Some polling nuggets

[Foggy]

No, it's embarrassing here in North Carolina. We should be a blue state, the demographics keep moving in that direction. Obama won here by 14,000 votes in '08. But then Rmoney in '12 and Psychobozo in '16.

Sigh. We'll get there ...

[Wabash]

None of those 3 states will be blowouts, IMHO.

Biden does not need those states to win. He does need PA. And the returned ballot count looks very good for him.

[Tommy Tar]

A new round of polls this week from the Trafalgar Group has President Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan, showing Mr. Trump’s 2016 path to victory has not yet been upset.

The two candidates are also in an incredibly tight race for Wisconsin, according to a recent survey conducted by Robert Cahaly, the chief pollster for Trafalgar Group.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ates-poll/

Ohio is Trumps. AZ NV are a toss up.

[Foggy]

Day before yesterday, 538 gave Trafalgar group a C minus for accuracy. Trafalgar group adjusts its polling for what they think is the "shy Trump voter" -- those who are going to vote for Psychobozo but are afraid to tell that to pollsters because they're so sensitive and don't want anyone to hurt their delicate fee-fees.

In other words, ****.

[Tommy Tar]

How did The Trafalgar do in 2016?

[Foggy]

They did well. 'Course, this isn't 2016.

[Wabash]

Things are different this year. Trump is not running against an unpopular candidate. There are 34 states that are holding two different statewide federal elections this year, one for president and one for the U.S. Senate. Presumably, if some meaningful number of people were embarrassed to admit their support for Trump, he should be running behind some/many/all of the Republican Senate candidates. And yet, that is clearly not the case.

Trump is running ahead of the Republican Senate candidate in 30 of 36 races. Voters who plan to vote a Republican ticket (and some who plan to vote a split ticket) have no concerns about admitting to their support for the President.

Anything is possible. Given the hole being dug by early ballots, the GOP is going to have to hope for an ever increasing level of turnout at the polls on election day.

[broman]

Look into the Trafalgar polls....
It has consistently found Trump’s support about 6 points better than most other pollsters across the board. Fine. Throw it in the average. But until recently, Trafalgar hadn’t been releasing crosstabs of many of its polls. And now that we’ve seen them, they’re really … something else. A Trafalgar Florida poll, for example, that has Trump leading overall by 3 points, shows Trump winning 25 percent of Black voters and leading among 18-to-24-year-olds. A Michigan poll that has Trump leading by 2 points—the other most recent Michigan polls show Biden leading by 10, 8, 8, 9, and 7—finds Trump leading among 18-to-24-year-olds by 14 points, winning 25 percent of Black voters, and winning independents by 28 points. These figures are in a separate universe from what other pollsters, private and public, are showing. Other pollsters, like Susquehanna and InsiderAdvantage, have been showing similar top-line results. They’ve been commissioned by a pro-Trump entity called the “Center for American Greatness.”
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... -2020.html

[broman]

They did well. 'Course, this isn't 2016.

Trump somehow increases his minority share of the vote, 5 to 10%. (Florida seems to be that state)
Enough votes are not counted, rejected, challenged, etc..
Biden has a bigger collapse than Clinton did in 2016

[John Q. Public]

I'd think that this year, the shy voters will be Republicans voting for Biden.

[Foggy]

Biden has a bigger collapse than Clinton did in 2016

I think you're going to be surprised.

[Wabash]

I'd think that this year, the shy voters will be Republicans voting for Biden.

I looked for it. I read somewhere (maybe an obscure blog) that there was research out there that indicated at least 20% of college educated white males who voted for Trump would either not vote for president or would vote for a Dem this one time to get rid of Trump. If that is true, it changes a lot of close races.

[broman]

Two big differences from 2016 to 2020 is that Biden polls at 50 to 46 percent in battle grounds vs Clinton who polled at 46 to 42 percent. The other one is Johnson and Stein polled as high as 8pts in some states but lost 3% in their final vote.

[Omar Bongo]

A new round of polls this week from the Trafalgar Group...

[broman]

2016 repeat?

A few C/C- (538 ratings) have Trump ahead in all the battlegrounds. All the A+ polls have Biden up and Trump even in Arizona. Real Clear Politics doesn't rate polls and as everything much closer.

[Wabash]

Giving the amount of voter suppression being done by the GOP I am betting their internal polls show it being much worse than what they are saying.

[Vilepagan]

I put my hopes in the youth vote...record numbers have already voted and I doubt trump is their preferred candidate.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/26/92780321 ... ng-records

[broman]

If you dig into the best Trump polling, he doubles his Black vote count and gets half of Hispanics.

[ShiftyMutt]

I’m going with Michael Moore. He was right about Iraq, he was right about Trump winning in 2016, he’s betting Biden will win.

[John Q. Public]

Morning Consult says 30% of voters are planning on voting on election day - 24% Dem, 31% Independent, 41% Republican. Also, 38% Black, 36% Hispanic and 30% White.

So those huge numbers we've seen are only 70% of people planning to vote. I have a feeling the Black turnout this year might be a record.

https://morningconsult.com/exit-polling-live-updates/