Actually i was wrong. It was predicting up to 2.2 million deaths without measures, which was a primary reason the UK locked down and that also influenced the US and other countries to lock down too. Doesn't matter it was sh*t code and it output different graphs for the same dataset when you ran it more than once. one of the many *bugs*. or perhaps that was a feature?
The google guy documents in detail the problems with the code.
Would I come to the same conclusion? I don't know I have not looked at the spanish flu data. I think we are further along towards herd immunity that we think.
I also think the virus has been around longer than December. Some articles I read indicated huge uptick in hospitalizations in China back in summer 2019 for respiratory/pneumonia illnesses.
Ivor mentioned sewage samples from some countries from back in 2019 too had covid19. So, *if* that is true then a lot more people have been infected. If they have sewage samples it's true.
And since the overwhelming majority of the infected have no symptoms or a very mild case like a cold or flu then we could expect this final bell curve to be the final one. is that a certainty? of course not.
I have said to friends since this started the lockdowns will cause more damage to lives, business, etc than any saved "deaths". I can show you dozens of family, friends, etc that have been harmed and are under extreme stress from this lock down. generational businesses that have failed and will never come back. Bankruptcy, etc etc etc.
regarding masks. the box of surgical masks have always said they do not protect you from a virus.
and as you said most people do not wear the mask properly ro clean it, so, it's essentially useless. it's like swimming in the non-peeing section of a pool.
But, the groupthink and the media have declared it, so it is written, so it shall be done.
If i had time I would study historical deaths for comorbidities over the past 10 years. Then compare covid deaths to that historical data and we can see the REAL effect of covid deaths. In the past when someone had cancer, etc, and got the flu did we list the cause of death as the flu? or was it cancer?
I'd guesstimate half of the covid deaths are people who died *with* covid, but, not *from* covid. If you have stage 4 lung cancer and you catch covid the odds are against you. IF you catch a cold the odds are against you too since the treatments harm the immune system. Same for Emphysema, COPD, many cardiac issues and the list goes on.
If you are in a nursing home and over 85 you have a 30% chance of death if you catch covid in OC. If you have those problems and catch a cold, the flu, get an infection, etc, etc, you are much more likely die from that as well. As my 89 year old aunt says "they were old and there gonna die of something anyway, that's life"
But, those are all counted as covid deaths right now. why? well, the hospitals get paid more if you *had* covid.
I don't think you should be for or against anybody on this one. We should all be for truth and accuracy.
totally with you here. That's what pisses me off with the sensationalization of this by the media and the scare tactics that are sold to everyone. Kids are afraid to socialize and that tension is harmful. More harmful than covid, IMHO.
joefutbol are you a servite guy?