Some polling nuggets

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John Q. Public
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Some polling nuggets

Postby John Q. Public » Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:10 pm

From fivethirtyeight.com. Make what you will of them. I think they're interesting, whether I agree with them or not.

32 percent of Americans approve of the way Trump handled his recent summit meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin according to a CBS News poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday. That includes 68 percent of Republicans and only 8 percent of Democrats.


According to Gallup, 22 percent of Americans say immigration is the most important problem facing the nation today, making it this month’s most commonly chosen top problem. That number is up 8 percentage points from last month, and it’s the highest Gallup has recorded since it began asking the question.

Two ways you could see immigration as a problem, so it isn't all that surprising, depending on what the other "problems" on their list were.

According to a YouGov poll, 28 percent of Americans (including 58 percent of Republicans and 9 percent of Democrats) say they believe that Trump is being framed by the FBI and the Department of Justice. YouGov has asked this question every month since March, and those numbers have remained relatively unchanged.

That one does surprise me.

46 percent of Americans say they are extremely interested in the November elections according to a Fox News poll. That’s compared to 29 percent around this time in 2014 and 28 percent in 2010.


Only about half of American adults believe that the nation’s elections are fair and open, according to an IPSOS poll. That includes 43 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans.

Another surprise.

And Russians' trust in Vladimir Putin has dropped below 50% for the first time in five years. Hmmm.


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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Omar Bongo » Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:38 pm

Only about half of American adults believe that the nation’s elections are fair and open, according to an IPSOS poll. That includes 43 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans

Like immigration that's another one that could have more than one interpretation.

For Dems that could include alarm over the Citizens United decision, repeated attempts at voter suppression, the watering down of the Voting Rights act, rampant gerrymandering, foreign entities meddling in favor of the GOP, etc.

For Republicans it could signify paranoia about the "Deep State" and those millions of illegals voting for Dems...
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Wabash » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:27 am

I hear about the "Deep State" all the time from my conservative friend. I have to give the Russians credit for realizing how easily it is to manipulate that group.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Wabash » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:39 am

From Electoralvote.com


Interpreting polls in the Age of Trump is no easy thing, but these headlines might be missing the point. First of all, those numbers among independents are pretty ghastly, especially for a president who has very little margin of error to work with if he wants to be reelected. More precisely, he got between 48% and 52% of the independent vote in the three states that he won by a combined 77,000 votes. The evidence is mounting that he won't do nearly as well the second time around.

Second, and more importantly, the big news in the two weeks (or so) before Trump's European trip was that he was at 90% approval among Republicans. The President even bragged that he was doing better than Abraham Lincoln (overlooking the minor point that Old Abe died 60 years before polling began). Just about a quarter of those 90% are now unhappy enough with what they saw that they were willing to tell a pollster about it. Perhaps every one of them will fall back in line behind the Donald, but the smart money says some do not. And again, this is a president with very little margin for error—he can't afford to bleed 2 or 3 percent of his support. Put another way, we wondered on Monday whether or not Donald Trump had reached his tipping point. That is a question that cannot be answered right now, but what we can say is that this is exactly what it looks like when such a moment arrives.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Professor Fate » Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:19 pm

Wabash wrote:Source of the post we wondered on Monday whether or not Donald Trump had reached his tipping point. That is a question that cannot be answered right now, but what we can say is that this is exactly what it looks like when such a moment arrives.

Gee, seems like I've heard that many times before. The Access Hollywood tape, firing Comey, the Charlottesville rally remarks, the separating of the children at the border, and now a press conference that wasn't hostile enough.
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Wabash » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:50 pm

All those have proved are the situational morals and patriotism of the evangelicals.

Which wasn't a surprise. Despite their claims of piety and patriotism they are the biggest sinners and America haters in our midst.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Red » Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:45 am

I am pretty sure you are going to find millions of democrats are going to cross the isle and be Americans again. No honest hard working tax paying worker of both parties want their taxes raised nor intelligence officials determining our President. Good for them. Welcome to the big tent.
Liberalism is like an out-of-control 5 year old at McDonalds. All the talking to and admonishment won't make a difference. They have no concept of right or wrong, they are nothing more than narcissists.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Vilepagan » Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:48 am

Red wrote:Source of the post I am pretty sure you are going to find millions of democrats are going to cross the isle and be Americans again.


I'm pretty sure Democrats are Americans and always have been. No need to cross the aisle, or the isle. :wink:

Welcome to the big tent.


Yeah, right. Now you're pretending that the Republican Party is welcoming. Is there no reality you won't just ignore?
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Omar Bongo » Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:38 pm

Red's occasional calm, literate posts are always intriguing...it's like he's a completely different person :2cents:
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
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Donald Trump

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Red » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:18 pm

Not true. Democrats used to be Americans and now there will be MILLIONS of Americans that used to be Democrats.
Liberalism is like an out-of-control 5 year old at McDonalds. All the talking to and admonishment won't make a difference. They have no concept of right or wrong, they are nothing more than narcissists.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Red » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:20 pm

I have no idea why I was so angry before. I am calmer because everything predicted came true.
Liberalism is like an out-of-control 5 year old at McDonalds. All the talking to and admonishment won't make a difference. They have no concept of right or wrong, they are nothing more than narcissists.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby crayegg » Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:00 pm

That the Trump administration would be an unmitigated disaster is the clearest prediction that I see came true.

