appears cases are not always counted towards the day of testing, but, the day they input them into the database. Same with the deaths. This will skew the graph forward and does not accurately represent the real picture.

I say that because it appears the virus and dying of it take weekends off based on the graphs for OC. :lol:
joefutbol
Posts: 5416
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:28 am
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by joefutbol »

jb914 wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:18 am maybe you and coach Joefutbol can watch the videos i've linked to and learn something.
I deleted my last post last night and decided to just let it go, but I've changed my mind. You're clearly full of sh*t.

The first sign was your politically-motivated rant that was laced with bad information, half-truths, and full lies. Yeah, jb914, you have all the answers and all the correct information, and everyone else has bad information and wrong answers. Right.

The second and most obvious sign that you're full of sh*t was this gem --
jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:43 pm The Imperial college model was sh*tcode.
And there it is... the enormous flashing neon sign that screams "I have no idea what I'm talking about and I'm regurgitating the lies I heard from Fox News and friends!" There's a reason I asked you specifically about the model you referenced. Out of the dozens of good reasons you could give me about why the model was bad, you chose the only "reason" that isn't a reason at all.
jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:38 pm it predicted 2 million deaths in the US. I'd say that's a little off. :lol:
As you said, reading is important.



The model was predicting what would happen if we did nothing at all... no lockdowns, no masks, no distancing... nothing. Since we clearly did all of those things, nobody in their right mind would expect the model to be accurate. So you're either acting nefariously and are intentionally perpetuating bullsh*t lies that are politically and/or profit motivated, or you're just ignorant and don't know anything about the model to begin with and are unintentionally perpetuating bullsh*t lies that are politically and/or profit motivated. Considering you ignored the question so many times and used links to give me "your opinion," I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say it's the latter.

And that's another reason I know you're full of sh*t. I asked your opinion and you told me to google or click the links and go learn about it myself. That's exactly the type of thinking you're railing against, and it's obvious you haven't done the reading or research yourself to give an informed opinion that won't expose that fact. Congratulations, you're ignorant and hypocritical at the same time.

As for Farr's Law, it's amazing for looking at the past and accurately determining when a peak rate of infections occurred. But as I showed you and you've now admitted, Farr's Law predicted on April 10th that the United States would be free of COVID by June 10th. It's great that you want to look at the past, but I'll stick with the eggheads and their models that are far more accurate than Farr's Law at predicting the future... you know, the time that matters. What do you think you would have said using Farr's Law after the first wave of the Spanish Flu? How about the second? Think about that.

And as far as your buddy Ivor, I watched some of his clips. He makes some good arguments, and he also cherry-picks information and makes speculative assumptions with nothing to back them up. You know... the things you're complaining about. Don't let that stop you from eating every word out of his ass with a spoon, though... after all, you two share the same opinion.


“Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one.”

― Voltaire
User avatar
jb914
Posts: 759
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:57 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 10 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

Hey Coach joefutbol, did you find that tally sheet yet?
User avatar
jb914
Posts: 759
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:57 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 10 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

joefutbol wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:47 pm The second and most obvious sign that you're full of sh*t was this gem --
jb914 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:43 pm
The Imperial college model was sh*tcode.
And there it is... the enormous flashing neon sign that screams "I have no idea what I'm talking about and I'm regurgitating the lies I heard from Fox News and friends!" There's a reason I asked you specifically about the model you referenced. Out of the dozens of good reasons you could give me about why the model was bad, you chose the only "reason" that isn't a reason at all.
I didn't think it was a good use of my time to regurgitate something that anyone could find with a google search in the first link.


Just use this above for any of your other rant points that reference the Imperial college model.

