2019 Sunset D2/D3

Bick
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2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Bick » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:33 am

Back for another year...looking at beating General Hospital for the longest running saga.

As for the Sunset, pretty sure the now usual suspects of CDM, Edison and Los Al will make up the top 3. I'll go with FV at the bottom, HB just above, and Newport making the move out of the cellar to #4.

The top 3 you can shake a tree, and see where they land. CDM should have the top scoring offense in the league this year. Los Al narrowly outscored CDM in league last year, but CDM has some well documented big time horses in the skill positions.

On defense, I think it will be Los Al, Edison and CDM in that order of scoring D allowed in league. Los Al lost a lot, but have produced at a stingy level the past 3 years despite regularly playing underclassmen. We'll see if the D staff can whip something up again this year.



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Fordama
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Fordama » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:24 pm

Maybe next year Los Al will find a cheesy-assed reason not to play at CdM like the Sea Kings did this last season.
This country of the United States was not built by those who waited and rested and wished to look behind them.---JFK

Bick
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Bick » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:43 pm

Hopefully CIF will amend the rules so as not to allow something like that to happen in the future. Seems the home team should have discretion over the time and venue, given they are charged with the responsibility of securing a CIF approved venue in the first place.

Bick
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Bick » Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:18 pm

Copied from another thread, here's what I've got for the D2 teams this coming season ranked by the formula used in 2018 rankings, adjusted by dropping 2016, and adding 2018 results:

Rancho Verde 110.05
Norco 109.94
Notre Dame/SO 109.83
Valencia/Valencia 109.64
Alemany 108.20
Calabasas 107.27
Tesoro 105.63
Heritage 105.17
Cajon High School 103.51
Westlake 103.32
Los Alamitos 102.64
Edison 102.17
Sierra Canyon 100.43
Cathedral 100.17
La Habra 99.51
San Juan Hills 99.29
Redlands East Valley 98.15
Grace Brethren 97.68

The top 4 teams are separated by less than half a point!

That said, this is what the division would look like using a 60/40 weighting of 2018 / 2017 school strength & playoff points only, instead of over-weighting the league and strength of schedule.

Vista Murrieta 250.75
Grace Brethren 250.55
Servite 247.8
Santa Margarita 247.4
Murrieta Valley 246.95
Sierra Canyon 245.65
Notre Dame/SO 244.85
Heritage 243.95
Corona del Mar 241.1
Los Alamitos 240.05
Westlake 238.4
Capistrano Valley 237.45
Lawndale 237.1
Cathedral 235.4
Citrus Hill 235.05
Valencia/Valencia 235
Alemany 234.4
Tesoro 234.4

La Habra, Edison, Villa Park would be 1-2-3 in D3.

SK80
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby SK80 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:57 pm

WELCOME...! =D>

"SUNSET D2/D3" Thread..... :thumbsup:
:yeahthat:

Looking forward to going into syndication... @BICK!

Interesting math calculations have teams all over the ranks... so which way will it more likely be...? :eh?: I assume the first grouping.....

Bick
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Bick » Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:12 pm

Unfortunately, yes...the first one. I've yet to hear a sound reason for over-weighting the league and schedule in the formula, when it's already factored into the calpreps rating.

Here's D3 their way...

Capistrano Valley 97.37
Santiago/Corona 97.04
Moorpark 95.82
Paraclete 95.81
Loyola 94.55
St. Francis 94.35
Citrus Hill 93.55
Villa Park 93.45
Corona del Mar 93.39
Camarillo 93.31
Hart 92.46
Roosevelt, Eleanor 92.02
Downey 91.86
Paramount 91.74
Lawndale 90.80
Palos Verdes 90.71
Murrieta Mesa 90.33
Yucaipa 87.75
Damien 87.64

...and my way

La Habra 234.25
Edison 233.4
Villa Park 232.95
Moorpark 232.8
Paraclete 229.85
San Juan Hills 227.7
Redlands East Valley 227.55
St. Francis 227.45
Paramount 225.95
Santiago/Corona 225.75
Aquinas 225.75
Camarillo 225.15
South Hills 223
Palos Verdes 222.05
Lompoc 221.8
Culver City 219.6
Oxnard 219.1
Downey 218.1
Glendora 217.35


You have an opinion on either?

