- John Q. Public
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So. Bolton's out and there's believable rumors about softening sanctions on Iran and going along with the JCPOA in all ways except re-joining it, which has sent the price of oil down by almost $4 in the last two days. So far. It's still early.
And he's postponed his tariff increase by two weeks and China has dropped a few minor ones on their end (Dow up 300 on the news). He's still blaming the Fed for holding back the economy but the real cause - worldwide - is his freaking tariffs. He holds the cards on that and I think he's starting to get the hint. And he's starting to push strongly for Congress to act on NAFTA 1.01.
I don't know how he's going to sell it to the most hardcore members of his base but easing tensions with Iran and de-throttling the economy would play yugely with swing voters, some secular Conservatives and people with 401k's. No idea how he'd sell an Iran deal to Netanyahu or evangelicals - or the current Republican Party - but lower oil prices = votes.
And no idea how Democrats are going to react, other than "See? Obama was right." but all of the above would sure strengthen Donald's candidacy and it's starting to look like the people behind the scenes realize it. He'd still be a dangerous moron but he'd be a much stronger dangerous moron.
John Q. Public
All this with a trade war going on with China and the EU in a mess and all the things you just posted. People in their late 20's and 30's are making real money for the first time in their lives. Are they going to throw that away for Warren or Sanders? We still have a long way to go before the 2020 elections and anything can happen but I just don't see people going to the polls thinking about Iran, NAFTA 1.01 and oil at $60.00.