Open/D1 Playoff Thoughts

[SoCalFball]

5 locks currently for the D1 playoff
MD, Bosco, Cen10, Mission and Jserra

Most likely will make it
Bishop Amat, Calabasas, Sierra Canyon

Needs help/need a upset to get in
Servite, San Clemente, Serra

[sammy swordsman]

Are you saying that when Servite beats JSerra by 2+ scores, that JSerra would still be a lock anyway?

[SoCalFball]

That would qualify as a upset so obviously things would change if that happened lol

[sammy swordsman]

Why would that be considered an upset? Have you seen both teams play? JSerra has no offensive firepower. Servite (if they stay healthy) should out score the Lions.

[daddyooo]

JSerra plays good defense. If they can have nice long possessions and put pressure on the QB, they win. Should be a great game!

[FriarJoe]

Good try. But don’t the CIF rankings govern this? With Servite’s close loss to Bosco it’s hard to imagine even a 4 loss Servite team doesn’t stay in that top 8 somehow (although I hope they would be in D2). Some of these probable teams may not have the resume to be ranked in the top 8 except maybe Amat if they win their league.

[Playthegame]

Yes SOS + results will doom everyone in contention for D-1 Spot excluding MD...of course...

[credofriar]

JSerra not a "lock". Could easily finish 4th in trinity at 6-4.
That wont get them in Div 1.

Loser of the servite/jserra game is front runner in D2. Winner has to play MD or Bosco in first playoff game.

So am I rooting for my friars to loose?

[OutOfState]

Loser of the servite/jserra game is front runner in D2. Winner has to play MD or Bosco in first playoff game.

Teams from the same league are never matched up in the 1st round of the playoffs. That has always been the rule in the past. I'm not sure if this will change this year with 8 teams in the bracket.

[hit the lights]

After this year, Bosco wont be a lock anymore.

[Bigbear]

As of right now, these are the CIF-SS rankings for D1:

1. Mater Dei
2. Bosco
3. Centennial
4. Mission Viejo
5. JSerra
6. Servite
7. Calabasas
8. Bishop Amat

[OutOfState]

That would be great if these rankings hold as we get to see MV play JSerra finally.

[Omar Bongo]

After the Friars' performance against Bosco, a Servite-CC matchup would be interesting as well...when was the last time they played?

[WantTheNFLBack714]

because Bosco is losing too much talent to graduation after this season?

[FriarJoe]

Bosco will just bring in another crop of transfers to fill the voids. That’s what they do.

[SoCalFball]

After the Friars' performance against Bosco, a Servite-CC matchup would be interesting as well...when was the last time they played?

Never!

[Omar Bongo]

Interesting. Wonder if that has anything to do with the Friars' "Corona Shuttle" of the prior decade

Anyway, if Servite keeps playing like they did last week that would be a great first-round matchup...

[hit the lights]

MD, as long as Rollo is there
Servite- making strides, next couple years.
Bosco- will still be in the hunt, but big drop off after this year.
Jserra- Hot now, but MV going to take the show over with loaded 2021 class.
Calabasas- undicplined, alot of talent , but weak in the trenches.
Narbonne- same!
CC- could be in the finals, with MD.

[daddyooo]

JSerra's 2021 class pretty loaded from what I hear. They compete for some, but not all, of the same players.

[2002tony]

Are you saying that when Servite beats JSerra by 2+ scores, that JSerra would still be a lock anyway?

may only cause them to switch places in the ranking if they both beat Olu and SM. I will explain below

JSerra not a "lock". Could easily finish 4th in trinity at 6-4.
That wont get them in Div 1.

Loser of the servite/jserra game is front runner in D2. Winner has to play MD or Bosco in first playoff game

one thing to remember is that losing to MD or Bosco wont really effect a teams placement because those two teams are ranked 1 and 2 ( everyone feels (and selection committee) that all the other teams in D1/2 would lose those games too).

A loss to each other (Servite or JS) just states who is 3 and who is 4. AND just will have which team is above the other in the top 8 ( again as long as they both beat SM and OLu)

If you look at the rest of the field you would see a mess as far as the top 8 goes and all the factors a selection committee may have to consider.

Lets just say MV does beat San Clemente. With SC loss to CDM also they are not going to rise any higher then 8 if that. May just stay at 9 or 10

In the Marmonte you have Oaks Christian at 2-4 and still has to play Calabasas 5-2. Calabasas 2 losses are to Serra (team no longer in top 10) and JSerra, so I dont see them climbing over them

in the Southwestern - Vista Murrieta 4-2 with their two losses to Norco and OLu will keep them below the top 10 and they still have to play 6-0 Chaparral (Div 4) and a 5-1 Murrieta Valley who has one loss to that Div 4 Chaperral and just 1 win against a team in their own Div (Oaks Christian). That is probably what has kept them out of the top 10.

LBPoly is 3-3 and will finish 7-3 most likely and is a strong contender to get to 8 but it is that loss to Serra that may be hard for the selection committee to place them over Serra ( and Serra may not get there either)

The Mission league has all kinds of issues right now.

BA will most likely win out and stay in the top 8
BA just beat Alemany this weekend 25-24.

Alemany has a big win over Oaks Christian 44-7 that will play big when you look at who lost to Oaks Christian (Sierra Canyon). Sierra Canyon still has Grace Brethren to play and may lose that game. That may keep them out of the top 8 also.

Chaminade is at 3-3 right now and has only 1 signature win so far and that was over ND. They lost to Oaks C and Paraclete (ND only good win)

ND 4-2 so far and has lost to Servite and Chaminade. They have no big wins so far unless you want to count their win over Paraclete. I dont see them beating anyone else in league.

Loyola is in D4 but this past weekend Loyola beat Serra 24-7 , that loss drops Serra out of the top 10 where they were 7 last week.

Serra is at 4-2 and still has to play BA and Alemany which both may beat them. So I dont see them moving up either if they lose those games

So there is no clear cut teams that could be selected over a 6-4 JSerra or a Servite right now as long as they beat OLu and SM.