As William Farr said, “the death rate is a fact; anything beyond this is an inference.”jb914 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:02 am Farr's law states we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak of a pandemic. According to Farr, there is a 21-28 day lag for deaths from peak cases.
Orange County and all of California peaked cases in July and deaths in August. The egg heads don't want to admit that, cuz, if you spent a ---- ton of hours on an algorithm you are not going to admit that some guy in the 1800's did a better job than you did with all your wicked coding/research skillz. You CYA
There will only be one model that will accurately depict the impact of the virus. None of the new models made using "coding skills" (you mean math?) will be it. Neither will a model made using Farr's law.