Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Hanna
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Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Hanna » Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:13 am

(snip)

A striking feature of the U.S. stock market is that it persistently does better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones. In a 2003 paper, Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov found that regardless of how they sliced the data, returns were substantially better for Democrats. Since then, with the poor returns under President George W. Bush and the strong returns under President Barack Obama, the effect has only become stronger.

Messrs. Santa-Clara and Valkanov couldn’t come up with a satisfactory explanation for the presidential puzzle. But in new research, University of Chicago Booth School of Business economists Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi think they have come up with the answer.

The two economists created a model where people have a choice between being entrepreneurs and working for the government, and of voting for a political party that favors lower taxes or higher taxes. When risk aversion is low, more people want to be entrepreneurs and to vote for the low-tax party. When risk aversion is high, the opposite is true.

It is a highly simplified version of U.S. politics and economics. But the implications for stock prices are interesting. The low-tax party gets elected when risk aversion is low, and then if risk aversion merely returns to the mean, stocks suffer. For the high-tax party, the opposite is true.

More..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-st ... 1487351985



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Professor Fate
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Professor Fate » Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:10 pm

At the closing bell 2/21/'17 20,743.00
At the closing bell 11/8/'16 18,332.26

+2,410.26 gain since Trump was elected.

Thanks President Trump!

Enough said.
Well, obviously we have giant butterflies in CA. They's climbin' in your windows, They's snatchin' your people up, tryin' to steal 'em. So y'all need to hide your kids, hide your stars, and hide your coaches cause they're grabin' everybody out here.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Omar Bongo » Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:24 pm

Can you get Trump to declare victory after one month and go home too?
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Professor Fate
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Professor Fate » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:31 am

Professor Fate wrote:At the closing bell 11/8/'16 18,332.26

At the closing bell 10/10/'17 22,830.68

Up 4,498.42 since Trump was elected.

Thanks President Trump!

Tired of winning yet?
Well, obviously we have giant butterflies in CA. They's climbin' in your windows, They's snatchin' your people up, tryin' to steal 'em. So y'all need to hide your kids, hide your stars, and hide your coaches cause they're grabin' everybody out here.

joefutbol
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby joefutbol » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:19 am

What do you predict it will be at by the end of his term?

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Professor Fate
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Professor Fate » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:22 pm

If I knew that I'd be rich.
Well, obviously we have giant butterflies in CA. They's climbin' in your windows, They's snatchin' your people up, tryin' to steal 'em. So y'all need to hide your kids, hide your stars, and hide your coaches cause they're grabin' everybody out here.

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Professor Fate
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Professor Fate » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:35 pm

The Dow is up another 85.24 today. 22956.96 Yet another all-time high. Who says you can't have your 401K and spend it too?
Well, obviously we have giant butterflies in CA. They's climbin' in your windows, They's snatchin' your people up, tryin' to steal 'em. So y'all need to hide your kids, hide your stars, and hide your coaches cause they're grabin' everybody out here.

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Professor Fate
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Professor Fate » Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:03 pm

How about now?

Dow is at 23,836.71

Up 5,504.45 since Trump was elected.

Tired of winning yet?
Well, obviously we have giant butterflies in CA. They's climbin' in your windows, They's snatchin' your people up, tryin' to steal 'em. So y'all need to hide your kids, hide your stars, and hide your coaches cause they're grabin' everybody out here.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Omar Bongo » Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:07 pm

In ten months he's broken a multitude of campaign "promises" and accomplished exactly ZILCH, so it's not surprising you're desperately casting about for anything remotely resembling an accomplishment...congratulating Wall Street and corporate fatcats like Trump and his cabinet cronies for manipulating the financial markets so they can stuff their offshore accounts with cash while everything else is going to hell...priceless
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

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John Q. Public
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby John Q. Public » Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:33 pm

Dow up 18.0% since Trump was elected.

FTSE up 16.3% since Trump was elected.

Global Dow up 23.2% since Trump was elected.

DAX up 22.4% since Trump was elected.

Nikei up 22.9% since Trump was elected.

Hang Seng up 31.9% since Trump was elected.

WOOHOO! Way to go, Don! :victorydance:
Don't look at me, I just work here.

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Professor Fate
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Professor Fate » Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:41 pm

Omar Bongo wrote:Source of the post congratulating Wall Street and corporate fatcats like Trump and his cabinet cronies for manipulating the financial markets so they can stuff their offshore accounts with cash while everything else is going to hell...priceless

I am retired now, and have withdrawn 9% of my 401k this year, and yet my balance is higher than it was before those withdrawals. Like I said in an earlier post...Who says you can't have your 401k and spend it too? :thumbsup:
Well, obviously we have giant butterflies in CA. They's climbin' in your windows, They's snatchin' your people up, tryin' to steal 'em. So y'all need to hide your kids, hide your stars, and hide your coaches cause they're grabin' everybody out here.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Omar Bongo » Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:47 pm

You already tried this in another thread ...short term memory issues?

Image
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

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John Q. Public
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby John Q. Public » Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:49 pm

Imagine if you'd invested in Asian or European companies, Professor.
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Professor Fate
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Professor Fate » Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:01 pm

Sorry Omar, same answer. You're trying to compare 8 years of Obama to 1 year of Trump.

Secondly, your graph doesn't show all of 2017 to date. It's now almost 24,000, not 21,000 like your graph shows.

Nice Try though Omar. :roll:
Well, obviously we have giant butterflies in CA. They's climbin' in your windows, They's snatchin' your people up, tryin' to steal 'em. So y'all need to hide your kids, hide your stars, and hide your coaches cause they're grabin' everybody out here.

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John Q. Public
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby John Q. Public » Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:06 pm

As are you. And you're pointing to an under-performing market as your example.
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Professor Fate
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Professor Fate » Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:10 pm

And, the arrow should point to 18, 332.26 which is what it was when Trump was elected on that glorious day, November 8 2016.
Well, obviously we have giant butterflies in CA. They's climbin' in your windows, They's snatchin' your people up, tryin' to steal 'em. So y'all need to hide your kids, hide your stars, and hide your coaches cause they're grabin' everybody out here.

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John Q. Public
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby John Q. Public » Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:41 pm

Or three years earlier when it first moved into record territory. Fact is, he inherited a long-term bull market that's continued either because of him or in spite of him. And considering that all of the major foreign markets except the UK's (and they've had their own little issues) have out-performed the Dow, I think I'll go with the latter.
Don't look at me, I just work here.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Omar Bongo » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:28 am

Professor Fate wrote:You're trying to compare 8 years of Obama to 1 year of Trump

And you're counting Nov. 2016 - Jan. 2017 twice...is that Trump University math?

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Professor Fate
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Professor Fate » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:41 am

I am not. 18,332.26 on Nov 8, 2016. And 23,836.71 now.
Well, obviously we have giant butterflies in CA. They's climbin' in your windows, They's snatchin' your people up, tryin' to steal 'em. So y'all need to hide your kids, hide your stars, and hide your coaches cause they're grabin' everybody out here.

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Wabash
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Re: Why the Stock Market Doesnt Like Republicans

Postby Wabash » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:43 am

He didn't take office till Jan. 20, 2017. His first budget didn't take effect till Oct. 1, 2017. So those gains you tout are the result of Obama era policies.
They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

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