My Predictions for Trumps term(s)
1.) Higher GDP
Ugh…Fordy, 0 for 1. Poor guy…False. Truth – GDP was negative twice under Obama 2012, 2015, avg. Growth rate of 1.8% Under Obama, historical avg. 3.5%, with the highest being over 15% in roughly 51/53 and 83Fordama wrote: Not much of a prediction as it's been growing every year under Obama.
US GDP Growth Rate
2.) Better health, longer lives, higher survivorship
0 for 2 - Report in the Statesman Journal – USAToday adjunct: “U.S. life expectancy dipped by a little more than a month last year from 2014, to 78.8 years, according to a report from the National Center for Health Statistics. It's the first decline in more than two decades. And after years of gains, U.S. life expectancy has been essentially flat for a few years, which means an inauspicious trend could be in the works.”Fordama wrote: That's been going on for decade regardless of who has become President. The President has had little to do with this historically. Under Obama, twenty million more Americans were able to get health care and join the rest of us in the constantly increasing positive health outcomes.
Dying younger: U.S. life expectancy 'a real problem'
3.) Increased real wages
0 for 3 see snip, chart.Fordama wrote: That'd be nice to see the end of trickle-down economics. Real wages have been stagnant since Reagan took control of the White House.
All of the cohorts in this analysis saw impressive increases in 2015, and the top two quintiles and top 5% hit record income levels in 2015. However, the three lower quintiles remain below their record highs in inflation-adjusted terms. The table below documents the percent change from the peak year for middle and two lower quintiles and the lists peak year: 2000 for the middle and fourth quintile and 1999 for the bottom quintile.
It's important to understand that the data in the charts above is for the mean (average) income for each of these segments. For US households quintiles, the mean (average) income is higher than the median (middle of the range). We'll have more to say about this negative skew in a follow-up article on household incomes by age bracket.
US Household incomes: A 49 year perspective
4.) Lower welfare rate
0 for 4Fordama wrote: How? My guess is that if it does, it's just because they cut welfare, not because they help the poor.
4.A) Do what Bill Clinton did and require work for benefits, creating a incentive to get off welfare and realize better living standard by working for wages not benefits.
4.B) More jobs will be created due to lowering some taxes and eliminating unnecessary regulation, allowing US business’s to be rewarded for investing will lead to more investment in infrastructure and technology which will lead to more jobs and increased productivity. Business make money and find ways to make more money because it is profitable to to engage in enterprise free of Government entanglement.
5.) Greater home ownership
0 for 5Fordama wrote: Great, they're going to lower the value of my home. That's just peachy. How are they going to do that?
5.A) Your Guy inflated the value of your home in the first place, you teach math, buy low sell high, sell your home, bank the cash, buy when “they” lower the value of your home. Parting gift from your President.
5.B) You teach math, when you keep borrowing against your home you end up with nothing. You should have a fifteen year loan and live with in your means.
5.C) Normalize interest rates, means raise very gradually .25 to .5 a year this will stabilize markets.Fordama wrote:How are they going to do that?
5.D) Rising GDP will translate to higher real wages and growth through job creation and give more people the ability to start the process of wealth accumulation by taking the fundamental first step which is home ownership.
6.) Big increase in labor participation rate
0 for 6Fordama wrote: How? Are they going to just kill off all those waves of baby boomers that are retiring Logan's Run style?
That is just plane lame Teach…More jobs increases labor participation rate. Nobody gets killed Fordy…chill buddy, it is going to be OK…
7.) More full time jobs
0 for 7Fordama wrote: Not much of a prediction as the number of full time jobs has been increasing since the Bush crash in 2008.
7.A) The repeal of Glass-Steagal (not Bush) created the conditions that led to the collapse of Lehman Bros, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch and insurance giant AIG which led the financial crisis. This occurred under the Clinton administration however Dems and Repubs are all guilty as they signed off on the repeal.
7.B) When you are letting in 3 times more people than jobs created you get stagnant wages, which is due to too many workers not enough jobs and an anti business climate. Trump will reduce the flood of illegals entering the US and incentivize business opportunity and investment, creating more jobs for Legal Citizens and stop the flood.
