Earth’s Global Warming Less Severe Than Feared

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kramer
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Earth’s Global Warming Less Severe Than Feared

Post by kramer » Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:50 pm

"The debate is over" and "the science is settled" update:

Norway Data Shows Earth’s Global Warming Less Severe Than Feared
By Adam Ewing - Jan 27, 2013 2:23 AM PT

New estimates from a Norwegian research project show meeting targets for minimizing global warming may be more achievable than previously thought.

After the planet’s average surface temperature rose through the 1990s, the increase has almost leveled off at the level of 2000, while ocean water temperature has also stabilized, the Research Council of Norway said in a statement on its website. After applying data from the past decade, the results showed temperatures may rise 1.9 degrees Celsius if Co2 levels double by 2050, below the 3 degrees predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“The Earth’s mean temperature rose sharply during the 1990s,” said Terje Berntsen, a professor at the University of Oslo who worked on the study. “This may have caused us to overestimate climate sensitivity.”

The findings also show the effect of reduced airborne particulates from burning coal, which may decrease the cloud cover that cools the earth, probably has less of an impact on climate through indirect cooling than originally projected.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-2 ... eared.html
Global warming less extreme than feared?

Policymakers are attempting to contain global warming at less than 2°C. New estimates from a Norwegian project on climate calculations indicate this target may be more attainable than many experts have feared.

. . .

“The Earth’s mean temperature rose sharply during the 1990s. This may have caused us to overestimate climate sensitivity.
[Warming from 1985 until 2000 was predicted in a 1979 science paper that was based on three different proxies... Nothing like leveraging nature to scare us into accepting radical lifestyle and economic system changes.]

. . .

Natural changes also a major factor [Wait, what?.. Are you a flat-Earth denier? We've been told that nature has a very small role...]

http://www.forskningsradet.no/en/Newsar ... side_nyhet

exaggerate |igˈzajəˌrāt|
verb [ trans. ]
represent (something) as being larger, greater, better, or worse than it really is : they were apt to exaggerate any aches and pains | [ intrans. ] I couldn't sleep for three days—I'm not exaggerating.
• [as adj. ] ( exaggerated) enlarged or altered beyond normal or due proportions : her plump thighs, exaggerated hips, and minuscule waist.


In 2000, James Hansen said that CO2 is NOT the main driver of human caused global warming:
Study Proposes New Strategy to Stem Global Warming
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Published: August 19, 2000

An influential expert on global warming who for nearly 20 years has pressed countries to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases now says the emphasis on carbon dioxide may be misplaced. Instead, he and a team of scientists have concluded that the quickest way to slow warming is to cut other such greenhouse gases first.

This strategy could help policy makers overcome a fundamental conflict in the debate over global warming: carbon dioxide, the main heat-trapping gas in the air, is an unavoidable byproduct of burning fossil fuels like coal and oil -- and combustion of fossil fuels is the foundation of industrial societies.

The expert, Dr. James E. Hansen, and his colleagues conclude in a new analysis that the warming seen in recent decades has been caused mainly by other heat-trapping emissions -- methane, chlorofluorocarbons, black particles of diesel and coal soot and compounds that create the ozone in smog -- which are easier to control than carbon dioxide, with many of them already on the decline.

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/19/us/st ... rming.html

What does Al Gore say?

Those conversations led Gore to politically inconvenient conclusions in this new book. In his conversations with Schmidt and other colleagues at the beginning of the year, Gore explored new studies - published only last week - that show methane and black carbon or soot had a far greater impact on global warming than previously thought. Carbon dioxide - while the focus of the politics of climate change - produces around 40% of the actual warming.
Gore acknowledged to Newsweek that the findings could complicate efforts to build a political consensus around the need to limit carbon emissions.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/no ... nt-climate

Could a demotion be at hand for the control knob of the Earth's climate?
“We should have been warned by the CFC/ozone affair because the corruption of science in that was so bad that something like 80% of the measurements being made during that time were either faked, or incompetently done.”

- Scientist James Lovelock

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