And with Trump's meddling in the economy with Tariffs and what not, the long sustained economic momentum built up by the Obama administration that has sustained the economy up to now, will likely make a precipitous turn south.

I sure hope this country wises up and disowns the Republican Party as currently constituted. Starting in November.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Omar Bongo » Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:30 pm

Red wrote:Source of the post I am calmer because everything predicted came true.

Like that's a good thing :lol:
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Professor Fate » Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:01 pm

Americans' Views of the Top Problem Facing the U.S.
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
July 1-11, 2018
%

Immigration/Illegal aliens 22
Dissatisfaction with government/Poor leadership 19
Race relations/Racism 7
Unifying the country 6
Lack of respect for each other 6
Healthcare 3
Ethics/moral/religious/family decline 3
Poverty/Hunger/Homelessness 2
Guns/Gun control 2
Education 2
Judicial system/Courts/Laws 2
Environment/Pollution 2
Crime/Violence 1
The media 1
National security 1
School shootings 1
Children’s behavior/Way they are raised 1
Drugs 1
Wars/War (nonspecific)/Fear of war 1
Terrorism 1
International issues, problems 1
Abortion 1
Welfare 1
Situation with North Korea 1
Elections/Election reform 1
Foreign policy/Foreign aid/Focus overseas 1
Situation with Russia *
Social Security *
Advancement of Computers/Technology *
Care for the elderly/Medicare *
War/conflict between Middle East nations *
Situation in Iraq/ISIS --
Lack of military defense --*
Gay rights issues --
Situation in Syria --
Energy/Lack of energy sources --
Other non-economic 7
No opinion 3

* Less than 0.5%

https://news.gallup.com/poll/237392/sat ... edium=copy
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Omar Bongo
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Omar Bongo » Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:25 pm

Dissatisfaction with government/Poor leadership 19*

*1 out of 5 polled
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby John Q. Public » Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:52 am

  • A YouGov poll found that 49 percent of Americans said they believe it is either “definitely” or “probably” true that millions of illegal votes were cast in the 2016 presidential election. That includes 42 percent of Democrats as well as 59 percent of Republicans.
  • A poll from the Pew Research Center found a decline in the FBI’s favorability from 71 percent in September 2016 to 65 percent now. That may not seem like much of a change, but the topline numbers mask a growing partisan divide.

    Democrats - 77%
    Independents - 65%
    Republicans - 49%

    In 2010 it was Republicans 71%, Democrats 68%, Independents 67%.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in ... -rankings/

The first one still surprises me. The likelihood of millions of people having voted illegally is near zero. Yet even 42% of Democrats think it happened. --:--

And a little factoid from somewhere else (don't ask me to remember where): The fastest growing groups of illegal immigrants are coming from India and China. Mexico is something like 8th. Most common method - overstaying a visa.
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Professor Fate » Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:29 pm

MOLLIE HEMINGWAY, THE FEDERALIST: Donald Trump did not create distrust of the media; distrust of the media helped create Donald Trump and the media really need to get a handle on why so many Americans don't just dislike them but loathe them.
If the only way you can sort of defend media performances, or if you get really upset about Donald Trump criticizing the media is if you think the media are doing a good job.

The fact is that very few Americans actually think the media are doing a good job. A recent poll showed that 72% of Americans think that the media deliberately report fake, false, or misleading news. I think the misleading thing is really significant there.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... trump.html
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Vilepagan » Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:41 pm

Professor Fate wrote:Source of the post MOLLIE HEMINGWAY, THE FEDERALIST: Donald Trump did not create distrust of the media; distrust of the media helped create Donald Trump and the media really need to get a handle on why so many Americans don't just dislike them but loathe them.
If the only way you can sort of defend media performances, or if you get really upset about Donald Trump criticizing the media is if you think the media are doing a good job.

The fact is that very few Americans actually think the media are doing a good job. A recent poll showed that 72% of Americans think that the media deliberately report fake, false, or misleading news. I think the misleading thing is really significant there.


Wow, it's quite astonishing just how much this woman gets wrong. I think the media is doing a good job. I also think the fact* that 72% of Americans think anything isn't evidence of anything other than that poll result. Speaking of evidence, that's why I think the media is doing a good job. Their reporting tends to be accurate and when they do occasionally report fake, false, or misleading news that usually comes out in short order...in the media. I'd also point out that Ms. H published her anti-media opinions in....the media. The truth is that when people complain about the media they're usually complaining about what the media said, and I suspect that's at the heart of what Mr. trump's complaints are about. He hates it when people say bad things about him, and I fear it will be his downfall.




* I refer to the poll result as a "fact" because I have no idea if the poll was real or if the results are valid but for the sake of the discussion I'm willing to stipulate it's true.
There is no fire like passion, there is no shark like hatred, there is no snare like folly, there is no torrent like greed. - The Dhammapada

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby Wabash » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:19 am

A FB friend asked his conservative friends to point to an example of "fake news."

Not surprisingly, none of them could.

The only stories that were pointed as inaccurate also had to be recognized when a correction was also printed.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Postby John Q. Public » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:21 am

MOLLIE HEMINGWAY wrote: The fact is that very few Americans actually think the media are doing a good job. A recent poll showed that 72% of Americans think that the media deliberately report fake, false, or misleading news. I think the misleading thing is really significant there.

Probably a dozen ways you can read that, not one of which says that "the media," however that's defined, actually do report fake, false or misleading news. Maybe of interest to their marketing departments, but otherwise about as meaningless as a statistic can be.
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