Sixth Man
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Sixth Man » Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:58 pm

RR said Norco will have something like 1& returning starters. The favorites in DII?

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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Bick » Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:48 am

With returning at least 3 starting OL, and all their leading skill guys, they might very well be one of the most talented again. But Norco needs to past the 2nd round in the post-season to be considered the favorite. 3 straight losses since going to the new divisional format. It seems something's not right over there.

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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Sixth Man » Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:55 pm

Well it's certainly not a lack of talent or size at Norco.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Omar Bongo » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:08 pm

Maybe schedule tougher teams? With the exception of CC, Upland was the toughest team by far (Nat. #95, CA #16) that they faced all season
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Sixth Man
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Sixth Man » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:58 am

They played 3 division 1 teams including VM, RC, and Servite. I'm not sure their schedule is the problem or if they have a problem. It's funny, Upland was the clear favorite two years ago and went down and then was fairly anonymous this year and won it. It's almost like you have to have it all come together, stay healthy, and get some breaks to win it in this division.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Omar Bongo » Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:55 pm

Sixth Man wrote:They played 3 division 1 teams including VM, RC, and Servite.

Division is meaningless in that it has nothing to do with how good you are this year...Servite lost to Villa Park. As I said, besides CC, Upland was the toughest team by far that they faced all season...were they as prepared for the step up in competition as they could have been?
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

SK80
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby SK80 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:25 pm

@ Bongo, so are you dissing Villa Park and Piferi? your ITALICS seem to say so.

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Omar Bongo
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Omar Bongo » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:04 pm

My point was that D-4 Villa Park beat D-1 Servite...what division you're in has nothing to do with how good you are this year[/quote]
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

Bick
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Bick » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:22 pm

Pre-league schedule strength of D2 playoff teams / playoff round advanced to:

Norco had the 3rd toughest pre-league schedule in the division. Doesn't seem there's much correlation between strength of schedule and playoff performance in 2018 in D2.

Calabasas 50.3 / Semi
La Habra 46.2 / 1st
Norco 41.7 / 2nd
Westlake 41.7 / 1st
REV 40.6 / 1st
Edison 37.5 / 1st
Notre Dame 32.2 / Semi
Upland 29.3 / Champ
Cathedral 29.1 / 1st
SJ Hills 28.3 / 2nd
Los Al 28.1 / 2nd
Tesoro 27.8 / 1st
Heritage 27.1 / 1st
Alemany 26.8 / 2nd
St Francis 24.2 / 1st
Rancho Verde 1.9 / Finals

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Omar Bongo
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Omar Bongo » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:53 pm

Which is why I phrased in the form of a question. Obviously SOS is not the be-all/end-all, but as I said, after CC Norco's next toughest opponent was Upland, and FWIW, they lost both games...
Last edited by Omar Bongo on Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:01 am, edited 1 time in total.

Bick
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Bick » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:01 am

What do you mean by a top tier team?

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Omar Bongo
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Omar Bongo » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:04 am

Sorry, edited before I saw your question. You said, "Norco needs to past the 2nd round in the post-season to be considered the favorite." So how about the Top 4?
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

Bick
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Bick » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:20 am

They've been a top 4 rated team in D2 each of the past 3 years, but can't get out of the 2nd round. They'll be rated top 4 again. Unless whatever is wrong over there gets resolved (assuming there actually is something wrong over there), they'll not make the final 4. That's what really matters, right?

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Omar Bongo
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Re: 2019 Sunset D2/D3

Postby Omar Bongo » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:28 am

My feeling is being rated a pre-season top 4 and finishing one win short (in a 3-season sample) isn't enough reason to declare there's "something wrong"...maybe they're just overrated?
"Trump is what he is, a floundering, inarticulate jumble of gnawing insecurities and not-at-all compensating vanities, which is pathetic."
George Will

"How stupid is our country?"
Donald Trump

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