CAPLAY2020

joefutbol
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by joefutbol »

jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:02 am Farr's law states we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak of a pandemic. According to Farr, there is a 21-28 day lag for deaths from peak cases.

Orange County and all of California peaked cases in July and deaths in August. The egg heads don't want to admit that, cuz, if you spent a ---- ton of hours on an algorithm you are not going to admit that some guy in the 1800's did a better job than you did with all your wicked coding/research skillz. You CYA
As William Farr said, “the death rate is a fact; anything beyond this is an inference.”

There will only be one model that will accurately depict the impact of the virus. None of the new models made using "coding skills" (you mean math?) will be it. Neither will a model made using Farr's law.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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Farr's Law
Last edited by John Q. Public on Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: unexplained link removed
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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Farr's words... from his own mouth - "the death rate is a fact; anything beyond this is an inference."
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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Omar Bongo wrote:You really think cases of infection are dropping?
jb914 wrote:maybe you should read my post again slowly.
How slowly did you write this:
jb914 wrote:Orange County and all of California peaked cases in July
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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why don't you look at the chart Omar in the link above. It clearly shows a peak in July for the state and Orange County. We have been in a downward trend since then. But, that's just what the data says.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by Omar Bongo »

I was asking YOU what YOU think. So that's a "yes"?
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:30 pm why don't you look at the chart Omar in the link above
And why don't you look at this link - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/lw/2. ... 5.g005.jpg

These are "Predictions of new cases per country predicted by Farr’s law." Chart A is the outcome in the United States predicted by Farr's Law. What does the data show?
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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"Farr shows us that once peak infection has been reached then it will roughly follow the same symmetrical pattern on the downward slope. However, under testing and variations in testing regimes means we have no way of knowing when the peak of infections occurred.

In this situation, we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak. There is a predicted time lag from infection to COVID deaths of approximately 21 to 28 days."
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19- ... -pandemic/

the data shows that Orange County peaked cases back in July for cases. California as a whole is in July too.
hint: look at the graph on the right side in the confirmed cases tab

https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsd ... 51de2fedae

the data shows that Orange deaths peaked in August. look at the chart on the right in the deaths tab
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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Yeah, the chart I linked was a projection from a study beginning the same exact day as that link you just posted. Without looking I'd wager it's from the same study.

What point are you trying to make?
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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joefutbol wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:16 am There will only be one model that will accurately depict the impact of the virus. None of the new models made using "coding skills" (you mean math?) will be it. Neither will a model made using Farr's law.
How many models have you built with data, Joefutbol? Projections are what got us here Joe. The Imperial college model was sh*tcode.

We are on the downward slope of the epidemic that peaked in July in Orange County. That is not my "point" or my "opinion" that is what the actual known data shows.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:43 pm How many models have you built with data, Joefutbol?
I seem to have misplaced my tally sheet. But I've built enough to be knowledgeable and not enough to be an expert. How about you?
jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:43 pm Projections are what got us here Joe. The Imperial college model was sh*tcode.
Please tell me what was wrong with the model. Seriously. Please.
jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:43 pm We are on the downward slope of the epidemic that peaked in July in Orange County. That is not my "point" or my "opinion" that is what the actual known data shows.
You're talking about using observed data to estimate things in the past. Based on how many people died from time x to y we can conclude the peak number of infections occurred between time x and y. Those aren't projections. Projections are concerning things in the future. But I digress.

The projection I linked that you refuse to reference was the projection using Farr's Law. And that projection showed a peak infection in early May with the virus all but gone by June 10th. So what does that tell you?
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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Off Topic
I seem to have misplaced my tally sheet. But I've built enough to be knowledgeable and not enough to be an expert. How about you?
Yea, that's what I thought. stick to football.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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No answers. That's what I thought. :lol:
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Re: CAPLAY2020

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Joe did you play Donnie in the big lebowski?

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Re: CAPLAY2020

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jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:31 pm stick to football.
Stick to anything but football. Seriously. Anything. I'm sure there's a pingpong forum somewhere you can go share your expertise with.
jb914 wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:06 pm Kyler Murray doesn't have the arm strength and can't make the throws that JT Daniels, Josh Rosen or even DJ can make.
jb914 wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:06 pm Re-Al Mitchell is a much better QB than Kyler Murray.
jb914 wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:06 pm Kyler shoulda played baseball where he was a high draft pick for sure.
jb914 wrote: Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:47 am Kyler Murray is not 5' 10"
jb914 wrote: Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:10 pm In my opinion, Kyler Murray will not be an "elite QB" in the NFL. I don't think he will last as long as Manziel did. The good news is he can run for his life when the swiss cheese AZ line fails to protect him. The bad news is the NFL has big dudes that can run pretty fast too. At some point, one of those big dudes is gonna catch him and crush him like a beer can.
Rankings of Cardinals Offensive Units -
OL - 21st
RBs - 28th
TEs - 28th
WRs - 12th

They now are 5-2 and are 2nd in total offense.

Did you use Farr's Law in your projections?
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by joefutbol »

jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:40 pm Joe did you play Donnie in the big lebowski?
Did you play Arnie in What's Eating Gilbert Grape?

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Re: CAPLAY2020

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:lol: maybe that's why i'm just a fan and not a coach or a scout.

Just think you spent time searching a forum for that. Says a lot more about you Joe.

I'll say a prayer for you tonight. Remember, Jesus love you.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by joefutbol »

It took under 60 seconds.

If that says a lot about me what does this say about you?
jb914 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:31 pm Yea, that's what I thought. stick to football.
So what's wrong with the Imperial College model?
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by jb914 »

Off Topic
It took under 60 seconds.

If that says a lot about me what does this say about you?
jb914 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:31 pm
Yea, that's what I thought. stick to football.
it means you *seem* to know more about football than modeling/interpreting stats data. but, i don't know maybe your tally sheet is really huge and a modeling geek. But, your replies don't seem to support that.

The Imperial College model has been referred to as sh*tcode. Plenty of links out there on google for you to find it in less than 60 seconds, coach.
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Re: CAPLAY2020

Post by joefutbol »

I'm aware there are links. I'm not asking google what they think, I'm asking you what you think. I never thought that would trigger such a response.
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