CAPLAY2020

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frankieboy
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by frankieboy »

the number that matters is deaths per 1000, not total numbers of cases. 99+ percent of patients recover-unless you are over 70 or have preexisting comorbidities (diabetes, heart issues, etc).

Lockdowns, etc that were the right thing to do in April are not the right thing now given the data we have available.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by frankieboy »

also have better treatment options that reduce death rates than we had in April.
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Omar Bongo
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

Playthegame wrote:34,200 deaths from influenza
By the time winter's over that will come to less than 10% of Covid deaths...was that your point?

Playthegame wrote:Heart disease
WTF? What about car accidents, suicides, people backing off cliffs while taking photos, ...
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

frankieboy wrote:the number that matters is deaths per 1000, not total numbers of cases. 99+ percent of patients recover-unless you are over 70 or have preexisting comorbidities (diabetes, heart issues, etc).
Total number of cases will definitely matter if people stop being careful - if everyone in the US gets it, even that small percentage you cite will result in over 3 million deaths
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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by Omar Bongo »
Off Topic
Total number of cases will definitely matter if people stop being careful - if everyone in the US gets it, even that small percentage you cite will result in over 3 million deaths
based on what? Omar's theorem? You should apply to the Imperial College they would love you to become part of the team. :lol:

how much more careful do we need to be?
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Playthegame »

Omar Bongo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:36 pm Playthegame wrote:
34,200 deaths from influenza
By the time winter's over that will come to less than 10% of Covid deaths...was that your point?
No.
Omar Bongo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:36 pm Playthegame wrote:
Heart disease
WTF? What about car accidents, suicides, people backing off cliffs while taking photos,
Lock down more destructive than the virus...Heart disease is a co-morbidity...if someone dies and they have heart disease and die in the hospital, and also tested positive for covid, on the death certificate they put CoD-covid because every hospital receives 38000 bucks if they treat someone who died of covid. 106,000 if they go on a ventilator.

35 million cases of the flu in the US annually...Old virus, stronger immunities and readily available treatments...Vs. 10-15 million Covid cases...(had to correct this)

Not as smart as you come off to yourself...and not much of a reader...by your own admission as soon as you see something you do not agree with...we know you Omar...
Last edited by Playthegame on Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Playthegame »

Omar Bongo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:40 pm Total number of cases will definitely matter if people stop being careful - if everyone in the US gets it, even that small percentage you cite will result in over 3 million deaths
11 Million people lost there jobs due to lock downs, if the whole country locks down, by your math that would be over a 100 million who can't feed their families, only a matter of time before people starve to death...by your reasoning...
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

jb914 wrote:based on what?
Did you read my entire response? How about if I change "will" to "may well"?
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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Playthegame wrote:Lock down more destructive than the virus
Poppycock. Are you a paid spokesman for the Virus Community? I ask because you proclaim to be a spokesman for this community:
Playthegame wrote:we know you Omar...
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

Playthegame wrote:11 Million people lost there jobs due to lock downs
And how many more will lose "there" jobs if tens of millions of employers, employees and consumers die or are incapacitated? LOTS more.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

Playthegame wrote:Heart disease:
Yeah, remember when the fast food industry whined about the injustice of millions of jobs lost and revenue plummeting because the AMA advised people to eat healthier foods? Me neither.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

Omar Bongo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:39 pm Did you read my entire response? How about if I change "will" to "may well"?
how did you calculate 3 million deaths
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by credofriar »

What over 500k deaths a year from heart disease???
We need to shut down all fast food, lock ourselves in a closet and only eat kale for the rest of our lives.
Panic people, panic, panic, panic
People are dying. Everybody in the closet......HIIIIDDDDEEEEE.
In all seriousness death is a terrible thing. I would do anything to be able to talk to my father just once (he died 5 years ago) but facts are over 2,800,000 people die every year in the United States. People acting like 200,000+ deaths is un-fathomable is playing a political game.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

jb914 wrote:how did you calculate 3 million deaths
It's a conservative estimate based on available data

To take just one example, according to Johns Hopkins the observed case-fatality ratio for Covid in the US is 2.6%

331 million x .026 = 8.6 million deaths

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

credofriar post wrote:We need to shut down all fast food, lock ourselves in a closet and only eat kale for the rest of our lives. Panic people, panic, panic, panic People are dying. Everybody in the closet......HIIIIDDDDEEEEE.
If you want people to take your opinions seriously you might want to consider a return to the plane of reality. Just a suggestion... :roll:
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

Omar Bongo wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:36 am It's a conservative estimate based on available data

Even though we *KNOW* The death rate varies from essentially zero for the very young to 30%+ for the 85+ (using orange county as a example) and we *KNOW* 100% of population won't get the virus. We *KNOW* there are many unreported cases due to the high rate of asymptomatic infection. Sure just multiply the total population x the IFR. Gee, that won't skew our estimate higher. :lol:

But, as i mentioned in an earlier post, do you want to fit the data to your narrative? (yea, i think you do!)

Or look at the data and dive deep to find out what does this tell us?

But, the latter requires a deep exploratory analysis not just take the totals and spit out a number and run with it. Which is exactly what you did. But, so did the Imperial College Model with the 2 million deaths that was *sold* to governments.

But, Imperial College did the same thing 20 years ago with the mad cow hysteria in UK, so, when they are consistently wrong, the model output is always a :fan: senario.

Imperial College estimates 2 million deaths

Omar: "Hold my beer..." 3 million
:lol:
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Playthegame »

Update from CDC
Of the 220,000 deaths reported as due to COVID, the actual cause was:
88,208 - pneumonia & influenza
17, 799 - chronic respiratory disease
26, 365 - respiratory distress synd.
44, 261 - hypertensive disease
23, 275 -heart disease
28, 000 -cardiac arrest

Open up now!
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Playthegame »

Omar Bongo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:42 pm Poppycock. Are you a paid spokesman for the Virus Community? I ask because you proclaim to be a spokesman for this community:
Lie
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

jb914 wrote:But, as i mentioned in an earlier post, do you want to fit the data to your narrative?
(I'll type this s-l-o-w-l-y so you'll get it...)

No, I'd like you to fit your narrative to reality
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

Omar Bongo wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:01 pm No, I'd like you to fit your narrative to reality
I posted the historical data, you pulled numbers out of your ass and puffed *huge* doomsday air into them
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