8.) Crippling of terrorist regimes
0 for 8Fordama wrote: By supporting Assad?
If you threaten to draw a red line in the sand and then do nothing when it gets crossed…Guess what? Others will not think twice about crossing your lines as they know you are a bluffer and will do nothing! Like, Hack all your electronic infrastructure, invade Crimea, make a bunch of islands in international waters and be able to threaten trade routes etc.…
Trump will scrap the Obama doctrine of a feckless foreign policy and give the best military in the world authority to prosecute and win conflicts or prevent them by fear and respect. The US requires restoration of our military capability and this will require some spending, Trumps challenge will be to convert waste (1.25 Trillion dollars) into assets.
9.) Better relations with China and Russia
.5 for 9Fordama wrote: Well Russia, yeah. We elected their boy to the job. China--that's already going south since Trump won the election.
I’m giving you a half a point for acknowledging better relations with Russia. Trump is a far better deal maker and with business and trade experience he can parlay that in the best interest of all but primarily the US as with a global economy there is enough pie to go around…backed up with a great big stick, just incase someone does not like pie. Peace through strength.
10.) Improved performance of US students
.5 for 10Fordama wrote: No President has anything to do with that. This shows that you simply are out of touch with reality.
You are wrong on this as a President appoints the Secretary of Education and Trump said it best, “Betsy DeVos is a brilliant and passionate education advocate,” Mr. Trump said in a statement Thursday. “Under her leadership we will reform the U.S. education system and break the bureaucracy that is holding our children back so that we can deliver world-class education and school choice to all families.”
This will make public educators compete instead of abide and hopefully weed out the bad teachers….you know the ones that have zero accountability and spew all kinds of garbage with no repercussions…time to go!
Donald Trump taps Betsy DeVos for education secretary
11.) Better healthcare for Veterans
.5 for 11Maybe is not a valid answer…Fordama wrote: Maybe. Ever read the Rand Corporation's report on the VA health care system? It doesn't actually jive with what the stories that are popular with the media.
Did not read the Rand Report but here is what the NYTimes is reporting:
Snip - When President Obama signed a sweeping $15 billion bill to end delays at Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals two years ago, lawmakers standing with him applauded the legislation as a bold response that would finally break the logjam.
Snip -According to the agency’s most recent data, 526,000 veterans are waiting more than a month for care. And about 88,000 of them are waiting more than three months.
Did Obama’s Bill Fix Veterans’ Health Care? Still Waiting.
12.) Higher savings rates for US households
Close but no cigar….5 for 12Fordama wrote: That's been steadily increasing since 2005 already.
Household Saving Rate in the United States decreased to 5.50 percent in November from 5.70 percent in October of 2016. Personal Savings in the United States averaged 8.31 percent from 1959 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in May of 1975 and a record low of 1.90 percent in July of 2005.
US Personal savings rate
13.) Improved trade deals causing a sharp rise in Cap Ex and GDP at the 6% by the end of 2019
.5 for 13Fordama wrote: Maybe. Maybe not.
Maybe, Maybe not? Is that how you design your math test answers to questions?…I notice you rarely provide proof for your statements...
14.) Large increase in US wealth and productivity by the end of 2019.
.5 for 14Fordama wrote: Through magic? The higher cost of domestic manufacturing that Trumpophiles have been trumpeting is going to cause a jump in consumer costs. I'm old enough to remember high inflation. That's something that retiring and near retiring baby boomers will not like in the least.
Speaking of being out of touch…your response to point 5 was lamenting your inflated home value caused by artificially low interest rates(under Obama administration) which you have no problem with but here you are worried about it…out of touch with reality!
Also increased productivity keeps costs low and a competitive market guarantee efficiency in the market which also keeps costs as low as possible. Additionally scrapping stupid green energy projects that increase costs dramatically and require increased taxes to subsidize will be a thing of the past.
.5/14 F Bad Job Fordy