D1 Playoff Thread - Predictions

[Playingtime]

Pick em - Comments encouraged...

Mater Dei V Vista Murrieta
LB poly V J Serra
Mission Viejo V Servite
Chaminade V OLU
Bosco V Amat
R. Cucamonga V San Clemente
Murrieta Valley V Santa Margarita
Centennial V Serra

[Playingtime]

MD
J.Serra (only upset)
MV
Chaminade
Bosco
Cucamonga
SM
Centennial

[OutOfState]

MD easily and starters only play 1st half
Poly over JSerra in a close one
Mission over Servite by 10
OLU over Chaminade - my upset special
Bosco over Amat by 28 - Soph QB now comfortable and they are getting back linemen just in time for playoffs
RC over SC by 21
SM over MV by 14
Centennial over Serra by 35

[Professor Fate]

MD
J Serra
MV
O Lu
Bosco
San Clemente
SMCHS
Centennial

[insidetrinity]

md over vista murietta- shouldnt be close not much to explain
jserra over poly- i think jserra is the favorite in this game but im not sure. havent seen poly but clearly they arent the dominant team were used to from years past. jserras run game is very good and there qb is solid. probably much better coached
mv over servite- doubt this is too close. dont think servite will stop mv run attack and mv defense is stingy
chaminade over olu- dont know a ton about nade but olu could give them a run for their money. olu is solid offensively and can put up points in a hurry
bosco over amat- bosco seems to be finding their groove and gets some linemen back. they win easy
rc over sc- i dont know how good rc is but they surprised me last year when they beat mv and i saw sc play once this year and wasnt overly impressed
sm over murietta valley- dont know much about murietta valley but they lost to corona santiago and sm is good. my guess is sm wins comfortably
centennial over serra- serra seems to be a mixed bag this year. centennial is good and logan teams are always solid

[Omar Bongo]

FWIW, here are the Calpreps computer projections, all on a neutral field
Not sure if this includes data from Friday's games:

Mater Dei over Vista Murrieta 56-0
JSerra over Long Beach Poly 38-21
Mission Viejo over Servite 35-21
Chaminade over Orange Lutheran 40-27
St. John Bosco over Bishop Amat 41-12
Rancho Cucamonga over San Clemente 31-21
Santa Margarita over Murrieta Valley 48-24
Centennial over Serra 49-21

[frankieboy1]

Bosco will go running clock on Bishop Amat. JSerra beat them pretty handily.

[Omar Bongo]

I posted this previously in another thread:

In that game Amat held out 4 offensive starters including the QB until midway through the first half for unspecified disciplinary reasons...the subs had 3 turnovers in the 1st quarter that resulted in 17 points for the Lions and a 31-0 lead.

[frankieboy1]

was there...still say they go running clock.

[Mr. Grady]

Going with the favorites.

The spreads per Calpreps projections:

MD (-56)
JSerra (-14)
Mission (-14)
Chaminade (-15)

SJB (-32)
RC (-10)
SM (-20)
CC (-29)

I have no reason not to stick with the favorites even with JSerra and SM on the road. The JSerra spread is probably a touchdown too high but the calpreps computer is looking at the Mission Viejo and G-Serra losses and the Moore or Less League to gauge LBP on.

[watchersince68]

Pickin 2 upsets
MD
LBP
MV
Chaminade

SJB
SC
SM
CC

[templar83]

MD--should be able to rest a few nicked-up kids for a second week

JSerra...Lions a much better coached team

MV...but not by a whole lot

Chaminade...another close one

Bosco..Braves peaking at the right time, injured players back and they will be tough to beat.

RC...Tritons in over their collective heads

SM...Eagles heading for a shootout with CC

CC...Huskies time of year.

[hit the lights]

MD
JSERRA
MV
CHAMINADE
BOSCO
RC
SM
CC

[OutOfState]

Pickin 2 upsets
MD
LBP
MV
Chaminade

SJB
SC
SM
CC

That is only one upset? SC over Ranch Cuc.
Nothing else you picked qualifies as an upset. LBP is favored to beat JSerra and likewise Santa Marg is favored to beat MValley.

[insidetrinity]

I think it’s reasonable to call poly over jserra an upset. I know calpreps projects jserra to win

[watchersince68]

Outside
Ok I am picking 1 1/2 upsets, Poly over JSerra maybe it is maybe it ain't.

[hit the lights]

SC is not going to beat RC! SC belongs in D-2. It will be 50-30ish, RC.
Ranked too high.

[Bigbear]

MD
Poly
MV
Chaminade
Bosco
RC
SM
CC

[Omar Bongo]

Not sure why anyone thinks Poly should be favored over JSerra. The Jackrabbits lost Friday to Gardena Serra who's ranked 25th in the state...JSerra is ranked 25th in the nation.

[OutOfState]

Based on talent alone Poly should be a semifinal team along with MD, Bosco and Centennial. But year in and year out it is the same story - poor coaching, poor special teams, and meltdowns on the field.
CalPreps ratings hurt Poly because the Moore League is a joke so I think a line of 14 points is misleading and scewed by their league. I think the Poly/JSerra game is a pick-em. I also think Chaminade -15 over OLU is too much. I’d take that bet any day. Chaminade certainly should be favored but it won’t be a shocker in my opinion if OLU beats them.