"Indeed, Ferguson’s Imperial College model has been proven wildly inaccurate. To cite just one example, it saw Sweden paying a huge price for no lockdown, with 40,000 COVID deaths by May 1, and 100,000 by June. Sweden now has 2,854 deaths and peaked two weeks ago. As Fraser Nelson, editor of Britain’s Spectator, notes: “Imperial College’s model is wrong by an order of magnitude.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/p ... -disgrace/

You said "As for Farr's Law, it's amazing for looking at the past and accurately determining when a peak rate of infections occurred. But as I showed you and you've now admitted, Farr's Law predicted on April 10th that the United States would be free of COVID by June 10th."

Again, that was a model that claims to be based on Farr's law. How can it be based on Farr's law when we are at the beginning of the outbreak? It can't without supplying "estimated". I don't think Farr input those into the computer.

As far as the links "He makes some good arguments, and he also cherry-picks information and makes speculative assumptions with nothing to back them up."

he's presenting what has actually happened. You would know that if you were paying attention.

Good luck finding the tally sheet. BTW, what language do you code in? Asking for a friend. :lol:
joefutbol
Posts: 5416
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:28 am
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by joefutbol »

jb914 wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:49 pm "Indeed, Ferguson’s Imperial College model has been proven wildly inaccurate. To cite just one example, it saw Sweden paying a huge price for no lockdown, with 40,000 COVID deaths by May 1, and 100,000 by June. Sweden now has 2,854 deaths and peaked two weeks ago. As Fraser Nelson, editor of Britain’s Spectator, notes: “Imperial College’s model is wrong by an order of magnitude.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/p ... -disgrace/
Whoops.

jb914 wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:49 pm Again, that was a model that claims to be based on Farr's law. How can it be based on Farr's law when we are at the beginning of the outbreak? It can't without supplying "estimated". I don't think Farr input those into the computer.
Uh, because it's a model base on ONE equation using exactly TWO inputs.

Read the study and you'll find out. We know how much you love to read. :lol:

But the mere fact that you're asking that question tells us all we need to know.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7498003/
jb914 wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:49 pm he's presenting what has actually happened. You would know that if you were paying attention.
He has dozens of videos and you couldn't possibly know what I was referencing. But don't let that stop you from being wrong... we wouldn't want to break the streak.
jb914 wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:49 pm BTW, what language do you code in?
English. But I know another guy who's fluent in retard if you need anything translated.
ventura
Posts: 460
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 6:16 pm
Has thanked: 4 times
Been thanked: 26 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by ventura »

all this sh*t is above my pay grade, but evidently there's no love lost between Joe and JB

assuming this goes back a while?

yikes
joefutbol
Posts: 5416
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:28 am
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by joefutbol »

It goes back to jb telling me I was wrong for thinking Kyler Murray was the best high school QB I've ever seen... you know... the #1 draft pick who won the Heisman and is commanding the #2 offense in all of football. He said Re-Al Mitchell was better. So this dude really knows his stuff.
Playthegame
Posts: 4541
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 5:23 pm
Has thanked: 2 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Playthegame »

MD/Servite thing...If I was to grade the Debate...91 to 9...Joe wins...here is your chance JB you got to bring your A game...Joe's good...just sayin...Watch some Ben Shapiro and Dinesh D'souza YouTube video's, and take another swing. If you have a good night, you might get 2 or three undecided dudes...but you got to get a lot better fast...

Proverbs 27:6
ventura
Posts: 460
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 6:16 pm
Has thanked: 4 times
Been thanked: 26 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by ventura »

"MD/Servite thing"

playthegame - that explains it all - I thought they were getting too heated on this whole worldwide pandemic issue, but now I know it runs a lot deeper than that :lol: :lol: :lol:
Playthegame
Posts: 4541
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 5:23 pm
Has thanked: 2 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Playthegame »

Much...
User avatar
Omar Bongo
Posts: 9812
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:59 pm
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 11 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

"MD/Servite thing"

Happens every time...when the going gets tough the mentally challenged take the easy way out
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump
Playthegame
Posts: 4541
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 5:23 pm
Has thanked: 2 times

Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Playthegame »

I''m your Huckleberry...where'd you go...hidden?
Post Reply