Some polling nuggets

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Wabash
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by Wabash » Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:29 am

McConnell stated that admitting Puerto Rico as the 51st state would be socialism. :eh?:
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by broman » Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:08 pm

Some polling that Democrats need to take a close look at....

Apparently, education and intelligence do matter.

The changing demographics of the Republican party are interesting and perhaps explanatory of some voter behavior, especially in regard to the nature of die-hard Trump supporters. Generalizing, of course (because there are always exceptions), today's Republican party is older, whiter, and less educated than it has been in the past -- and compared to the demographic makeup of the opposition party.
The education level is especially telling. According to a Public Opinion Strategies report (based on NBC/Wall St. Journal data), in 2012, 40% of Republicans were college educated whites. In 2018, that demographic in the Trump-dominated Republican party slipped to just 29%. It is evident that the Republican party is losing college-educated voters and, perhaps, attracting more voters who are less educated.
https://www.smerconish.com/news/2019/6/ ... lectualism

2020 Dems face the same issue that Hillary faced in 2016. How do you convince these people that opportunity still exist for them in a nation with more diversity when their trusted media sources and leaders are telling them the sky is falling on a daily basis?

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John Q. Public
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by John Q. Public » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:00 pm

An anomaly to that 29% number (which sounds totally believable these days): I saw a survey over the weekend that said that in Florida, the majority of college-educated men support Trump. I haven't seen that anywhere else.

And a note: "College educated" includes all fields of study, some of which lean pretty strongly Conservative. And it doesn't necessarily mean they're more politically savvy than non-college-educated people.
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by John Q. Public » Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:55 pm

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. adults estimate that nearly one in four Americans (23.6%) are gay or lesbian. Gallup has previously found that Americans have greatly overestimated the U.S. gay population, recording similar average estimates of 24.6% in 2011 and 23.2% in 2015. In each of the three polls in which Gallup has asked this question, a majority of Americans estimated this population to be 20% or greater.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/259571/ame ... ation.aspx
35% guessed it's higher than 25%. The actual number, according to Gallup - 4.5%. Going by the number of gay people I know or have known, I think I'd have guessed lower than that.
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by John Q. Public » Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:51 am

My God, they are taking over! :wink:
lgbt political activity.jpg
Common sense, but it's interesting to see it as a graphic, no? Note that the non-LGBT numbers are pretty respectable, too. Young people aren't happy. Gay young people even less so.
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by John Q. Public » Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:20 am

The Republican candidate.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by John Q. Public » Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:52 am

So most any of the leading challengers, maybe even Williamson or Walsh could beat Trump, at least in the popular vote. Beto, as weak as he is nationally, could very well win Texas, with as many electoral votes as Pennsylvania and Ohio put together. Interesting.

TEXAS
Which one you would like to see as the Democratic presidential nominee?
[top responses]
Biden 24%
O’Rourke 18%
Warren 15%
Sanders 13%
Harris 4%
Castro 4%
Buttigieg 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
Bullock 2%
(Texas Lyceum Poll, Democratic primary voters, 8/16-25/19)
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by cruiser » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:32 pm

Trump approval rating per "The Hill-Harris X Survey and others at all time high, thoughts?

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by Wabash » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:12 pm

Still less than 50%.

Approval for impeachment has also gone up.
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by cruiser » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:46 pm

I could be wrong but I'm thinking the impeachment process against Trump (maybe wrong) in
some ways is actually helping Trump for his 2020 election - he knows if it goes to the senate
it dies there any way.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by Wabash » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:54 pm

It will also energize Dem voters.

It will force GOP senators to defend Trump. Which may cost the GOP the Senate.

Given that McConnell is not allowing over a 100 bills passed by the House to come to a vote, that is a good thing.
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by cruiser » Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:28 pm

.. would it not be a clusterF if the Dem's have control of both house and senate after next election
and Trump wins re-election,what a circus that would be...

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by John Q. Public » Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:14 pm

His base has dug in its heels but his base isn't really a very large group - certainly not big enough to win an election.
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Wabash
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by Wabash » Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:37 pm

cruiser wrote:.. would it not be a clusterF if the Dem's have control of both house and senate after next election
and Trump wins re-election,what a circus that would be...
Maybe. They could send him all sorts of bills daring him to veto.

The first thing to happen will be the end of any discussion regarding eliminating the 60 vote rule.

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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by Omar Bongo » Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:44 pm

cruiser wrote:Trump approval rating per "The Hill-Harris X Survey and others at all time high, thoughts?
Are we just supposed to believe you, or do you got a link? 538 says it's way too early to conclude anything yet:

"As of Sept. 24 — the day House Speaker Nancy Pelosi formally announced an impeachment inquiry — Trump’s approval rating sat at an unusually high 43.1 percent. But today, his approval rating sits at 41.3 percent. That’s a nearly 2-point drop in a little over a week, suggesting that the Ukraine scandal may be giving Trump supporters second thoughts about the president. Two points isn’t a ton of movement, but as my colleague Geoffrey Skelley has written, Trump’s approval rating is incredibly stable, so even a shift of 1 or 2 points can be notable.

On the other hand, this also just brings Trump’s approval rating back to about where it was earlier in September. In fact, Trump’s 43.1 percent approval rating on Sept. 24 was his highest mark all year, and it’s possible that the uptick that got Trump there was just noise...The bottom line is, a lot of things could be happening here, and we should wait for more data."


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ho ... al-rating/
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by John Q. Public » Sat Oct 05, 2019 3:15 pm

Donald's approval ratings by state, converted to electoral votes. Assuming, I guess, that disapproval would mean a vote for the other guy.
trump approval by state.png
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by Omar Bongo » Sat Oct 05, 2019 5:37 pm

Poor South Carolina, shades of East Berlin...can they tiptoe along the NC-GA border to friendly territory?
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
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Re: Some polling nuggets

Post by John Q. Public » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:30 pm

Interesting. It isn't so much that Californians like the Democratic Party as it is they don't like the GOP. In the business world you'd call both opportunities. In politics, apparently not.

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1 ... 70306?s=20
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1 ... 93250?s=20
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Post by Omar Bongo » Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:39 am

Good Morning, Mr. Briber in Chief:

ABCNews/Ipsos Poll:
President Trump's actions with Ukraine were wrong
70% agree (over half those 70% say he should be impeached and removed from office)
25% disagree

NPR/PBS NewsHour Poll:
70% think what Trump did is unacceptable
50% think Trump should be impeached

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